Expect to see more global temperature records tumble
over the next few years, suggests the Met Office's new
forecast. Global average surface temperatures during 2015 to
2019 are expected to stay high, with a good chance of beating 2014
for the hottest year on record.
Every year the Met Office releases what's called a "decadal
forecast". It's designed to give us an idea of what we can expect
in the next few years.
It's new forecast, released
online this week, says global temperature out to 2019 is
expected to be in the range of 0.18 and 0.46 degrees Celsius above
the long-term average.
This means we're likely to see the mercury climb
higher than in 2014, which saw a global temperature of 0.26 degrees
Celsius above the long-term average.
Decadal forecasts, also known as "near-term"
forecasts, take into account natural fluctuations in the climate,
as well as human influences.
The Met Office predicts global temperature over the next five
years will be between 0.18 and 0.46 degrees above the 1981-2010
average. That's 0.76 to 1.04 degrees above pre-industrial
The graph below shows the new Met Office forecast
(blue shading) and real-world surface temperatures (black line),
including the most recent data for 2014.
Observed global surface temperature (black
line) and Met Office decadal forecast for 2015-2019 (blue shading)
relative to 1981-2010. Previous predictions are shown in red. 22
model simulations from CMIP5 that have not been initialised with
current observations are shown in green. Source: Met Office decadal
The new forecast slightly edges up global temperatures
expected over the next few years, compared to last year's forecast
for 2014 to 2018. That one predicted global temperatures between
0.18 and 0.43 above the long-term average. But the difference is