the climate brief Accurate Reporting of Climate Science

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Burning biomass - often from wood - is a key pillar of the government's renewable energy strategy, but there are questions over whether more biomass means higher emissions. A joint government and industry initiative launched yesterday sets out to clarify biomass's role in the UK's drive to meet its energy needs while cutting carbon. 

The initiative is coordinated by  Carbon Connect which brings together MPs, peers and industry. The group's report will aim to outline "the role of renewables and how they tie into security of supply", according to former energy minister and Carbon Connect co-chair Charles Hendry. Here's a few key issues it will need to address.

Biomass emissions controversy

The government must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by  80 per cent by 2050 by law.  

It's hard to know whether biomass will help the UK cut carbon, however. Biomass generation  can be carbon negative, in theory. But it depends on what kind of biomass is used and where it comes from. 

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Government  figures released today show four million households in fuel poverty, slightly fewer than a year before. Three things in particular affect the numbers: energy prices, household incomes and where people live.

The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) releases annual figures on fuel poverty. A household is considered in fuel poverty if it spends more than 10 per cent of its income on fuel costs. But this measure has been criticised for failing to recognise households' different energy needs so the government now also measures fuel poverty on the basis of how much they have to spend for an 'adequate' standard of living. 

Energy prices affect fuel poverty

Fuel prices have been steadily increasing over the last ten years and are "typically been the most influential factor in movements in fuel poverty", according to the report.

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From Tuvalu to Alaska, some communities are already feeling the effects of rising sea levels - but knowing just how much melting ice is contributing to sea level rise, and what we can expect in the future is more difficult. A major EU project has just released new projections - and it says sea levels could rise nearly 70 cm by 2100.

Today's media have reported the new projections but seem confused over whether they're better or worse than expected. The Times says the risk from rising seas is "worse than feared", whereas the  New Scientist claims "it's not as bad as we thought".

As it turns out it could be seen as a bit of both - here's why.

Ice2sea

Four years ago, the Ice2sea project launched with the aim of improving scientists' projections of how much melting sea ice will contribute to global sea level rise.

Two years previously, the  IPCC 4th assessment report gave a best estimate of sea level rise of around 40 cm by 2100, but said the biggest uncertainty was the contribution to sea level rise from ice sheets and glaciers.

As ice sheets and glaciers melt, water that was previously held on land is added to the ocean, causing sea levels to rise. Head of the Ice2sea project, Professor David Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey, explained at the launch of the project's final report last night:

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The Arctic wasn't always as cold and icy as it is now. Three million years ago, carbon dioxide levels were similar to today - but summer temperatures were eight degrees Celsius higher and Greenland was almost ice-free. A new study has scientists speculating whether earth's distant past can provide a window into future climate change.

Ancient lake

Scientists can glean clues about the history of Earth's climate by examining plants and animals preserved in ancient sediments. Fossilised pollen can reveal the vegetation that existed at different times, which in turn paints a picture of temperature and rainfall.

Published today in the journal Science, a new study uses the longest sediment core ever collected from the Arctic to reconstruct polar temperature between 2.2 and 3.3 million years ago.

The international team of scientists analysed fossilised pollen from layers of sediment below an 18 kilometre-wide lake in the northeast Russian Arctic, which formed when a meteorite hit earth nearly 3.6 million years ago.

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Horst Machguth

A new study estimates how much Greenland's glaciers could raise sea level under a warming climate - and it could be as much as 8.5 cm by 2100. This is less than some previous models suggest, but not insignificant for calculating total sea level rise.

Satellite data suggests that over the last 20 years, the Greenland ice sheet has lost  140 billion tonnes of ice each year. As ice sheets melt, water that was previously held on land is added to the ocean, causing sea levels to rise.

As well as warmer air directly melting the  surface of the ice sheet, glaciers are an important part of the picture. Glaciers move ice from the ice sheet to the sea, and  react quickly to changes in atmospheric conditions.

This sensitivity makes glaciers very visible indicators of climate change. But unravelling the different ways they're affected by rising temperature has proven challenging, which means the contribution of Greenland's glaciers to sea level rise is not well understood.

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The UK is looking to the continent for inspiration as it continues to try and push its contentious  electricity market reforms through parliament. The Department of Energy and Climate Change has commissioned consultants Poyry to look at the prospects for European coal power - and the  report suggests coal's  days are numbered. But what was the government hoping to learn?

