Many newspapers, including the Times, cover a new study showing that global warming could be kept to 2C by the end of the century – if all countries honour their climate pledges following COP26. “Before these pledges it was more than likely that at the peak of the climate crisis there would be a temperature rise above 2C, bringing more severe impacts for billions of people,“ writes the Guardian, adding: “Now it is more likely that the peak temperature rise will be about 1.9C.” However, the likelihood of reaching 1.5C warming – the other climate goal of the Paris Agreement – is now “only a 6-10% chance”, the Independent reports. Associated Press reports the world will “blast past” 1.5C within the next three years without dramatic new emission cuts this decade. A 2C warmer world “still represents what scientists characterise as a profoundly disrupted climate with fiercer storms, higher seas, animal and plant extinctions, disappearing coral, melting ice and more people dying from heat, smog and infectious disease,” the newswire warns.

Co-author and International Energy Agency spokesman Christophe McGlade calls the research “big news”, but adds, reports the Sydney Morning Herald, that “it can’t be taken for granted that governments will implement their pledges on time and in full, [and] it’s unfortunately the case that pledges have not been backed up by the strong and credible near-term policies needed to make them a reality”. In addition, the pledges include “those that developing countries have said will not happen without more financial and technical support”, says the Guardian.

“Actually achieving any long-term targets, the scientists say, will require nations to significantly boost their efforts today. Many countries have pledged relatively modest reductions in emissions by the end of the decade, meaning they would have to follow an improbably steep downward trajectory after 2030 to have a shot of achieving their mid-century goals,“ the Washington Post reports. The MailOnline, Bloomberg and the BBC also have the story.

The new findings align with Carbon Brief analysis that was published during COP26.

A group of “Extinction Rebellion scientists” stuck pages of scientific papers to the windows of the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, as well as glued their hands to the glass and spray-painted the XR symbol onto the building, the Guardian reports. A subset of the 25 protesters were arrested, the paper adds. According to the Daily Telegraph, business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng accused the group of “endangering British energy security and jobs”. The paper quotes Kwarteng’s response to Extinction Rebellion: “My message to XR [Extinction Rebellion] activists gluing themselves (?!) to my Department: You cannot – and we won’t – switch off domestic oil and gas production. Doing so would put energy security, jobs and industries at risk – and would simply increase foreign imports, not reduce demand.”

Meanwhile, other Extinction Rebellion activists glued themselves to the reception desk at Shell’s headquarters in London, the Independent reports. “The action on Wednesday, organised by environmental group Extinction Rebellion, was focused on getting the attention of Shell employees, whom they hoped to convince to ‘jump ship’,” the newspaper says. Elsewhere, a group of Just Stop Oil protesters have “been arrested on their twelfth day of action as they glued their hands to roads and climbed on top of oil tankers in Essex”, the Independent says. The series of protests come during a week of mass action by the group, which also saw the entrance to Lloyd’s of London blocked, the paper notes, separately. Meanwhile, the Independent reports that Nasa climate scientist Peter Kalmus – who was arrested in the US after blocking the entrance to a JP Morgan-Chase building – “[broke] down in tears” at the protest. Separately, the paper has published a piece entitled: “Who are Extinction Rebellion and what are their aims?”

Separately, the Independent reports that Labour leader Keir Starmer was “confronted by a youth climate activist after his party called on the government to ban fossil fuel protests across Britain”. It says that Starmer “look[ed] flustered when asked to defend the plan to jail climate activists”. Elsewhere, the Guardian reports that a judge has fined 12 Insulate Britain protestors for disrupting drivers on the M25, but said the activists commitment “inspired” him “personally”. And BBC News reports that Extinction Rebellion have been door-knocking across London to attract new members.

Germany’s Tagesschau reports that the Germany’s leading economic research institutes have “drastically lowered their [economic] growth forecast for 2022 from 4.8% to 2.7%” and, according to the calculations, stopping Russian gas supplies “would have devastating consequences for the German economy”. Reuters also covers a story, adding that “the chairman of three German parliamentary committees called for the European Union to impose an embargo on Russian oil as soon as possible”. The Financial Times notes that the findings claim that more than 400,000 jobs to be lost. The forecast is more pessimistic than most earlier studies, it adds, and “could give cover for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government to push back against calls for an immediate ban on Russian oil and gas imports”. Politico adds: “The report also said that a sudden halt in gas supplies would endanger €220bn in German economic output; further fuel inflation to 7.3% this year, compared with a baseline scenario of 6.1%; and reduce a contraction in unemployment expected this year from 5% currently to 5.2%.” The Daily Telegraph also covers the report, noting that Germany gets one-third of its gas from Russia.

