Analysis: Who wants what from the EU 2030 climate framework

  • 17 Oct 2014, 12:45
  • Simon Evans

CC2.0 Number 10

Ambitious EU 2030 climate targets could be crucial to unlocking a global climate deal in Paris next year. Yet EU leaders still can't agree the details, with just days to go.

Uncertainty remains because different EU member states want different things from the 2030 policy framework, which will set the trajectory for EU climate and energy policy for the next 15 years. Some countries want three targets - to cut emissions, increase use of renewable energy and boost take up of energy efficiency. Others want an emissions target only. And a few say they will only accept targets with sweeteners.

So who wants what from the EU 2030 climate framework, and what does that mean for how ambitious it will be?

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Owen Paterson on scrapping the UK’s commitment to reducing emissions

  • 15 Oct 2014, 20:50
  • Mat Hope & Simon Evans

Former environment secretary Owen Paterson tonight delivered a lecture to climate skeptic thinktank the Global Warming Policy Foundation. In his speech, he called on the government to suspend the UK's legally binding obligation to cut emissions and abandon its pursuit of renewable energy in favour of submarine-style nuclear power.

Paterson's speech was  heavily trailed in the media earlier this week, which we  analysed in detail here. Here's a summary, with some extra context on what Paterson had to say on...

The science

Paterson suggests forecasts of climate change's impacts have been "consistently and widely exaggerated", adding that the atmosphere has failed "to warm at all over the past 18 years".

This is incorrect. The atmosphere has warmed by about 0.05 degrees since the end of the 1990s. This is slower than in previous decades, but when what's happening to the oceans is also considered, scientists are clear that the planet as a whole is warming.

Scientists expect air temperatures to rise quickly again when natural cycles that are currently pushing heat into the deep ocean reverse. This kind of natural fluctuation has happened many times in earth's history - and when you take the ups and downs out, the long term trend is one of warming since industrialisation.

Paterson doesn't dispute that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, but he says there is "considerable uncertainty" over how much warming we'll see.

Scientists haven't pinned down exactly how much temperatures rise per doubling of carbon dioxide - known as the climate sensitivity. But importantly, if we continue emitting greenhouse gases as fast as we are, we'll see serious warming this century wherever climate sensitivity sits within the range scientists have identified.

The lights going out

Cutting emissions and decarbonising the energy sector means "the lights would eventually go out".

While the idea of the lights going out is an attractive shorthand for journalists and commentators, it  isn't seriously expected to become reality.

However, the government has long recognised the need for significant investment to replace the UK's aging energy infrastructure. Many of the UK's power stations are  very old and are due to  reach the end of their natural life over the coming decades. There are  particular concerns about generating capacity over the next few winters.

That's why the government is planning to pay firms to  reduce demand at peak times, and is creating a  capacity market. This will pay power companies money to ensure there is always enough capacity to cover peak demand, so that the lights will always stay on, even if we have to pay to make sure.

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Five weird things about the EU's cost of energy study

  • 15 Oct 2014, 11:11
  • Simon Evans

The cost of energy tends to dominate arguments about how the world should respond to climate change.

Opponents of strong climate action say that coal is cheap, and government support for renewables is expensive. Green energy advocates say that apparently 'cheap' fossil fuels are failing to pay the full costs they impose on society, including health impacts and climate change. There's an argument about which costs should count, and which shouldn't.

Getting the right answer really matters. A case in point are the climate and energy targets for 2030 that are due to be agreed by European leaders at a summit next week. Much of their attention will be taken up by whether climate ambition will lead to higher energy costs.

In the lead up to the summit the European Commission has published a  detailed study that attempts to tease apart all of the different types of energy cost. The idea is to assess fossil fuels, renewables and nuclear power on a level playing field, including government subsidies and costs not currently priced by the market.

The study contains mountains of information that took a monumental effort by consultants Ecofys to pull together. But it still leaves almost as many questions as answers.

Here are five weird things we learnt from looking at their work, that show how fiendishly difficult it is to assess the true costs of energy.

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US military outlines plan to deal with increasing climate change threat

  • 14 Oct 2014, 15:00
  • Mat Hope

Flood trucks | US Navy

"A changing climate will have real impacts on [the US] military and the way it executes its missions", US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel yesterday said. And the US military is planning how to deal with the threat now.

The Department of Defense's 2014 Climate Adaptation Roadmap, published yesterday, suggests climate change has the potential to exacerbate some of the world's most significant challenges, from disease to international conflict. It calls climate change a "threat multiplier" with the potential to increase the impact of numerous security concerns.

This  isn't the first time the US military has expressed its concerns about climate change. But the roadmap is one of the first documents to "really go into great detail about what the US military should be doing in response to climate change now" Francesco Femia, co-director of the Center for Climate and Security thinktank, tells Carbon Brief. The report shows that military has decided the risk from climate change "is great and it's immediate", Femia says.

New activities

The roadmap outlines a number of new ways climate change could cause the military to be called into action. Its findings are driven by two things, Femia says: developments in climate science and "what the military is seeing on the ground".

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Owen Paterson’s objections to the Climate Change Act: some context

  • 13 Oct 2014, 15:00
  • Simon Evans and Mat Hope

Wind & coal | Shutterstock

Former environment minister Owen Paterson has been in the papers over the weekend. In an article on the front page of yesterday's Sunday Telegraph he says we won't be able to keep the UK's lights on unless we scrap the Climate Change Act. This is a law requiring the government to cut the UK's greenhouse gas emissions, which he himself voted for.

