the climate brief Accurate Reporting of Climate Science

The decline of Arctic sea ice in 2012 is a "clear and alarming sign of climate change" - that's the verdict of a report today from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The report, which investigates last year's major climate and weather events, found 2012 was the 27th consecutive year with above average global temperature.

Top ten warmest year on record

Global average temperature in 2012 was 0.45 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1961 to 1990 long term average, according to the report. That's the ninth warmest on record.

Natural climate fluctuations from year to year mean scientists  don't necessarily expect each year to be successively warmer than the last. The important point is that the world is significantly warmer than it was a few decades ago.

The years between 2001 and 2012 were among the top 13 warmest on record:

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The UK has a world leading carbon tax but is lagging behind on implementing other green measures, according to a new report. Financial advisors KPMG  ranked 21 of the world's major economies according to how well they use taxation to incentivise low carbon investment. While the UK is number 1 for climate taxation, it seems the government isn't doing enough to incentive new and innovative ways to lower emissions.

UK leads climate taxation

KPMG puts the UK top of the class for policies which penalise carbon dioxide emissions. But it's unclear if the government would want the accolade, as it continues to try and convince industry that green policies don't put them at an  economic disadvantage.

The UK's main climate taxation policy is the  carbon price floor. The price floor sets aminimum price companies have to pay to emit carbon dioxide - currently £15.70 per tonne of carbon dioxide. If the EU carbon price is below this - it is currently  around £2.50 per tonne - companies pay the difference to the UK government. The policy is unpopular with both industry and environmental groups that say it is simply a way of  making lots of cash for the Treasury without having any real impact on emissions.

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Energy bills are going up. But the government says green policies will leave consumers better off in the long run. Much of this relies on the assumption that people will upgrade household goods like TVs and washing machines for more efficient models, so we asked the government to share how it worked the savings out.

Savings from green policies

The government released its new calculations a few weeks ago. It estimates that by 2020, green policies will have put energy bills up £280, but will have brought them down by £450. Although bills will still go up, it promises that the policies will leave people £166 better off than if no measures were introduced. But the government's assumptions haven't impressed everyone.  

A  Telegraph article lambasted the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) for assuming hard-pressed families can "shell out" for new appliances when money all over the country is distinctly tight. It says "...millions of households, especially older people, will not necessarily be replacing their appliances within the next seven years." 

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Pietro Naj-Oleari

The European Parliament yesterday  rejected backloading, a plan to withhold emissions permits from the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) to combat oversupply in the market. So can the ETS recover? Two experts give their views.

Without backloading, ETS reform may be undermined

Sarah Deblock, policy director for European affairs for the International Emissions Trading Association

Backloading is not new. First known as the set-aside proposal, the European Parliament originally proposed it as a solution to address oversupply in the market around two years ago. So why has the parliament now rejected backloading?

In recent months, MEPs' positions across the political spectrum have fractured. Yesterday, nearly 70 per cent of MEPs in the influential right-of-centre EPP group, 86 per cent of the European Conservatives and Reformists, and 40 per cent of the liberal ALDE group rejected the proposal. Just 19 votes out of a total of 754 swung the decision.

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Chris Upson

Last night, Channel 4 news and ITV attempted a discussion of topical climate science - with varying degrees of success. Each posed the question of what could be contributing to this year's prolonged cold winter in the UK. We take a look at what happened next.

Channel 4 

A rather unhelpfully-titled report - 'Did scientists get it wrong about global warming?' - began proceedings on Channel 4 last night.  

Science editor, Tom Clarke, described how the UK has seen "unprecedented" cold weather this winter, asking: 

"In a world of global warming, why does it feel like it's getting colder?"

Clarke acknowledges cold winters in the UK don't necessarily give a good picture of what's happening to the climate, but adds that "of late global temperatures haven't been going up much, either".  

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Climate change optimists Bjorn Lomborg and Fraser Nelson published articles over the Bank Holiday weekend claiming current policies aimed at cutting emissions are impoverishing us needlessly - warmer temperatures will actually make us richer, and reduce winter deaths, they say. In a leader piece, the Sunday Times says Lomborg's arguments "make a lot of sense", and that the government has failed to take account of the costs of its green policies. But does the claim that we shouldn't try to cut emissions now stand up?

The articles claim the UK government has got it wrong on climate change. With carbon-cutting policies like supporting renewables and energy efficiency through levies on  energy bills, they say the government is making it harder for people to heat their homes when in fact, some warming will be good for us, reducing winter deaths and boosting crop yields. 

