2017 'very likely' in top three warmest years on record

07.11.17

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2017 ‘very likely’ in top three warmest years on record

The year 2017 is “very likely” to be in the top three warmest years on record, according to provisional figures from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Furthermore, the WMO says it will likely be the hottest year in the absence of an El Niño. While the new study only covers January to September of this year, the WMO says the average global temperature was 1.1C above the pre-industrial figure. The BBC says this is “getting dangerously close” to the 1.5C threshold that many island states feel temperatures must be kept under to ensure their survival. The news is reported widely elsewhere, with the Guardiansays the news confirms “yet again a warming trend that scientists say bears the fingerprints of human actions”. Deutsche Welle carries the views of the German climate researcher Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research: “We can only stick to [1.5C] at this point if there are drastic cuts in global emissions – and we have to be lucky.” Reuters notes that the WMO says that 2017 “will be the most costly hurricane season on record after Harvey, Irma and Maria”. The Express and MailOnline are among the others carrying the story. The Conversation has an article by Australia-based climate scientists David Karoly and Andrew King: “We can already say with confidence that 2017 will end up being the warmest non-El Niño year on record, and that it will be warmer than any year before 2015…It’s certainly clear that humans are warming the climate and increasing the chances of some of the extreme weather we’ve seem in 2017.”

‘Don’t wake the bear’: fragile climate talks begin in Bonn

Climate Home News

A number of publications report on the first full day at COP23 in Bonn. Climate Home News interviews Nazhat Shameem Khan, the Fijian diplomat who will lead much of these talks, who says the conference needs to rebut any notion that the vision of the Paris agreement had dimmed in light of Donald Trump. “But talk to the negotiators who built the deal and it becomes evident that the tumult in the US has created genuine apprehension among those who know this process best, says Mathiesen. However, he adds that “there is every sign that things will go smoothly…the US state department team [in Bonn] are old hands, set to maintain some continuity from the Obama era.” The Guardian says the main hope for the next two weeks is “create an ‘operating manual’ for implementing the Paris agreement on climate change”. Patricia Espinosa, who leads oversees the UN negotiations, stopped short, says the Guardian, of saying that COP23 would result in a full timetable for when countries would be required to make new commitments. “That’s a difficult question to answer at this point. But I remain optimistic.” BBC News says “Climate talks open amid anger over Trump’s coal support”. ThinkProgress focuses on the Trump question: “The highest-ranking United States representative in Bonn will be longtime career diplomat Thomas Shannon, whose presence — rather than a political appointee or administration official — suggests that the United States is hoping to keep a relatively low-profile at the talks this year.” Politico has published a special section about COP23, with its lead piece headlined: “Europe’s energy realities bite into climate spin.” The Independent also lists “what to expect at the latest climate talks”, with the number one item being “US delegation’s role as industry advocate”. Meanwhile, Climate Home News has a story about next year’s hosts, Poland: “A Polish bid to siphon off up to €29bn of EU carbon market money for ageing coal plants has been slapped down in a backroom statement by the UK, France, Germany and four other countries.”

Green group, children sue Trump over climate change policies

The Hill

An environmental group and two Pennsylvania children have sued the Trump administration over the federal government’s approach to climate change, reports the Hill. “The lawsuit, filed in federal court in Pennsylvania, alleges the US is using ‘junk science’ to roll back policies designed to limit the impact of climate change.” The Hill says the suit has been filed by the Philadelphia-based Clean Air Council and two “child plaintiffs who have been personally impacted by climate change,” because one has asthma and another lived through Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Irene.

Fracking firm to give first households £2,000 payouts

The Guardian

A group of residents in Lancashire will soon receive £2,070 each for living near a fracking site, in the first payments made direct to British householders by a shale gas company. The Guardian reports that Cuadrilla has said 29 households within a 1km radius of the site would get the payment as part of a £100,000 community benefit fund for the second well it is drilling at a site between Blackpool and Preston that has attracted ongoing anti-fracking protests. People in a further 259 properties who live between 1km and 1.5kms away are eligible for a £150 payment. The Financial Times also carries the story.

Households with solar face rising energy bills

The Times

The Times reports that a million households that have installed solar panels face an increase in their energy bills under Ofgem plans to overhaul the way Britain’s electricity networks are funded. It adds: “Electric vehicle owners who charge their cars at peak times also face paying bigger levies towards the upkeep of power networks than those who charge overnight, the regulator has proposed.” The energy regulator has begun a consultation on moving to a new system by 2021 and says that the current network funding model “may be unfair and is only going to get more unfair”.

