the climate brief Accurate Reporting of Climate Science

In an interview with the  Sunday Telegraph, Ian McCaig, chief executive of small gas and electricity supplier First Utility, argues that energy bills could overtake mortgage costs "over the next five to 10 years". The Sunday Telegraph headlines the article "Energy bills 'could overtake mortgages in five years'." It's a great headline, but is it right?

The article says:

"Analysis by First Utility shows that UK dual-fuel bills have risen by an average of 8.5pc a year over the last five years to reach current levels of £1,420.

"If they keep rising at the same rate, then by 2025 they would reach £3,761 - higher than current average annual mortgage repayments in places such as Stoke-on-Trent and higher than average repayments in Liverpool by 2029."

There are two things to note here. 

First, the projection cited in the Sunday Telegraph refers to bills in 12 years' time, not five.

It feels a bit like it's 2011 again. Exchanging different predictions for how much moving to a greener energy system might be going to cost British consumers was all the rage about eighteen months ago. Today, reports in the right wing press claim Britain's green energy "folly" will cost consumers £600 a year by 2020. 

The  Mail and  Telegraph picked up on a press statement from thinktank  Civitas arguing that green energy subsidies will cost every household £600 per annum - or £16 billion in total - by 2020. The figure is based on  calculation by the chief executive of the Renewable Energy Foundation (REF), Dr John Constable. 

How has the figure been created, and how does it compare to DECC's? 

REF has calculated the figure of £16 billion by adding up the following cost estimates for 2020:

• cost of subsidising renewables through the the government's main
• mechanism the  Renewables Obligation (RO) - £8 billion or £307 per household;
• cost of upgrading and maintaining the power network, and managing the variable supply of power from wind - £5 billion, or £192 per household;
• cost of the Carbon Price Floor - £1 billion, or £38 per household. 

The BBC's Today programme has seven million listeners, so how it covers climate science is quite important. This morning's programme saw a report on climate change and recent temperature rise, followed by an interview with the well-known climate scientist Dr James Hansen.

Broadly speaking, the programme did a good job of navigating what has become an entangled web of scientific issues, although it perhaps inevitably lacked clarity on a few points.

BBC environment correspondent Roger Harrabin posed the question "what kind of risk are we taking with the climate?" With greenhouse gases in the atmosphere rising, earth's surface temperature - that's the air over the land and ocean - has risen more slowly over the past decade and a half than in previous decades.

The Today programme report explored why this might be, while Dr Hansen was on hand to explain why despite the recent slow pace of surface warming, the science of climate change isn't really in doubt.