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Credit: Yanni Koutsomitis

The EU emissions trading scheme has been  struggling to stay afloat, and the latest attempt to save it has stalled in the European Parliament. New research suggests a fundamental rethink - and abandoning some of its key principles - is needed to save the scheme.

A new report from the London School of Economics (LSE) says the EU needs to be more active in influencing supply and demand in the emissions trading scheme (ETS). It produced the proposal in response to a European Commission consultation on long term structural reforms to the scheme. The commission is looking at ways to prevent the carbon price hitting January's record low of below 3 euros in the future. We take a look at the proposals trying to reboot the scheme.

Backloading

Companies buy and sell permits to emit carbon dioxide under the EU ETS. Each permit allows participants to emit a tonne of carbon dioxide. If they emit less than their permits allow, they can sell the excess for a profit. The scheme is meant to reward those that cut their emissions, and it relies on a shortage of permits. 

But the ETS has a real problem with oversupply. There are currently too many permits in the system which means that polluters don't need to cut their emissions and the price of permits has slid to record lows. 

The oversupply is largely due to the  economic slowdown since 2008. Energy demand is low, so power plants - one of the main sources of emissions in the system - don't need all their permits.

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Gas prices spiked to their highest level in seven years yesterday, prompting fears consumer bills would also go up. The price hike leads to questions over the UK's future energy strategy: Do we want to rely on gas imports, or would decarbonising the energy sector protect the UK from a volatile market? 

The price rise, reported in the  Financial Times, comes as parliament is set to debate anamendment to the energy bill requiring the UK energy sector to decarbonise by 2030. New research by thinktank the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) suggests the amendment could be a good way to insulate the the economy from changeable fuel prices by reducing the UK's dependence on gas imports.

Volatile gas prices 

The gas price hit its highest point since 2006 yesterday at £1.15 per 100 cubic feet. Regulators and energy companies often blame  rising wholesale gas prices for increasingly steep consumer energy bills.

A power outage at a  Norwegian gas plant was the main reason for the price jump, further exacerbated by a  leaking crude oil pipeline in Scotland blocking the supply of natural gas from fields further up the production chain.

The National Grid tells Carbon Brief the "market responded exactly as it should have done", with more supplies from stores and other European imports filling the gap. National Grid says the market is  now "back in balance". 

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Why is the EU carbon price falling? A vote designed to save the EU emissions trading scheme got through an essential committee on Tuesday - a move that should have instilled market confidence. But it doesn't seem to have worked.

Even though the environment committee voted to accept a measure to withhold permits in an attempt to bolster the market - known as backloading - it actually caused the carbon price to fall. This is because the committee vote is just one small step in a long process to get the measure passed, and even if backloading is implemented it may not be enough to save the scheme in the long run.

Tuesday's vote

The environment committee voted to withhold 900 million permits from the EU carbon market by  38 to 25 votes. The plan will temporarily stop companies emitting 900 million tonnes of carbon dioxide - about  twice as much as the UK emitted in a year, according to DECC's latest figures. 

Companies buy and sell permits to emit carbon dioxide under the ETS. They can sell excess permits for a profit if they emit less than the permits they've bought - rewarding those that cut emissions. But the market is currently oversupplied. This means permits are cheap, lessening the incentive for companies to reduce their emissions.

Withholding the permits reduces the supply and is meant to lift the price. Market analysts Reuters Point Carbon before the vote said it expected approval to  lift the carbon price by €1-2. 

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A major vote in the European Parliament today may have saved the European Union emissions trading scheme (ETS) - for now. The scheme was on "life support" earlier this year as an oversupplied market set the carbon price plummeting to record lows. Now, the approved plan should boost the carbon price by €2-3 and prevent 900 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from being released into the atmosphere.

The European Parliament Environment, Public Health and Food Safety committee (ENVI) today voted by a comfortable majority to temporarily prevent 900 million permits being released into the ETS. 

The EU climate commissioner,  Connie Hedegaard, said the plan would "stop overflooding an already overflooded market". The vote comes almost a month after an advisory committee recommended Parliament reject the plan.

Damien Morris from carbon market campaign group Sandbag says the approval is "a promising first signal that policymakers recognise the current threats to the EU ETS and are prepared to salvage it".

The plan

Companies buy and sell permits to emit carbon dioxide under the EU ETS. If they emit less than their permits allow, they can sell the excess for a profit. The scheme is meant to reward those that cut their emissions, and it relies on a shortage of permits. 

The ETS is not uncontroversial - 92 environmental groups signed a letter earlier this month calling for the flawed ETS to be replaced with a more effective climate policy.

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