UK prepares to press ahead with small nuclear power plants

The Financial Times

The FT reports that “talks have intensified” in recent weeks between UK government officials and companies, including Rolls-Royce, over potential public funding to support development of so-called small modular reactors. It says: “British ministers are preparing to revive the UK’s faltering effort to create a new generation of small-scale nuclear power plants in spite of an official analysis that cast doubt on the economic case for the technology…Development of SMRs is regarded as crucial to the future of the nuclear industry as it struggles to remain competitive against the rapidly falling cost of renewable wind and solar power.”

Natural gas emissions will blow Europe’s carbon budget at current levels

The Guardian

Governments have drastically underestimated methane emissions from natural gas and will miss the 2C goal unless they urgently scale down its use, a major new study has found. The Guardian reports: “Continuing natural gas emissions at present levels will add 0.6C to global warming and, with other fossil fuel use, exhaust Europe’s carbon budget – the amount it can safely and fairly emit – in less than a decade, says the report by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. It concludes that Europe must phase out all fossil fuels including gas by 2035 and decrease emissions by 12% per year – far beyond its current ambitions – to keep to the Paris 2C pledge.”

Comment

How India’s battle with climate change could determine all of our fates

Damian Carrington & Michael Safi, The Guardian

The Guardian has published a feature focusing on why Indian is so crucial to progress on curbing global emissions: “[Ajay Mathur, the head of the Energy and Resources Institute, an influential Delhi-based thinktank], who was the Indian delegation’s spokesman at the 2015 Paris climate summit, says that once batteries become powerful enough to store renewable energy for night time or when winds are weak, India’s energy emissions are likely to plateau and then fall. ‘I personally saw this happening around 2035, but in the past three years, that has shifted to 2025, driven by the news in the solar prices and the sharper than expected fall in the price of batteries.'”

Here’s How Far the World Is From Meeting Its Climate Goals

Brad Plumer & Nadja Popovitch, New York Times

“No major industrialized country is currently on track to fulfill its pledge, according to new data from the Climate Action Tracker,” states the New York Times in a new feature. “Not the European Union. Not Canada. Not Japan. And not the United States, which under President Trump is still planning to leave the Paris agreement by 2020.” In the feature, the NYT shows how Climate Action Tracker provides a rough estimate of the cuts each country would need to make to avoid 2ºC of warming, with wealthier nations expected to do more.

We have every reason to fear Trump’s pick to head Nasa

Dana Nuccitelli, The Guardian

Unlike past Nasa administrators, Trump nominee Jim Bridenstine doesn’t have a scientific background, notes Nuccitelli. “He’s a Republican Congressman from Oklahoma and former Navy pilot. He also has a history of denying basic climate science. That’s concerning because Nasa does some of the world’s best climate science research, and Bridenstine previously introduced legislation that would eliminate Earth science from Nasa’s mission statement.”

Science

How much do direct livestock emissions actually contribute to global warming?

Global Change Biology

Non-CO2 emissions from livestock and CO2 from converting land to pasture have caused around 23% of the total warming of 0.81C from all human activity up to 2010, a new study suggests. Using a simple carbon cycle-climate model, historical estimates and future projections of livestock emissions, researchers estimate the fraction of actual warming that is attributable to direct livestock non-CO2 emissions now and in future, and to CO2 from pasture conversion. Direct non-CO2 livestock emissions could contribute as much as 18% to warming in 2100 if global CO2 emissions from other sectors are reduced in line with limiting warming to well below 2C, the study says.

A two‐year forecast for a 60‐80% chance of La Niña in 2017‐18

Geophysical Research Letters

There is a 60-80% likelihood that a two-year cool La Niña event will develop in the Pacific Ocean over the 2017-18 boreal winter, a new study suggests. Using a climate model and an empirical model, the researchers make predictions for the coming winter starting from conditions in November 2015. In comparison, the models suggest there is less than 8% chance of a warm El Niño event emerging.

Effectiveness of state climate and energy policies in reducing power-sector CO2 emissions

Nature Climate Change

With the US planning to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, a new study analyses the effectiveness of state-level policies to reduce power plant CO2 emissions. The assessment of 17 policies reveals that those with mandatory compliance are reducing power-plant emissions, while voluntary policies are not. “Electric decoupling, mandatory greenhouse gas registry/reporting and public benefit funds are associated with the largest reduction in emissions,” the researchers say.

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