the climate brief Accurate Reporting of Climate Science

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A group of scientists has just published a new estimate of how sensitive earth is to rising greenhouse gases. Their value for 'climate sensitivity' is at the low end of what scientists have previously suggested - but there's still a lot of uncertainty.

Importantly, the study shows slower surface temperature rise over the past decade doesn't change scientists' projections of how much warming we can expect in the long term.

What scientists call 'equilibrium climate sensitivity' is the warming we can expect from a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, compared with pre-industrial levels. It's a number scientists are still trying to pin down - and it's important, because the higher climate sensitivity is, the more warming there will be.

In its last report, published in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated a likely range of climate sensitivity of between  two and 4.5 degrees Celsius, with a best estimate of three degrees. But it didn't rule out lower or higher values and since then, scientists have continued to try to narrow the range of uncertainty surrounding the number.

Energy inventory

The short  new study, published as a letter in Nature Geoscience, is based on measurements of how much heat the land, ocean, ice and atmosphere have absorbed between 1970 and 2009.

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'Saloon bar politics' by Ukip could harm Britain's climate change credibility and drag Tories to right on environment, warns minister
Ed Davey suggests vested interests and parts of the media are to blame for a rise in climate change scepticism, which could be further fuelled by the growing popularity of UKIP.
The Independent 

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Households to get doubled subsidies of £2,300 off green boilers to boost flagging renewable scheme
The government is doubling the value of grants available for homeowners looking to install certain green energy measures until March 2013.
The Telegraph

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Copyright Sebastian Ballard

In an interview with the  Sunday Telegraph, Ian McCaig, chief executive of small gas and electricity supplier First Utility, argues that energy bills could overtake mortgage costs "over the next five to 10 years". The Sunday Telegraph headlines the article "Energy bills 'could overtake mortgages in five years'." It's a great headline, but is it right?

The article says:

"Analysis by First Utility shows that UK dual-fuel bills have risen by an average of 8.5pc a year over the last five years to reach current levels of £1,420.

"If they keep rising at the same rate, then by 2025 they would reach £3,761 - higher than current average annual mortgage repayments in places such as Stoke-on-Trent and higher than average repayments in Liverpool by 2029."

There are two things to note here. 

First, the projection cited in the Sunday Telegraph refers to bills in 12 years' time, not five.

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Climate slowdown means extreme rates of warming 'not as likely'
The BBC covers a new Nature Geoscience paper: "The authors calculate that over the coming decades global average temperatures will warm about 20% more slowly than expected. But when it comes to the longer term picture, the authors say their work is consistent with previous estimates."
BBC News

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On climate sensitivity
The New Scientist covers the new climate sensitivity estimate. Given rapid emissions cuts, "their remains a good chance we could hit the 2 degree target" says Professor Myles Allen of Oxford. ABCcover the sensitivity paper, as does skeptic blog Watts up with That.
New Scientist and others

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Party like it's 2011

It feels a bit like it's 2011 again. Exchanging different predictions for how much moving to a greener energy system might be going to cost British consumers was all the rage about eighteen months ago. Today, reports in the right wing press claim Britain's green energy "folly" will cost consumers £600 a year by 2020. 

The  Mail and  Telegraph picked up on a press statement from thinktank  Civitas arguing that green energy subsidies will cost every household £600 per annum - or £16 billion in total - by 2020. The figure is based on  calculation by the chief executive of the Renewable Energy Foundation (REF), Dr John Constable. 

How has the figure been created, and how does it compare to DECC's? 

REF has calculated the figure of £16 billion by adding up the following cost estimates for 2020:

• cost of subsidising renewables through the the government's main
• mechanism the  Renewables Obligation (RO) - £8 billion or £307 per household;
• cost of upgrading and maintaining the power network, and managing the variable supply of power from wind - £5 billion, or £192 per household;
• cost of the Carbon Price Floor - £1 billion, or £38 per household. 

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Credit: PatMcD

Burning biomass - often from wood - is a key pillar of the government's renewable energy strategy, but there are questions over whether more biomass means higher emissions. A joint government and industry initiative launched yesterday sets out to clarify biomass's role in the UK's drive to meet its energy needs while cutting carbon. 

The initiative is coordinated by  Carbon Connect which brings together MPs, peers and industry. The group's report will aim to outline "the role of renewables and how they tie into security of supply", according to former energy minister and Carbon Connect co-chair Charles Hendry. Here's a few key issues it will need to address.

Biomass emissions controversy

The government must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by  80 per cent by 2050 by law.  

It's hard to know whether biomass will help the UK cut carbon, however. Biomass generation  can be carbon negative, in theory. But it depends on what kind of biomass is used and where it comes from. 

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The BBC's Today programme has seven million listeners, so how it covers climate science is quite important. This morning's programme saw a report on climate change and recent temperature rise, followed by an interview with the well-known climate scientist Dr James Hansen.

Broadly speaking, the programme did a good job of navigating what has become an entangled web of scientific issues, although it perhaps inevitably lacked clarity on a few points.

BBC environment correspondent Roger Harrabin posed the question "what kind of risk are we taking with the climate?" With greenhouse gases in the atmosphere rising, earth's surface temperature - that's the air over the land and ocean - has risen more slowly over the past decade and a half than in previous decades.

The Today programme report explored why this might be, while Dr Hansen was on hand to explain why despite the recent slow pace of surface warming, the science of climate change isn't really in doubt.

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Families to pay £600 a year towards green energy by 2020, says think-tank study
A new report from thinktank Civitas says the cost of hitting European Union targets on green energy is likely to be more than £16 billion by 2020, based on Renewable Energy Foundation calculations.
Telegraph 

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Defra aims to save firms £1bn by cutting "green tape"
The environment secretary Owen Paterson has launched a Smarter Regulation Review to reform government compliance regulations, hoping to make them easier for industry to negotiate.
BusinessGreen

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Author:Rama

The European Commission is investigating oil companies for possible Libor-like offences related to price reporting in the transport petrol market. Which is fine if you know what any of this stuff means. For those who don't, here's a guide to what's going on, and what could happen next.

Who's involved

The  FT  broke the story on Monday that the European Commission has raided the offices of oil companies BP, Shell and Statoil for misreporting petrol prices to Platts, an information provider which reports the 'benchmark price' for commodities like petrol - and whose offices were also raided.

Platts publishes information on commodity market such as food, energy and metals. It provides benchmark prices on these commodities, which underpin trading activity and can ultimately affect prices consumers pay on goods like petrol at the pump.

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Credit: Timlewism

Government  figures released today show four million households in fuel poverty, slightly fewer than a year before. Three things in particular affect the numbers: energy prices, household incomes and where people live.

The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) releases annual figures on fuel poverty. A household is considered in fuel poverty if it spends more than 10 per cent of its income on fuel costs. But this measure has been criticised for failing to recognise households' different energy needs so the government now also measures fuel poverty on the basis of how much they have to spend for an 'adequate' standard of living. 

Energy prices affect fuel poverty

Fuel prices have been steadily increasing over the last ten years and are "typically been the most influential factor in movements in fuel poverty", according to the report.

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