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Party like it's 2011

It feels a bit like it's 2011 again. Exchanging different predictions for how much moving to a greener energy system might be going to cost British consumers was all the rage about eighteen months ago. Today, reports in the right wing press claim Britain's green energy "folly" will cost consumers £600 a year by 2020. 

The  Mail and  Telegraph picked up on a press statement from thinktank  Civitas arguing that green energy subsidies will cost every household £600 per annum - or £16 billion in total - by 2020. The figure is based on  calculation by the chief executive of the Renewable Energy Foundation (REF), Dr John Constable. 

How has the figure been created, and how does it compare to DECC's? 

REF has calculated the figure of £16 billion by adding up the following cost estimates for 2020:

• cost of subsidising renewables through the the government's main
• mechanism the  Renewables Obligation (RO) - £8 billion or £307 per household;
• cost of upgrading and maintaining the power network, and managing the variable supply of power from wind - £5 billion, or £192 per household;
• cost of the Carbon Price Floor - £1 billion, or £38 per household. 

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Credit: PatMcD

Burning biomass - often from wood - is a key pillar of the government's renewable energy strategy, but there are questions over whether more biomass means higher emissions. A joint government and industry initiative launched yesterday sets out to clarify biomass's role in the UK's drive to meet its energy needs while cutting carbon. 

The initiative is coordinated by  Carbon Connect which brings together MPs, peers and industry. The group's report will aim to outline "the role of renewables and how they tie into security of supply", according to former energy minister and Carbon Connect co-chair Charles Hendry. Here's a few key issues it will need to address.

Biomass emissions controversy

The government must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by  80 per cent by 2050 by law.  

It's hard to know whether biomass will help the UK cut carbon, however. Biomass generation  can be carbon negative, in theory. But it depends on what kind of biomass is used and where it comes from. 

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The BBC's Today programme has seven million listeners, so how it covers climate science is quite important. This morning's programme saw a report on climate change and recent temperature rise, followed by an interview with the well-known climate scientist Dr James Hansen.

Broadly speaking, the programme did a good job of navigating what has become an entangled web of scientific issues, although it perhaps inevitably lacked clarity on a few points.

BBC environment correspondent Roger Harrabin posed the question "what kind of risk are we taking with the climate?" With greenhouse gases in the atmosphere rising, earth's surface temperature - that's the air over the land and ocean - has risen more slowly over the past decade and a half than in previous decades.

The Today programme report explored why this might be, while Dr Hansen was on hand to explain why despite the recent slow pace of surface warming, the science of climate change isn't really in doubt.

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Families to pay £600 a year towards green energy by 2020, says think-tank study
A new report from thinktank Civitas says the cost of hitting European Union targets on green energy is likely to be more than £16 billion by 2020, based on Renewable Energy Foundation calculations.
Telegraph 

News:

Defra aims to save firms £1bn by cutting "green tape"
The environment secretary Owen Paterson has launched a Smarter Regulation Review to reform government compliance regulations, hoping to make them easier for industry to negotiate.
BusinessGreen

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Author:Rama

The European Commission is investigating oil companies for possible Libor-like offences related to price reporting in the transport petrol market. Which is fine if you know what any of this stuff means. For those who don't, here's a guide to what's going on, and what could happen next.

Who's involved

The  FT  broke the story on Monday that the European Commission has raided the offices of oil companies BP, Shell and Statoil for misreporting petrol prices to Platts, an information provider which reports the 'benchmark price' for commodities like petrol - and whose offices were also raided.

Platts publishes information on commodity market such as food, energy and metals. It provides benchmark prices on these commodities, which underpin trading activity and can ultimately affect prices consumers pay on goods like petrol at the pump.

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Credit: Timlewism

Government  figures released today show four million households in fuel poverty, slightly fewer than a year before. Three things in particular affect the numbers: energy prices, household incomes and where people live.

The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) releases annual figures on fuel poverty. A household is considered in fuel poverty if it spends more than 10 per cent of its income on fuel costs. But this measure has been criticised for failing to recognise households' different energy needs so the government now also measures fuel poverty on the basis of how much they have to spend for an 'adequate' standard of living. 

Energy prices affect fuel poverty

Fuel prices have been steadily increasing over the last ten years and are "typically been the most influential factor in movements in fuel poverty", according to the report.

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Credit: Robert Scoble

Survey finds 97% of climate science papers agree warming is man-made
A  new study shows fewer than one per cent of climate change papers refute that humans are causing global warming. The Australian says the study goes against the "widely held view" that scientists are divided on the topic. Dana Nuccitelli runs over the details and key graphs from the Skeptical Science-led report in the Guardian.

News:

Middle-aged are most financially stretched
The Telegraph claims increased energy efficiency regulations will push up electricity and gas bills in the next few years, placing an increased burden on people in their 40s and 50s.
Telegraph

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Research suggests  support for climate change action increases if the public is aware of a scientific consensus on the evidence for human causes. But how many scientists really agree? A new  study, out today, shows very few studies reject that climate change is human caused, and hopes to promote this message by encouraging the public to get involved. 

A team of volunteers from climate science blog, Skeptical Science, rated the abstracts of nearly 12,000 peer-reviewed papers based on their level of agreement that climate change is human caused. The new study aims to identify the level of consensus by analysing 20 years of climate change literature.  

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As the energy minister Michael Fallon encourages companies to explore for shale gas, concerns remain that the extraction process is safe. We asked at what so-called fracking will do to the local environment, and what regulation is needed.

Several official reports - from Parliament's  Energy and Climate Change (ECC) Committee, the  International Energy Agency (IEA) and the  Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) appear to agree that the local impacts of shale gas extraction are manageable.

And the government's now on the same page. In front of a Parliamentary Committee today, new energy minister Michael Fallon said the government is "creating the right framework to accelerate shale gas development in a responsible way", adding that it is now up to oil and gas companies to come forward with plans to explore the country's shale gas potential.

Despite the reassurances, many communities are worried. Here's a quick and dirty run down of the main issues, with a few of the caveats.

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From Tuvalu to Alaska, some communities are already feeling the effects of rising sea levels - but knowing just how much melting ice is contributing to sea level rise, and what we can expect in the future is more difficult. A major EU project has just released new projections - and it says sea levels could rise nearly 70 cm by 2100.

Today's media have reported the new projections but seem confused over whether they're better or worse than expected. The Times says the risk from rising seas is "worse than feared", whereas the  New Scientist claims "it's not as bad as we thought".

As it turns out it could be seen as a bit of both - here's why.

Ice2sea

Four years ago, the Ice2sea project launched with the aim of improving scientists' projections of how much melting sea ice will contribute to global sea level rise.

Two years previously, the  IPCC 4th assessment report gave a best estimate of sea level rise of around 40 cm by 2100, but said the biggest uncertainty was the contribution to sea level rise from ice sheets and glaciers.

As ice sheets and glaciers melt, water that was previously held on land is added to the ocean, causing sea levels to rise. Head of the Ice2sea project, Professor David Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey, explained at the launch of the project's final report last night:

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