Analysis

Analysis: Newspapers less interested in climate impacts of shale oil than gas

  • 02 Jun 2014, 15:20
  • Mat Hope

Credit: David Hawgood

There could be a wealth of shale oil resources in the south of England, according to a report released last month. But despite the increased greenhouse gas emissions associated with ramping up oil production, the report barely featured in print newspapers' climate change coverage.

That's in stark contrast to a similar report on shale gas released almost 12 months ago.  

Trends

In late May, the British Geological Survey (BGS) released a report suggesting there could be as much as  4.4 billion barrels of oil locked in the UK's shale rock.

Shale gas has been a big story, and you might expect news of the report to filter into climate change coverage, particularly since the climate implications of a BGS report on shale gas last June had a significant impact.

But that hasn't been the case. This just wasn't a climate change story - and the lack of shale gas made it a much smaller media moment that earlier in the year. Our analysis of all articles printed in the UK's major papers shows there were 349 mentioning climate change in April, significantly down on last year.

UK Newspaper Coverage Total May 14

That's not to say climate change wasn't mentioned at all in relation to the report.

The  Guardian notes that a key objection to fracking - the method for extracting fuel from shale rock - is that it can "accelerate climate change" as potent greenhouse gases leak from the wells. Likewise, the  Daily Mail carries a quote from a Greenpeace activist objecting to the practice as it adds to "carbon pollution" - an alternative term for increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

None of the other major daily newspapers reported the climate implications of the report's findings, however. Instead, they focused on a set of  accompanying  policies to compensate homeowners near fracking sites.

Oil is principally used for heating or as a transport, not for power generation. As such, there isn't any debate about it displacing more carbon intensive fossil fuels in the power sector, as there is with shale gas. The community payoffs announced alongside BGS's estimate may simply have been a more obvious angle.

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Does evidence suggest the words "global warming" make people care more about "climate change"?

  • 28 May 2014, 12:15
  • Mat Hope

Does giving a problem a different name increase public support for solving it? It depends which poll you look at. Yesterday, the  Guardian reported a new survey showing people care more about climate change when it's called "global warming". But two weeks ago,  Mother Jones said polling shows "it doesn't matter" which label is used.

The Guardian story is based on a  Yale Project on Climate Change Communication survey. Mother Jones looked at Gallup  polling data.

So why the difference? And does it actually matter which terms are used?

It doesn't matter

With polling, you get out what you put in - the questions asked in polls affect the answers people give. In this case, differences in the polling questions, and the focus of the polls themselves, have meant the two polls come to different, but complementary conclusions.

Gallup asked two different questions. The first asked how people how worried they were about a list of eight issues, of which "climate change" and "global warming" were two. The polling found no significantly significant difference between the two terms in how worried people said they were.

To probe further, in a separate poll Gallup asked different people how serious they thought both "climate change" and "global warming" were. Again, the differences were slight.

These findings led Mother Jones - via Gallup's own  analyst - to conclude that "The public responds to [the terms] global warming and climate change in a similar fashion..."

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Enabling the messenger: How can the IPCC get its message across to the public?

  • 23 May 2014, 13:30
  • Ros Donald

cazstar

The pages of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s new reports tells a range of compelling stories about the huge changes humans and our environment face as the planet warms. 

Trouble is, these narratives are couched in fairly inaccessible language.

We look at two new pieces of research aimed at analysing the way the IPCC communicates and improving the panel's rapport with the public.

Bringing the IPCC to life

For its new  report, 'Science & stories: Bringing the IPCC to life', communications group Climate Outreach & Information Network (COIN) interviewed 16 communications experts from UK media organisations and NGOs.

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What Google searches can (and can’t) reveal about climate skepticism

  • 22 May 2014, 15:20
  • Mat Hope

epa.gov

Do controversies about the trustworthiness of climate science lead to greater levels of climate skepticism? A new study turns to people's internet searches to try and find out.

In 2009, a hacker attained emails between scientists at the University of East Anglia. Subsequent reports claimed the email's contents undermined the trustworthiness of climate science, and the episode became high profile enough to warrant its own moniker: climategate. A few months later, the discovery a data error regarding Himalayan glacier melt in a major UN report catalysed similar headlines.

A study published Environmental Research Letters this week shows such controversies can cause a brief spike in public interest, but the attention quickly fizzles out. So does that mean climategate's impact on skepticism was only fleeting, as  some  reports  suggest? A closer look at the data suggests it's not so clear cut.

Search trends

The researchers looked at Google searches around the time of the controversies.They found searches for "global warming" (the black line on the graph below) and "global warming hoax" (the blue line) both increased when the stories broke.

The impact of climategate was notably stronger than the effect of the Himalayan glaciers story, the researchers say - though the latter also caused a small spike.

Climate skeptic google searches

It's not just negative stories that got people Googling. The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change releases a series of reports on the state of climate science every six or seven years. Searches for "global warming" spiked around the reports' releases, the researchers found. The release of Al Gore's film on the scientific basis of climate change, An Inconvenient Truth, also had an impact.

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It’s a bit like a tree: How comparing geoengineering to the natural world bolsters support

  • 22 May 2014, 10:49
  • Ros Donald

cc. Katie Walker

Using pipes to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, and storing it underground: doesn't sound very natural. But what if you were encouraged to think of the process as similar to the role trees perform in nature? A new study finds likening geoengineering to bits of the natural world is more likely to make people feel supportive of technologies that change the climate.

Most people are very attached to nature, and  strongly opposed to processes that appear to tamper with it - like so-called geoengineering, which aims to artificially cool the climate. Working from this starting point, a new  study from Cardiff University tests whether likening geoengineering to natural processes might reverse some of that negative feeling.

