China Briefing 20 August 2026: Oil and gas plan | Xi on climate change | Coal five-year plan
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China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
More plans published
FOSSIL FUELS: China has published a five-year plan for oil and gas development, which targets a “broad expansion of domestic production, pipeline infrastructure and storage capacity”, reported financial news outlet Caixin. The plan hones in on two priorities, it added: energy security and peaking oil consumption in tandem with the “gradual integration of lower-carbon alternatives”. Industry news outlet China Electric Power News noted that the plan “markedly elevates” the role of gas to an “indispensable” energy source for hard-to-electrify industries and a “power system stabiliser”. [For the five-year plan on developing the coal industry, see today’s Spotlight.]
POWER SAFETY: China published an “action plan” for the safe production of power during the 15th five-year plan period (2026-2030), reported industry news outlet BJX News. It said the plan aims to prevent “major systemic safety risks”, including by strengthening “risk control for thermal power units” caused by the energy transition. An article on these risks by National Energy Administration head Wang Hongzhi was published at the same time in Study Times, a Communist party-linked newspaper. He pointed to “volatility and uncertainty of power flow” from renewables and “new operating conditions, such as deep peak-shaving by coal-fired power units”. However, he also noted the risks to power infrastructure from more frequent and “disastrous” extreme weather, “against the backdrop of global warming”.
TRANSPORT: A 15th five-year plan for an “integrated transport system” was also released, said BJX News. According to the outlet, the plan outlined goals to develop clean energy across transport infrastructure, helping the sector reach peak carbon emissions overall. China’s Civil Aviation Administration also published a 15th five-year plan for civil-aviation development, which included aims of replacing fossil fuels “safely and in an orderly way” and building an aviation carbon market.
OTHERS: China published a 15th five-year plan for ecological protection that includes aims to curb biodiversity loss and increase forest cover to 25.8% by 2030, state news agency Xinhua reported. Climate-focused platform IdeaCarbon reported that China’s central bank published a “reform and development plan” for 2026-2030, which includes a goal of improving the “quality and effectiveness” of financial support for the low-carbon transition.
Latest typhoon hit China
TYPHOON HITS: “More than a million people” were evacuated from Shanghai and other regions in eastern China as Typhoon Dolphin hit the city, reported BBC News. The storm brought heavy rains and “winds as strong as 94 miles [151km] per hour”, said the New York Times. Its “longevity and broad circulation” made the storm a “significant event” that broke rainfall records across the affected area, said Reuters. It noted that “scientists warn that typhoons have become more likely to affect east Asia as a result of climate change”.
XI COMMENTS: Qiushi, China’s leading ideological journal, published excerpts of a speech given in April by President Xi Jinping on preventing natural disasters. In his remarks, Xi noted that the “global climate continues to warm, with significant increases in extreme weather and disasters such as torrential rain, flooding, typhoons and droughts”. He added that these phenomena have “become more intense and are changing in terms of temporal and spatial distribution”.
INDUSTRY HALTED: The recent spate of typhoons has further disrupted economic activity, reported Bloomberg, “shutting down factories and ports [and] leading to power outages”, as well as forcing evacuations. Despite the rains, hydropower stations will “likely continue to prioritise water storage” over boosting hydropower output, said China Energy Net, due to the below-average rainfall that is expected over the course of this year.
DEADLY IMPACTS: A mudslide “triggered by a flash flood after a sudden burst of heavy rain” killed one person in the eastern province of Zhejiang, reported Reuters. Heavy rains also caused a levee breach in central China’s Henan province, reported the state-run newspaper China Daily. Disasters caused by “torrential rains” killed ten people in two southwestern provinces, according to Reuters, with more than 20,000 people evacuated from the regions. Thousands were also evacuated from Beijing ahead of heavy rains, reported the Guardian. Meanwhile, Southern Weekly covered the impact of the summer’s intense heat on people and crops. It cites scientists as saying that, against the backdrop of global warming, “heat domes” will occur more frequently and 40C summers will become “normal”.
More China news
- CODE IN EFFECT: China’s ecological and environmental code came into force on 15 August, reported state news agency Xinhua. The code acts as a “guarantee for China’s long-term decarbonisation”, experts previously told Carbon Brief.
- COAL POWER DOWN: China’s thermal power generation fell 3.5% in July, while wind and solar power grew 4.5% and 5.6% respectively, said China Electric Power News.
- TRANSPARENCY WORKSHOP: China and UN Climate Change jointly hosted a workshop with 24 countries on “strengthen[ing] climate transparency”, according to the Global Government Forum.
- POLYSILICON PLEDGE: “Eight of China’s largest polysilicon producers” have reportedly signed a pledge not to sell photovoltaic products below cost, said PV Magazine. India is developing “incentives” to encourage domestic manufacturing of polysilicon, which it currently imports from China, reported Reuters.