Elsewhere, Reuters covers a warning from Vladimir Putin, who has said that Russia can redirect its oil, gas and coal away from western countries while increasing consumption on the domestic market. The newswire continues: “Putin said the West was to blame for the energy crunch it was experiencing because it would not cooperate with Russia…Putin also said that ‘unfriendly countries’ had destroyed supply chains in Russia’s Arctic regions and some nations were not fulfilling their contractual obligations, creating issues for Moscow.” Bloomberg adds that “in the first six days of April, Russian output dropped the most in almost two years to about 10.52m barrels a day”. Elsewhere, the Financial Times covers the latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency, which finds that “global oil market will avoid a ‘sharp’ deficit this year as emergency stock releases and slowing demand from China offset the impact of lower production from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine”. Reuters adds that, according to the forecast, “the impact of sanctions and buyer aversion on Russian oil will take full effect from May onwards”.

Elsewhere, Politico calls the war between Russia and Ukraine a “short-term win for coal”. As the EU diversifies away from Russian energy imports, “the first fuel to be targeted is coal”, the paper says. Separately, the outlet has published a piece entitled: “Climate’s ‘messy moment’ as countries hunt for oil and gas to replace Russian imports.”

Meanwhile, German police have disrupted a right-wing group allegedly planning an attack on the nation’s energy grid, Deutsche Welle reports: “Investigators in Germany say an extremist chat group planned bomb attacks to knock out power nationwide.“ They hoped, says the outlet, to create “a civil war-like” situation to topple the country’s democratic system of government.

Elsewhere, Der Tagesspiegel reports that German construction and transport industries “emitted more greenhouse gases last year than the maximum amount provided for in the Federal climate protection act”.

Finally, Austrian chancellor Karl Nehammer has said in an interview with CNN that cutting off Russian gas right now is “impossible” and that the EU should instead impose sanctions that do more harm to Russia than the European Union.

The “deadliest storm on record” has hit South Africa, causing “devastating” floods and more than 300 deaths, the Guardian reports. The newspaper quotes South African president Cyril Ramaphosa, who linked the “catastrophic” rainfall to climate change: “This disaster is part of climate change. We no longer can postpone what we need to do … to deal with climate change. It is here, and our disaster management capability needs to be at a higher level”. The paper adds that some parts of KwaZulu-Natal received more than 450mm in just 48 hours – nearly half of Durban’s annual rainfall of 1,009mm. “Rain continued in parts of the city on Wednesday afternoon, and a flood warning was issued for the neighbouring province of Eastern Cape… Southern parts of the country are bearing the brunt of the climate crisis – suffering recurrent and worsening torrential rains and flooding. Floods killed 140 people in 1995” it adds. BBC News also covers the floods, noting that local authorities are calling for a state of disaster to be declared.

California has revealed a proposed mandate which would require 35% of new passenger vehicles sold in the state to be powered by batteries or hydrogen by 2026, the New York Times reports. It continues: “If the board finalises the plan in August, it could set the bar for the nation’s automobile industry. California is the largest auto market in the US and the 10th largest in the world. In addition, 15 other states — including New York, Massachusetts and North Carolina — have previously followed California’s moves regarding tailpipe emissions and may adopt similar proposals.” However, the paper notes that only 12.4% of new vehicles sold in California are currently “zero-emissions”. The Hill also covers the proposed mandate, noting that one-quarter of California’s emissions currently come from fossil fuel-powered cars. It adds that the state aims for only non-emitting vehicles to be sold by 2035.

In other US news, Politico reports that “President Joe Biden’s focus on trying to ease the pain at the gas pump has left his green supporters dispirited and divided over whether his bold promises to drive a transition to clean energy and fight climate change may be slipping away”. Meanwhile, the Independent reports that tornadoes have left tens of thousands of people without power in Louisiana and Texas. Separately, the paper asks: “Is there a link between tornadoes and the climate crisis?” Elsewhere, AP reports that Floridians have been warned to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season. AP also reports on a drought in the western US.

China’s coal imports “rebounded” from “a two-year low in February”, reaching 16.42m tonnes in March, Reuters reports, citing data from the China’s General Administration of Customs. However, the figure was still “40% lower” year-on-year, the newswire says. The news came as buyers “shied away from expensive imports and turned to price-capped domestic supply”, according to the newswire. Meanwhile, Bloomberg explains how China’s solar power industry is “hit” by its “strict” Covid-19 measures due to a recent wave of virus outbreaks. The outlet reports that manufacturers are “cutting production amid complaints of shipment delays and staffing problems”.

Separately, the Global Times reports that northern China’s Shanxi Province has “pledged to eliminate” the use of “bulk coal” – coal intended for “civil use, including small boilers and home heating” – in Jinzhong Basin. Citing a local government plan to “achieve clean heating in winter”, the state-run newspaper says that the move is expected to take place before the 2022 heating season begins “later in the year”. The outlet says that the plan asks Shanxi province – described as “coal-rich” by the outlet – to focus on cities and counties with “severe pollution problems”. China’s state news agency Xinhua covers the same government plan. It reports that the plan proposed the implementation of a “zero bulk coal project” in cities in central Shanxi.

