Indonesia would not increase its emissions over the
next 15 years if it receives international support, according to
Carbon Brief analysis of its climate pledge to the UN.
intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) pledges
a 29-41% reduction in emissions by 2030, compared to business as
usual. The upper end of this range, conditional on "support from
international cooperation", would see emissions in 2030 remain at
recently reported levels.
Indonesia's pledge is significant. It is ranked in the
top 10 and possibly even the top five emitting nations. However,
there is wide uncertainty over its emissions, which are dominated
by variable deforestation and fires. Carbon Brief has run the
numbers on the pledge to gauge what it means.
No finance request
Indonesia's INDC says it aims to decarbonise its economy
"in a phased approach". This pathway will be incorporated in its
national development plan for 2019-2024, it says. The INDC extends
an existing pledge to cut emissions by 26% against
business-as-usual (BAU) emissions in 2020.
The INDC says the 2030 emissions targets will be met
"Improved land use and spatial
planning, energy conservation and the promotion of clean and
renewable energy sources, and improved waste management".
It adds that inefficient energy use has been
encouraged by fossil fuel subsidies, which President Widodo
started to reduce. However, the INDC lacks specifics on the
policy priorities it sets out.
draft, the final INDC also omits a request for $6bn of
international climate finance to fund its 41% conditional
pledge. This figure had been reported by the
Andhyta Utami, researcher with World Resources
Institute (WRI) Indonesia, tells Carbon Brief it is not clear why
the finance request had been omitted. However, the figure had
caused confusion, Utami says, because it clearly excluded much
higher investment needs towards a pledge to source 23% of
Indonesia's energy from renewables by 2025.
government document costs the renewables target at $108bn,
she adds. Utami says:
"Indonesia could be more
transparent on how much international assistance it will need to
reach its conditional target...It should publish its financing
needs before Paris."
Utami also expressed concern over the make-up of the
23% goal, which represents a significant and
ambitious leap compared to renewables' current 4% share of
the country's energy mix. Bioenergy, including biofuels and biomass
from crops such as palm oil, are slated to make up 10% of
Indonesia's energy mix in 2025, potentially putting pressure on
already-threatened forest lands.
WRI argues that solar, hydro and ocean energy should make
up the majority of the renewables target instead. This would ease
the pressure on land, which the government also expects to make
Indonesia self-sufficient in food.
Alongside growing renewables, Indonesia has
major plans to expand its coal-fired electricity
generation, with coal use in the country already having doubled in
a decade. This expansion is rapidly increasing emissions and will
squeeze the country's ability to stick to its climate pledge.
Coal expansion could "undermine" Indonesia's efforts
on renewables, WRI says. Coal is not mentioned in Indonesia's
As well as being hazy on policy and financing needs,
it is also difficult to gauge the ambition of Indonesia's INDC
emissions targets. This is despite the document including a
projected figure for BAU emissions in 2030 of 2.9bn tonnes of CO2
The pledge to reduce emissions by at least 29%
compared to this trajectory means an effective cap in 2030 of
2GtCO2e. With the more ambitious 41% reduction compared to BAU, the
cap would be 1.7GtCO2e. The
UK's emissions are 0.5GtCO2e and China's around