the climate brief Accurate Reporting of Climate Science

Five hundred US-based earth scientists have published a  statement that "science unequivocally demonstrates" humans are affecting the environment through climate change. But although statements of consensus have become commonplace over the past decade, surveys indicate people still believe scientists disagree. So is it really possible to create effective messages about consensus? 

What is scientific consensus? 

Scientific consensus is a measure of where the weight of evidence lies in a particular discipline. In the case of climate change, the weight of evidence indicates that human-produced greenhouse gases are trapping heat in the atmosphere, causing it to warm - and it's a position the vast majority of scientists subscribe to. 

Over the past decade, scholars have  attempted to  measure how strong this consensus in the climate science community is. Most recently, the climate science blog, Skeptical Science, produced a study indicating that of 12,000 papers on climate change 97 per cent of those that expressed a view on the causes of climate change said it was mostly down to human activity - a very similar result to that of previous studies. 

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Matt Ridley's misguided climate policy
Climate skeptic Matt Ridley is wrong to use a recent paper on climate sensitivity to argue that climate policy is "hopelessly misguided", argues Dana Nuccitelli.
The Guardian 

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China Poised to Launch Much-Anticipated Carbon-Trading Project
The first phase of a carbon cap-and-trade pilot project in China will cover 638 companies that produce 38 percent of the city's carbon emissions in the southern city of Shenzhen.
Yale Environment 360

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Investing in low-carbon technologies and decarbonising the power sector by 2030 could save the country £25 to £45 billion, according to the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) in a new report. But to get there the government must avoid a 'dash for gas' approach and think long term, it warns.  

The government is planning big changes to the power sector. It aims to shift to a low carbon system and maintain energy security - while keeping costs down - through a policy package known as  Electricity Market Reform (EMR). But in a  report out today, the CCC says that the government's lack of clarity about where energy policy is going, and particularly the suggestion that it might also be  expanding the amount of power the country gets from gas, is threatening the entire process.  

If the country is really going to shift to a low-carbon energy system, the committee says the government must think more strategically.

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Green energy could save Britain up to £100 billion, says Government climate advisers
Paying for more wind farms and nuclear power stations may be costly in the short term but will save the country up to £100 billion in the long run, the Committee on Climate Change has suggested. But this clashes with the pursuit of gas, reports The Independent.
The Telegraph 

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Greg Barker: 'The era of negawatts has arrived'
The energy and climate change Minister insists this week that energy saving measures are businesses' "greatest ally".
BusinessGreen

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A new paper suggesting temperatures might not rise as much as some models predict in the near future has been interpreted in some corners - notably by  Matt Ridley in the Times - as a sign that climate change no longer poses a problem. But the authors have spoken out against Ridley's arguments, highlighting why pinpointing earth's sensitivity to greenhouse gases relies on more than one estimate.

The story stems from a  letter in Nature Geoscience on Sunday with a new estimate of what scientists call equilibrium climate sensitivity. That's the total warming we can expect from a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, compared with pre-industrial levels.

Climate sensitivity is important because the higher it is, the more warming there will be. In its 2007 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated a likely range of between  two and 4.5 degrees Celsius, with a best estimate of three degrees.

More than one way to estimate climate sensitivity

There are different ways to go about calculating climate sensitivity - which is part of the reason the IPCC's range is so large. The new study used what's called an energy budget model, which used land, atmosphere, ice and ocean temperatures between 1970 to 2009 to see how warming in all parts of the climate system has changed in that time. We wrote more about the new paper  here.

Scientists can also use natural recorders of temperature - called  climate proxies - to look at how earth's temperature has changed in response to greenhouse gases throughout its distant past. The third way is using complex climate models to simulate how processes affecting temperature rise are likely to evolve in the future.

Uncertainties about some of these processes - particularly how clouds affect the rate of warming - means climate model estimates can vary quite widely.

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Monday's tornado in Oklahoma highlights the threat extreme weather poses to human life, and has prompted some to ask if human-caused climate change is partly to blame. Unfortunately, that's a questions scientists still can't answer.

The overwhelming response in the  media and  online in the wake of the tornado has done a pretty good job of accurately reflecting the science, which is so far unclear over whether theres a link between climate change and tornadoes. This statement from scientist Michael Wehner sums up the situation pretty well:

"With tornadoes, what we don't know is as much as what we do know."

Tornadoes 101

Before we dig into the science in more detail, here's a quick introduction to  what tornadoes are and how they form.

Tornadoes are narrow, spinning columns of air reaching from a the base of a thunderstorm down to the ground. They actually only account for a fraction of the energy released in a thunderstorm, but that energy is concentrated on a small area.

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Parliament's Energy and Climate Change (ECC) committee has told the government to get a move on with monitoring the success of its core energy efficiency policies in a new report, out today.

The ECC committee is concerned the government hasn't worked out what a successful energy efficiency rollout would look like, let alone how to assess whether it meets those criteria. Says the report:

"It is unacceptable that, three years into the life of this parliament, ministers are incapable of defining the actual goals of one of the coalition's flagship policies."

Despite the government's assertion that the  Green Deal is intended as a  long-term project, press attention has focused on  the number of people to sign up  - or not - over its first few months in operation.

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Households 'ripped off' over energy bills as Ofgem says investigating company profits too 'intrusive'
Families are at risk of being ripped off over their energy bills because the regulator is refusing to find out why companies are making "outrageous" profits, MPs said today.
Telegraph 

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Businesses hail plans for energy efficiency payments
Businesses and green groups have welcomed government plans to pay companies to curb their energy use, despite concerns that its chosen method for driving reductions in power demand could fail deliver the £2.3bn of promised economic savings by 2030. The Times criticises the move, saying consumers will foot the bill.
BusinessGreen

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A group of scientists has just published a new estimate of how sensitive earth is to rising greenhouse gases. Their value for 'climate sensitivity' is at the low end of what scientists have previously suggested - but there's still a lot of uncertainty.

Importantly, the study shows slower surface temperature rise over the past decade doesn't change scientists' projections of how much warming we can expect in the long term.

What scientists call 'equilibrium climate sensitivity' is the warming we can expect from a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, compared with pre-industrial levels. It's a number scientists are still trying to pin down - and it's important, because the higher climate sensitivity is, the more warming there will be.

In its last report, published in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated a likely range of climate sensitivity of between  two and 4.5 degrees Celsius, with a best estimate of three degrees. But it didn't rule out lower or higher values and since then, scientists have continued to try to narrow the range of uncertainty surrounding the number.

Energy inventory

The short  new study, published as a letter in Nature Geoscience, is based on measurements of how much heat the land, ocean, ice and atmosphere have absorbed between 1970 and 2009.

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'Saloon bar politics' by Ukip could harm Britain's climate change credibility and drag Tories to right on environment, warns minister
Ed Davey suggests vested interests and parts of the media are to blame for a rise in climate change scepticism, which could be further fuelled by the growing popularity of UKIP.
The Independent 

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Households to get doubled subsidies of £2,300 off green boilers to boost flagging renewable scheme
The government is doubling the value of grants available for homeowners looking to install certain green energy measures until March 2013.
The Telegraph

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