- CBAM STATEMENT: China, along with other members of the BRICS, said in a joint statement that the EU’s carbon border tax is a “unilateral, punitive, discriminatory and protection measure that is not in line with international law”, said the Indian Express.
- SMALL REACTORS: China issued new regulations on safety measures for small modular reactors, “charting a clear regulatory path” for the technology, said economic news outlet Jiemian.
Spotlight
China publishes coal five-year plan
China has released its 15th five-year plan for the development of the coal industry, covering 2026-2030 – a crucial period for the country’s plans to peak carbon emissions.
In this issue, Carbon Brief examines what the plan signals for coal’s future. A full version of this spotlight has been published on the Carbon Brief website.
Peaking coal consumption
Coal is a “foundational [source of] energy” for China, the plan began, “vital” for the economy, people’s livelihoods and energy security.
At the same time, the 15th five-year plan period marked a time of “significant transformation” for the coal industry, it said.
Coal is responsible for around 80% of China’s emissions, but its role in China’s energy mix is gradually being superseded by non-fossil energy.
Previously, government-affiliated organisations had mooted the possibility of coal consumption peaking “around 2027”.
The new plan pledged to peak use of the fuel during 2026-2030. However, it did not set a specific, government-endorsed year for the peaking.
Neither did it set a concrete target for coal production, although it reiterated a target for coal reserve-production capacity that had been revised down from the figure initially announced in 2024.
“This is clearly neither a coal phase-out nor phase-down plan,” Kevin Tu, non-resident fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, told Carbon Brief. He adds that it grants China “considerable flexibility…over the pace of the transition”.
“The absence of a 2027 deadline is significant, but I would be careful not to over-interpret it,” Tu told Carbon Brief.
While a 2027 peak for coal remains possible, he added, it is dependent on several factors, such as demand growth for power and coal and the renewables buildout.
Energy security guarantor
The plan also outlined a number of other targets for 2030, including:
- “Further strengthening” coal’s ability to be a “bottom-line guarantee”;
- “Basically establishing” a modern coal-industrial system;
- “Clearly improving” levels of “safe, green development”;
- “Clean, efficient use” of coal.
“Overall, this five-year plan is targeted at the coal industry, not the energy transition”, said Yang Biqing, energy analyst at Ember, although the energy transition and the peaking of coal consumption form its overarching context.
A key factor behind the plan is concerns around energy security, exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East.
National Energy Administration (NEA) head Wang Hongzhi stated in a press conference that “coal is [China’s] greatest source of confidence in ensuring a stable energy supply”.
The conflict will “reinforce coal’s role in China’s energy system”, both as a source of energy and as a feedstock for commodities, Li Shuo, China climate hub director at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told Carbon Brief.
The future of the industry
Despite reaffirming the importance of coal, the plan also emphasised that the overall role of the fuel in China will change, adding that the industry must adapt to this changing reality.
Companies should be supported in expanding into industries such as “power, new energy and chemicals”, it said.
It added that China should promote the shift to coal being used “equally” as a fuel and a feedstock, also urging policymakers to push through “construction of strategic coal-to-oil and gas bases”.
The focus on coal chemicals is one of the “most consequential parts of the plan”, said Tu.
The chemicals sector is China’s fastest source of emissions growth, although it remains well behind other industries in terms of total emissions.
Tu noted that the plan calls on the industry to decarbonise production, such as through low-carbon power, green hydrogen and carbon capture, utilisation and storage.
As such, he said, the signal is “not to exit coal chemicals, but to make them more efficient, higher-value and potentially less carbon-intensive”.
Watch, read, listen
SHOCK ABSORBER: Deutsche Welle talked to analysts about China’s oil imports following the Iran war, and what it might do next.
LOW-CARBON STEEL: Transition Asia published a report examining how “targeted adjustment[s]” to China’s carbon market mechanisms could boost uptake of electric arc furnaces in its steel industry.
BETTER STORAGE: The Environment China podcast interviewed Ember’s Yang Biqing on improving deployment of energy storage in China’s power system.
METRIC REBUTTAL: A Dialogue Earth commentary argued China’s changed carbon intensity metric “has not changed its climate pledges”. It was in response to an analysis by Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air co-founder Lauri Myllyvirta, who addressed the argument on LinkedIn.
148%
The year-on-year rise in Chinese exports of new-energy vehicles (NEVs) in July, according to data by the Chinese Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
4%
The year-on-year decline in domestic NEV sales, according to the same data. The decline is much narrower than the decline in overall car sales, which reached 21%.
New science
- Incorporating the health costs of elevated pollution from fossil-fuel plants into renewable capacity planning “could reduce reliance on fossil-fuel generation by ~50% in China by 2050” | Nature Geoscience
- “Sustained exposure” to both “problem” and “solution” framings of climate change – which together dominate Chinese media coverage of the topic – can foster “pro-environmental engagement” | Journal of Environmental Psychology
- Rising temperatures are causing seasonal snow cover in China to shift from a stable, “persistent” regime, to a less stable, “transient” one | Global and Planetary Change