Could we see a republican-style shift in climate politics in the UK?
John McCain - green skeletons in his closet?
flickr/soggydan
The Republicans took control of the US House of Representatives
last week for the first time in 15 years. Whether they will send
the US "
back to the Stone Age" on climate policy remains to be
seen, but the signs are not good. A quick summary: There are now
only
four Republicans who will publicly admit that climate change is
real and caused by human activities. With Republicans and some
democrats opposing it, the US climate bill failed
to pass through the Senate. The Select Committee devoted to
climate issues has been
disbanded. Climate sceptics are taking
control of other key Committees and there's speculation as to
who will launch a new investigation into climate science or climate
policy first.
The shift in US conservative orthodoxy towards climate
scepticism has been startling. It's easy to forget how quickly the
political landscape has changed. Between 2003 and 2007 prominent
Republican John McCain actively supported the introduction of
climate legislation. During the
Presidential campaign in 2008, he said that
"We stand warned by serious and credible
scientists across the world that time is short and the dangers are
great.… A cap-and-trade policy will send a signal that will be
heard and welcomed all across the American economy."
By
March 2010 he was describing climate science as "inexact" and
possibly "flawed" and opposing climate legislation. Republican Fred
Upton, now leading the charge against the EPA's attempts to
regulate greenhouse gas emissions, has followed
a similar path. Now, Republican Presidential
candidates are seen as vulnerable for having "green
skeletons in their closet."
Rather than political whim, the shift towards scepticism by the
Republicans appears to be deliberate realpolitik following a
sharp increase in US public climate scepticism the rise of the
sceptic-friendly
Tea Party movement.
It's clear that there are some underlying similarities in the UK
- in 2010 we've seen a shift in public
opinion to become more sceptical about climate change, and
considerable opposition to climate policies from some
conservative backbenchers.
However, in the UK the political debate is in quite a different
place.
For whatever reason - impartiality regulations, perhaps - we
don't have a powerful broadcaster like Fox News pushing an
ideological climate skeptic agenda. While sceptic thinktanks do
exist, there isn't an extensive network of them, as there is in the
US.
Perhaps most obviously, climate is not a bipartisan issue. There
is a striking level of agreement across the mainstream political
spectrum that action on climate change in the form of emissions
cuts is necessary. The Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems have
all nailed their colours firmly to the mast of addressing climate
change - the Conservatives made it a central feature of their
rebranding.
For the moment, at least, it seems unlikely that we could see a
Republican-magnitude shift in party line from any of the main UK
parties.