Energy transformation without coal

It could be that DECC wanted to see what role coal might play in a country transitioning to a low carbon energy system - and for that there's no better place to look than Germany.

In 2010 the German government announced  plans for an overhaul of the country's energy system known as the energiewende, phasing out nuclear power by 2022 and ramping up renewable generation to make Germany "one of the most energy-efficient and greenest economies in the world". 

In 2012,  over a fifth of Germany's electricity was generated from renewable sources, up three per cent on a year before. But  coal is Germany's key energy source. It accounted for 45 per cent of electricity generation in 2012, two per cent higher than in 2011. 

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Sébastien Bertrand

It's quite possible for the EU's future energy mix to be based on renewables, but it will require policy coordination.

That's the message from a House of Lords sub-committee in a  report released this morning. The cross-party group called for the EU to coordinate action to increase renewable energy support and phase out the use of fossil fuels across the continent.

Coordinating renewables

The committee says the EU should help countries share best practice on supporting renewables growth - though it stops short of recommending an EU-wide subsidy scheme. 

It says Germany's energiewende, or 'energy transition', shows it is possible to bring large amounts of intermittent renewable electricity generation online without overloading the grid. Aided by  government subsidies, German  solar  generation increased by over 50 per cent last year, and Germany has the most installed  wind capacity in Europe. 

But the committee says the EU would need to coordinate action if Germany's renewables revolution is to be replicated across Europe. 

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From concern about energy bills to support for renewables, via the slightly more surreal avenue of suggesting the data is somehow untrustworthy, we examine five publications' takes on the government's latest energy and climate poll.

The Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has released the latest instalment of its quarterly  Public Attitudes Survey yesterday. Based on interviews with 2,000 people, the poll aims to track how the public views DECC's policy priorities - including on energy efficiency, energy infrastructure and reducing emissions.

Media reports

Every opinion poll tells a story - though the five publications we review here have come up with rather different takes on what the narrative from DECC's polling might be.

1. Energy bill concern: 59 per cent

Carbon Brief top-lines on public concern over energy bills. The survey found that more people than ever before - 59 per cent - were worried about paying their energy bills. Interestingly, while some areas of the media have devoted a significant amount of column inches to claims about the  effect of renewable subsidies on  bills, our own  polling indicates people tend to lay the blame for rising bills on energy company profits rather than so-called green taxes.

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Public concern over rising energy bills is on the up, according to new government data. The news follows reports of energy companies  doubling their profits as Britain experienced a cold snap this spring.

The data also show support for some low carbon energy sources is at an all time high as the public becomes increasingly aware of the new kid on the block, shale gas.

Research company TNS UK interviewed around 2,000 people for the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC)'s Public Attitudes survey. The idea was to gauge how the public sees what DECC calls its main "business priorities" - goals such as energy efficiency, improving the UK's energy infrastructure and increasing the amount of energy we generate from low carbon sources. DECC runs the survey every three months to track changes in opinion.

Paying for energy

More people than ever before said they were worried about paying their energy bills - 59 per cent. Almost a quarter said they were "very worried". That's a nine per cent rise since the question was last asked in February, with a result DECC says is probably down to Britain experiencing a particularly cold start to spring.

Concern does not appear to have translated into action, however, with fewer people switching energy suppliers. 52 per cent of people switched in the last year, compared to 55 per cent when the question was last asked in July 2012. Energy suppliers may be comforted by the news that 61 per cent said they had no plans to switch in the next year.

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We know that plants absorb carbon dioxide, but are they moderating earth's temperature another way? A new study suggests the cooling effect of tiny particles emitted from plants can offset one per cent of global warming. We asked the authors what this means for slowing the pace of temperature rise.

What are aerosols?

Aerosols are tiny particles that can have a  cooling effect on the atmosphere. The particles scatter sunlight directly and stimulate clouds to form, preventing sunlight reaching earth's surface.

Scientists are confident that aerosols offset a substantial portion of human-caused warming, but there is still a lot of  uncertainty about how much.

Most aerosols come from  human activity, such as vehicle exhausts and wood burning. A much smaller fraction are naturally occurring, mainly through volcanic eruptions.

A new study in  Nature Geoscience explains how plants could be another - albeit much smaller - source of natural aerosols through the gases they release.

As co-author Ari Asmi from the University of Helsinki tells us, these so called biological aerosols bolster the effect of aerosols from other sources. 

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