Because geoengineering is a relatively new idea, researchers talking about it have to find ways to explain what it is. Using analogies is one easy way, as Dr Adam Corner, a co-author of the research, says:

"Scientists and researchers talking about geoengineering are looking for analogies to describe their research. They may describe sucking carbon dioxide out of the air as similar to the workings of an artificial tree, or pumping particles into the air to reflect heat away in terms of how volcanoes work."

These analogies can be suggested by the way some geoengineering processes are supposed to work, he says:

"Lots of this language makes sense in some ways - for example, the idea of pumping sulphate particles into the air comes from the study of volcanoes, which naturally cool the climate. Our question was that given people care so much about nature - and they see natural things as less of a threat than artificial things - how do these analogies affect our perception of geoengineering?"

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BBC most likely to portray IPCC science as ‘contested’: how old and new media covered the IPCC

  • 19 May 2014, 12:00
  • Ros Donald

BBC television coverage of the UN's latest climate science reports was the most likely to portray climate science as not 'settled', according to emerging research. Meanwhile, UK tweeters are the most likely in the world to have debates about climate change 

We're reporting new communication research findings previewed at last week's Transformational Climate Science Conference, hosted by Exeter University. The event was sunny, packed, and buzzing with different ideas about how climate communication is produced and received - including work reflecting on the Intergovernmenta Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s latest report. 

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Top scientific journal rejects Times front-page article claims

  • 16 May 2014, 15:15
  • Roz Pidcock

A Times front page today claims a leading scientific journal has "deliberately suppressed" dissenting views on the severity of global warming.

But the scientific journal in question has dismissed the claims and taken the unusual step of publishing reviewer comments on the paper, which show reviewers had raised concerns about the quality of the research.

The Times front page claims the rejection of work by Lennart Bengtsson, a scientist at Reading University, by the journal Environmental Research Letters (ERL) was an attempt to "reject" evidence that "heaped doubt on the rate of global warming."

But ERL promptly issued a  statement strongly dismissing the claims, saying:

"The draft journal paper by Lennart Bengtsson that Environmental Research Letters declined to publish ... contained errors, in our view did not provide a significant advancement in the field, and therefore could not be published in the journal."

A measure of sensitivity

The research is trying to calculate something called 'climate sensitivity' - a measure of how much warming we're likely to see if the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubles.

The IPCC  estimates climate sensitivity is likely to be in the range of 1.5 to 4.4 degrees for a doubling of carbon dioxide, but scientists can't narrow the uncertainty any further at the moment.

The Times suggests the journal's reviewers rejected Bengtsson's paper on the grounds that it disagreed with the IPCC's estimate.

The newspaper repeats a reviewer's comments that the research was "unhelpful":

"The unnamed scientist concluded: "Actually [Bengtsson's paper] is harmful as it opens the door for oversimplified claims of 'errors' and worse from the climate sceptics media side."

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Hotter and wetter extremes: How scientists know our weather’s getting more erratic as climate change bites

  • 12 May 2014, 11:00
  • Roz Pidcock

From rising flood risk in the UK to record-breaking heatwaves across Australia, elevated greenhouse gases mean we're seeing warmer and wetter extremes in our weather than a century ago, says Dr Markus Donat.

Markus Donat researches extreme weather at the Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science and the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales, Australia.

1. What type of weather events do you look at, and how do you define "extreme"?

My work focuses on temperature and precipitation extremes. In both cases, "extreme" means particularly high and particularly low values, compared to the expected range in a given region.

That means we look at peak temperatures and heat waves, as well as cold spells. For precipitation, "extreme" can mean unusually heavy rainfall over a single day or over several consecutive days. Unusually long periods without any rain are also a type of extreme event.

2. How do scientists measure extreme heat and rainfall events? How good is the data?

We've been working on creating a global database of observations, which means overcoming several big challenges. One issue is data gaps. We have very good observational coverage in the northern hemisphere and in Australia, for example, but large gaps in Africa and South America. Sometimes data exists in written archives, but has never been digitised.

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Analysis: Newspaper coverage of climate change drops despite release of major UN reports

  • 06 May 2014, 14:00
  • Mat Hope

Credit: Roland Unger

Despite the launch of  two major UN reports on climate science, UK newspaper coverage of climate change dropped last month.

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has released threemajor reports on the causes and impacts of climate change over the past seven months. The publication of the first report last September led to a spike in newspaper coverage. But the latter two reports - launched on the 31st March and 13th April - didn't capture the same level of attention, our analysis suggests.

climate tracker, total, April 2014

Our analysis shows 452 articles were published in April, just two more than an 12-month average of 448 articles per month. That's significantly less than February's 12-month high, where floods catalysed a widespread debate on the impacts of climate change.

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Q & A: What’s El Niño - and why does it matter that scientists say one is on the way?

  • 24 Apr 2014, 12:50
  • Roz Pidcock

Forecasters worldwide are issuing alerts. Later this year, we're likely to be in the midst of an El Niño - a phenomenon driving severe weather worldwide. So when can we expect it to kick in, and what will the consequences be for global temperature? Find this and more in our quick Q & A.

What is an El Niño?

Every five years or so, a change in the winds causes a shift to warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the  equatorial Pacific Ocean - known as El Niño, or cooler than normal - known as La Niña, moving briefly back to normal in between.

Both phases together are known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and are responsible for most of the fluctuations in global weather we see from one year to the next.

ENSO

Sea surface temperature during El Niño (left) and La Niña (right). Red and blue show warmer and cooler temperatures than the long term average. [Credit: Steve Albers, NOAA]

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