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TODAY'S CLIMATE AND ENERGY HEADLINES

Briefing date 04.08.2020
BP halves dividend as Covid-19 turmoil pushes oil major to loss

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News.

BP halves dividend as Covid-19 turmoil pushes oil major to loss
Financial Times Read Article

In breaking news this morning, the Financial Times reports that the oil major BP has slashed its dividend for the first time since the Deepwater Horizon disaster in 2010. The company cut the shareholder payout by 50% for the second quarter to 5.25 US cents a share, “a drastic turnround” since the start of the year when BP’s confidence about cash generation led it to raise the dividend to 10.50 cents, the FT says. It adds: “The collapse in energy demand triggered by government measures to curb the spread of coronavirus has roiled the entire energy sector and crippled earnings.” BP has also announced a new strategy to deliver its “net-zero” ambition, Bloomberg reports, targeting a 10-fold increase in low-carbon investment by 2030 and a 30%-35% decline in emissions from its operations by that year. It also pledged to boost its renewable power generation to 50GW, while shrinking oil and gas output by 40% by 2030 compared with 2019, Reuters reports. Reuters says: “The portfolio it plans to build would include renewables, bioenergy and early positions in hydrogen and carbon capture and storage technology, with the bulk of the budget to be spent by 2025.” According to CNBC, Bernard Looney, CEO of BP, said in a statement this morning: “These headline results have been driven by another very challenging quarter, but also by the deliberate steps we have taken as we continue to reimagine energy and reinvent BP.” Yesterday evening, the Daily Telegraph reported that BP’s dividend “hung in the balance”. The article reads: “Analysts suggest that the market widely expects the company to follow in the footsteps of rival Shell, which slashed its dividend by two thirds last quarter, in what would be a major blow to BP’s army of retail investors.” Associated Press and Sky News also have the story.

Elsewhere, the Times reports that Shell has bought a company that helps Australian farmers to use their land differently to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. And both Reuters and Power Technology report that Poland’s deputy prime minister Jasek Sasin has said that the country plans to cease its dependency on coal “in 2050 or even 2060”. He is quoted as saying: “We are all surprised with the pace of climate policy changes…Today we need to reevaluate some comments due to what is happening around us.” Reuters adds: “The ruling Law and Justice party took power in 2015 partly on promises to sustain coal, but it has closed a number of mines since then and has encouraged investment in solar energy.”

'Worst-case' global warming scenario still best guide until 2050, study says
Cimate Home News Read Article

Climate Home News reports on a study suggesting that “RCP8.5” – a scenario that sees very high future greenhouse gas emission – is still the “best guide” available to scientists and policymakers up until 2050. (RCP8.5 is one of four main “Representative Concentration Pathways” that outline different scenarios for future greenhouse gas emissions. More information is available in Carbon Brief’s explainer on RCP8.5.) The study argues that, historically, RCP8.5 had accurately tracked cumulative CO2 emissions to within 1% in the years 2005-2020, Climate Home News says. That was more precise than the other three main pathways for emissions until 2100, it adds. RCP8.5 is also the pathway most consistent with current government policies and pledges out until 2050, according to the study, which was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Climate Home News says. Carbon Brief’s climate science contributor Zeke Hausfather – who has previously advised against RCP8.5 being described as a “business-as-usual” scenario – has responded to the new study in a Twitter threadInsideClimate News and Newsweek also cover the study.

England's biggest landowners not growing enough trees – report
The Guardian Read Article

The Guardian reports that many of England’s biggest landowners are not planting “enough trees” to tackle climate change. A Friends of the Earth report says that government departments, the royal family and organisations such as the Church of England and the National Trust are among the biggest owners of land in the country, but most have forest cover on their land that is only slightly above the national average – despite having pledged to reduce their carbon footprint, the Guardian reports. It adds: “That shows most of the biggest landowners could and should do more to plant trees, according to the campaigning charity, which is calling for a doubling of the UK’s forest cover as part of the push to net-zero carbon emissions.” The article includes a “landowner league table for woodland cover”, which sees the Forestry Commission coming out on top, followed by the National Trust and the Ministry of Defence.

