“I’m a policy wonk”: Stern makes the case for change
- 23 Feb 2012, 16:30
- Ros Donald
Time is of the essence in creating the necessary response to
climate change, Professor Nicholas Stern told the audience at the
London School of Economics in the second of a three-lecture series
making the case for a new energy-industrial revolution that
transforms the way we consume and produce.
Last night, Stern looked at how public policy and the scope for
technological change could create a new industrial revolution, to
mirror the "waves of innovation" that have yielded leaps forward
like the rapid advances in information technology over recent
decades. According to him, the big difference this time round is
the need for government input to correct what he famously branded
the
"market failure" of unchecked greenhouse gas
rises.
Stern couches his vision for the new economy in the ideas of creative
destruction and self-creating growth. Revolutions involve
plenty of discovery, dislocation and disruption, he says. "If we do
this well we'll see two to three decades of greater growth" he
argues, as well as explosive change.
The challenge
Sounds exciting, but what does it mean? Stern believes
insufficient action since the release of his assessment of the
economics of climate change, the Stern
Review, in 2006, means the world now needs to cut emissions
drastically if countries are going to stop warming breaking the
UN's
two degree limit for acceptable warming. He made a clear call
for government policies to adapt to and mitigate warming, arguing
that adaptation to climate change becomes "extremely tough" as soon
as temperatures go up by more than one degree.
One change Stern says he would make to the original review is to
revisit the suggestion that emissions kept within the range of
450-550 parts per million (ppm) C02 would lead to manageable
warming. Now, he says, we know that a concentration of 550 ppm
would lead to a median three degrees of warming - which is way too
high, meaning that the 450ppm mark is more like it.
Stern flags two other important developments - a big increase in
"cleantech" patents over the past five years in low carbon
technologies, and the falling costs of producing energy from these
cleantech sources as technology has improved and multiplied. But,
he says, limited progress in the years since the Stern Review was
published means more high carbon infrastructure has been locked
into the system, making carbon cuts more difficult in the long
run.
Policy hostility
Stern notes that the current political climate, with the US
Republican party's hostility to climate measures and UK wrangling
over carbon targets, can make the possibility of significant and
timely change in the global economy feel far off.
But he points to the huge opposition to UK legislation to stop
drink driving in the 1960s as an example of changing attitudes over
the years. Since the law came in, the opinion that alcohol limits
for drivers was denying working people the freedom to spend their
money as they wished (sound
familiar?) has evolved into a widespread view that drink
driving is dangerous and unacceptable, Stern says.
This has happened because values have changed as the discussions
and evidence in favour of the policy have evolved, he continues. He
argues that communities are key in helping this uptake along, and
that the rollout of new technologies is essential in broadcasting
the benefits of new technology and greater efficiency.
Progress
But while policy seems to be stalling in some cases Stern says
many countries are moving rapidly on the issue - China's 12th
five-year plan contains positive plans for renewable energy,
although he believes this is currently being offset by the
country's growth. Meanwhile, in Bangladesh, one company plans to
roll out microsolar power off the back of falling solar
costs.
As for fossil fuel technologies, Stern says we must learn to
"burn them in a clean way or stop using them". He says shale
gas could be a bridge technology as part of a move toward a cleaner
energy system - but only if it replaces coal, not renewables.
Stern is clearly an optimist about technology. In the
private sector, he notes, clean energy investment has increased
rapidly, along with research into nanobatteries, nuclear waste as a
potential fuel source, carbon capture and storage for producing
cement and solar paints.
At a skeptic meeting earlier in the day, one speaker said the
lectures could be summarised as Stern talking about Stern. But I'd
counter that what we saw last night was actually a pretty rigorous
examination of our options if we want to grow using limited
resources. If you want to read more about any of this, the slides
are available
here - they're well worth a look.
Stern will deliver the third lecture in the series, Climate
change and the new industrial revolution - how we can respond and
prosper, tonight at LSE.