Screen Shot 2014-10-13 at 12.45.06.png

Paterson is due to give a lecture to climate sceptic thinktank the Global Warming Policy Foundation on Wednesday, where he will expand on this theme. In advance of his talk we've taken a look at what he has to say.

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How much of China's carbon dioxide emissions is the rest of the world responsible for?

  • 09 Oct 2014, 15:00
  • Mat Hope

China smog | Shutterstock

China is the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, by far. The country produces more than a quarter of the planet's annual greenhouse gas emissions.

World leaders increasingly reference China's spiralling emissions as a reason why it should commit to dealing with climate change.

But is it fair to ask China to lead the way? After all, a hefty share of the pollution rising out of China's smokestacks comes from factories churning out TVs, mobile phones and cheap toys for the rest of the world.

China's emissions

In 2006, China became the  world's largest emitter, overtaking the US. By 2013, 28 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions came from China, according to data from the Global Carbon Project.

This graph shows the dramatic step change in the growth of China's carbon dioxide emissions that's taken place in the last 15 years:

Screen Shot 2014-10-08 at 15.09.41.png
Source: Data from the Global Carbon Project, Global Carbon Atlas. Graph by Carbon Brief.

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Is burning wood for energy worse for the climate than coal?

  • 07 Oct 2014, 16:50
  • Simon Evans

Drax Power

An article in today's Daily Mail says it is "lunacy" to run Drax power station on biomass instead of coal. Converting the plant to burn wood destroys forests and emits more carbon, it says. The paper calls this a "living, humming, forest-destroying symbol of the shameful absurdity of European energy policies".

Drax and the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) do not agree. DECC is giving money to conversions at Drax and other power plants because they are helping the UK meet an EU target to get 15 per cent of its energy from renewable sources by 2020.

DECC says this will cut carbon too, if the right kind of biomass is used. But what does the right kind of biomass look like? Let's try to unpack things a little.

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Daily Briefing | Government cuts solar subsidy angering industry

  • 03 Oct 2014, 09:00
  • Carbon Brief Staff

UK renewable energy subsidy changes anger solar industry 
The solar industry has hit back at the government's new Contracts for Difference scheme, saying it unfairly curtails the burgeoning industry at a critical time. The CfD scheme will provide £300m worth of support to the renewable power industry but will require that more mature technologies, such as onshore wind and solar, compete for subsidies with less established - and more expensive - sectors. Labour has waded into the row over solar subsidies, accusing the government of undermining support for the industry, reports BusinessGreen.  The Guardian 

Climate and energy news

Expensive green energy a 'bad gamble' as ministers slash gas price forecasts
The Department of Energy and Climate Change has released new forecasts slashing its gas price forecasts for this decade by as much as 20 per cent. With nuclear and wind set to remain more costly relative to gas, this undermines the Government's case for backing green energy, says The Times. Cheaper gas could be good news for consumers, shaving close to £100-a-year off a typical dual-fuel bill, reports the Telegraph.  The Telegraph 

Investment in clean energy rising after two years of decline 
Globally, just over $175 billion was poured into solar, wind and other green energy sources in the first nine months of 2014, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. China's solar boom made the single biggest contribution, catapulting total investment by 16 per cent on last year. But there's no room for complacency, says Bloomberg chairman Michael Liebreich. More is needed to support the rapid transformation of the power system needed to see carbon dioxide emissions peak in 2020.  The Financial Times 

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Conservative conference keeps quiet on climate change

  • 01 Oct 2014, 17:00
  • Simon Evans

CC2.0 mrgarethm

Climate change doesn't appear to be part of the Conservative Party's electoral strategy. At its annual conference in Birmingham this week it has seemed a case of the less said on the subject, the better.

The Tories' internal contradictions on climate are no secret. The likes of former environment secretary Owen Paterson have loudly opposed efforts to tackle emissions, while Tory heavyweights like Lord Deben and Michael Howard are firm advocates of action.

These contradictions have left some commentators asking who really speaks for the Conservatives on climate change.

Is it David Cameron who last week called climate change "one of the most serious threats facing our world" and told the conference the UK was leading on climate? Or George Osborne, whose conference speech  avoided the subject?

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IEA: Four charts that show what a solar powered future looks like

  • 29 Sep 2014, 14:30
  • Simon Evans

City solar | Shutterstock

The sun could be meeting a quarter of the world's electricity needs by 2050, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says.

Today it published two solar technology roadmaps: one for solar thermal electricity where heat from the sun is used to heat liquid and drive a turbine; and another for the more familiar solar photovoltaic cells.

The IEA says that by 2050, solar PV could be providing 16 per cent of the world's electricity. Solar thermal could account for another 11 per cent, it thinks.

The march of solar PV

Solar panels have been spreading across rooftops around the world like a rash. Installed solar PV capacity has increased by half again each year for the past decade, as the chart below shows.

Source:  IEA solar PV technology roadmap 2014

Much of that growth has been in Europe, particularly in Germany, Italy and Spain where generous subsidies had driven deployment.

Those subsidies have been cut, leading to reduced installation rates. But other countries have started to pick up the slack.

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