Elsewhere, China’s Energy magazine explains why China should “promote oil and gas reserves and new energy storage” to ensure energy security. The piece highlights that China’s “foreign oil dependence” – or oil imports – is “increasing year by year” and has “exceeded 70% around 2020” while the natural gas “dependence” currently “exceeds 40%”. Finally, an “exclusive” by Reuters notes that China’s “top” offshore oil and gas producer CNOOC is “preparing to exit its operations in Britain, Canada and the United States” due to China’s concern that “the assets could become subject to Western sanctions”. The newswire cites “industry sources”.

The Guardian carries a comment piece from Miranda Whelehan – a Just Stop Oil activist who spoke on TV show “Good Morning Britain” on Tuesday – under the subheading: “I wanted to sound the alarm about oil exploration and the climate crisis, but Good Morning Britain just didn’t want to hear.” Whelehan, who is a student, says that “the simplicity of our demands seemed to annoy my interviewer” and that when discussing the recent IPCC report, the interviewers “didn’t seem to care”. She continues: “People were quick to point out the parallels with a key scene in Don’t Look Up, when Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence’s characters, both astronomers, go on a morning talkshow to inform the public about a comet that’s heading to Earth, potentially leading to an extinction-level event. The newsreaders don’t care about what they have to say: they prefer to ‘keep the bad news light’.” She adds that the response to the interview on social media was “very supportive”, and that “if the thousands of people on Twitter who disagree with [interviewer] Madeley’s approach joined the actions of Just Stop Oil, the possibilities for change would be endless”. She continues: “Given the government’s inaction, which I believe will be judged as criminal in the near future, there are no longer any options left than to take clear direct action in the form of civil resistance…Civil resistance is really not about protests or marches, it is about responding to a situation beyond our worst nightmares.” Elsewhere, Independent writer Harry Cockburn says that “the fastest way to get Extinction Rebellion to stop is to listen to them”, adding that “the people with the power to end the disruption are in government”.

Meanwhile, newspaper and print media cartoonist Jawad Iqbal has written a comment piece in the Times criticising a judge who said he was “personally inspired” by the actions of climate protesters. And Times columnist David Aaronovitch has written a piece entitled, “It took a pandemic for us to listen to scientists properly”, under the subheading: “Misinformation and ignorance has dogged discussion of GM crops, MMR and climate change but Covid has brought welcome clarity.”

Egyptian UN Climate Change high-level champion Mahmoud Mohieldin has penned an opinion piece for Climate Home News arguing that “we must not let the current geopolitical crisis weaken our momentum towards a net zero and climate-resilient world”. Mohieldin says that while “we must phase down fossil fuel use and investing in renewables”, we must also “turn our attention to local, regenerative and natural agricultural practices that drawdown carbon and boost biodiversity”. He continues: “Before the current geopolitical crisis food and energy prices had already been pushed to historic highs. But just days into the crisis, prices surged higher – of particular concern to Africa, Asia and the Middle East that depend heavily on wheat imports. Transforming food systems could release back the $12tn the world spends on the hidden cost of food, from transportation to fertilisers. We could also eliminate nearly all of the 8.5% of emissions that come from agriculture…My wish is that COP27 in Egypt provides a pivotal moment for the food and agriculture agenda that highlights and encourages future innovation for climate-resilient and sustainable agriculture practices.”

Jakob Schlandt, editor-in-chief of Tagesspiegel Background Energy & Climate, writes that “in the first three months of the year, gas consumption in Germany was 9.2% below the previous year’s figures, according to a new BDEW [Federal association of energy and water management] statistic”. Schlandt refers to the Brussels thinktank Bruegel, which estimates that gas consumption in the EU fell by 7% in the first quarter of 2022. The author underlines the conclusion of the Bruegel experts: “This is a promising start given that Russia invaded Ukraine towards the end of the first quarter of 2022 and the EU and its members have not yet implemented strict energy saving strategies”.

New and updated climate pledges up to and including those at COP26 in Glasgow last year could help keep global warming below 2C – if “implemented in full and on time”, a new study suggests. Running simulations of all conditional and unconditional pledges combined, the researchers find that peak warming could be limited to 1.9-2C in the case of “full implementation”. However, limiting warming to “well-below” 2C or 1.5C, as per the Paris Agreement, “urgently requires policies and actions to bring about steep emission reductions this decade, aligned with mid-century global net-zero CO2 emissions”, the authors say. An accompanying News & Views paper – co-written by Carbon Brief’s Dr Zeke Hausfather – warns that “optimism should be curbed until promises to reduce emissions in the future are backed up with stronger short-term action”.

Despite renewable energy being “cost effective”, there “appear to be substantial barriers to building new renewable energy facilities” in the US, a new study says. The researchers identify “53 utility-scale wind, solar and geothermal energy projects that were delayed or blocked between 2008 and 2021 in 28 US states”. The study finds “seven key sources of opposition”, noting: “Of the projects we studied, 34% faced significant delays and difficulties securing permits, 49% were cancelled permanently, and 26% resumed after being stopped for several months or years.” Project delays and cancellations “account for potential lost generating capacity of almost 4,600 megawatts”, the paper says.