Comment.

Let’s hire laid-off oil and gas workers to fight climate change
Michael R Bloomberg, Bloomberg Read Article

For his publication, former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg argues that laid off oil and gas workers should be employed to clean up abandoned fossil fuel extraction sites across the US. He says: “It’s an idea that appeals to environmental groups, fossil fuel dependent states, and even some fossil-fuel industry leaders. Former vice president Joe Biden has included the idea as part of his green energy campaign platform. I’ve spoken with him about it, and I know how strongly he supports it. It’s a perfect example of how growing the economy and fighting climate change go hand in hand.”

Biden has shown that bold climate action is now common sense. Will UK politicians learn?
Matthew Pennycook, The Guardian Read Article

For the Guardian, Labour MP and shadow climate minister Matthew Pennycook argues that UK politicians should follow in the footsteps of Democrat president candidate Joe Biden in prioritising “bold climate action”. Pennycook says: “The plan is also a clear indication that a man viewed by many as the consummate centrist Democrat now accepts that averting runaway global heating requires a fundamental reshaping of the US economy rather than mere tinkering around the edges, and that both the speed and scale of climate action matter. By comparison, the climate proposals that formed part of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign, considered ‘ambitious’ just four years ago, amounted to just $90bn of investment – about a 20th of what Biden is now promising.”

Life and death in our hot future will be shaped by today’s income inequality
Eric Roston, Paul Murray and Rachael Dottle, Bloomberg Read Article

In an interactive feature, Bloomberg journalists Eric Roston, Paul Murray and Rachael Dottle explore the new results of a new Climate Impact Lab report mapping the relationship between temperature, income and mortality. The feature reads: “The researchers from the Climate Impact Lab determined that the toll from future heat will be far worse than expected, with the global annual mortality rate at the end of this century rising by 73 deaths per 100,000 people solely from excess heat. That’s a death rate comparable to the 79 per 100,000 that New York State has seen from Covid-19 since January.” In a second article, Bloomberg summarises the main takeaways from the report. The Guardian also reports on the new data.

Science.

RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Read Article

In a “brief report” paper, a group of researchers contribute to the ongoing debate around the RCP8.5 emissions scenario – the “most aggressive scenario in assumed fossil fuel use for global climate models”. Despite some recent progress on bending the emissions curve, RCP8.5 “will continue to serve as a useful tool for quantifying physical climate risk, especially over near- to midterm policy-relevant time horizons”, the researchers argue. They add: “Not only are the emissions consistent with RCP8.5 in close agreement with historical total cumulative CO2 emissions (within 1%), but RCP8.5 is also the best match out to midcentury under current and stated policies with still highly plausible levels of CO2 emissions in 2100.” (For more on RCP8.5, see Carbon Brief’s explainer.)

Identification of local water resource vulnerability to rapid deglaciation in Alberta
Nature Climate Change Read Article

The retreat of glaciers in Canada could have major impacts on glacier-fed water resources during warm and dry seasons in Alberta, a new study warns. Using observed streamflow measurements, gridded climate data and a database of municipal water sources for communities in Alberta, the researchers “identify the relative importance of glacier runoff at the local scale”. In a scenario of negligible glacier runoff, the study predicts “unprecedented streamflow lows at several communities”.

Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios
Nature Energy Read Article

A new study conducts a “comprehensive review” of climate change impacts on energy systems across the world. Analysing results from 220 studies, the researchers find that “globally, a potential increase in cooling demand and decrease in heating demand can be anticipated, in contrast to slight decreases in hydropower and thermal energy capacity”. Impacts at the regional scale are more mixed and relatively uncertain across regions, the study finds, but the “strongest impacts are reported for South Asia and Latin America”.

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