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TODAY'S CLIMATE AND ENERGY HEADLINES

Briefing date 08.08.2017
Government report finds drastic impact of climate change on U.S. as federal department censors use of ‘climate change’

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News.

Government Report Finds Drastic Impact of Climate Change on U.S.
New York Times Read Article

The US has already experienced rapid and drastic warming since 1980, with recent decades the warmest of the past 1,500 years, according to a leaked draft of a federal government climate change report, still awaiting approval by the Trump administration, and obtained by the New York Times’s Lisa Friedman. The draft report, by scientists from 13 federal agencies, says Americans are “feeling the effects of climate change right now,” Friedman writes, adding that “scientists say they fear the Trump administration could change or suppress the report. The draft report says: “Evidence for a changing climate abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans”. Trump administration officials received a copy of the most recent fifth draft of the report several weeks ago, the Washington Post reports. It obtained a third draft, but cites “people familiar with both versions” to say there is “no substantive difference”.

US federal department is censoring use of term 'climate change', emails reveal
The Guardian Read Article

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has asked staff to refer to “weather extremes” instead of “climate change”, according to a front-page exclusive in the Guardian. The story is based on “a series of emails obtained by the Guardian”. Other terms to avoid, the emails say, include “climate change adaptation”, which should be replaced by “resilience to weather extremes”. In a statement, the department tells the Guardian: “This guidance, similar to procedures issued by previous administrations, was misinterpreted by some to cover data and scientific publications. This was never the case and USDA interim procedures will allow complete, objective information for the new policy staff reviewing policy decisions.” The complete string of emails discussed in the Guardian article are published by the paper. A story from Inside Climate News also publishes the emails, which it says were released to the Center for Biological Diversity last week, in response to a freedom of information request. The Hill and Think Progress also pick up the story.

Scrapping Climate Protections Would Erase $300 Billion in Benefits, Study Finds
Inside Climate News Read Article

Climate rules targeted by the Trump administration bring benefits of nearly $300bn, according to a new study reported by Inside Climate News. This figure, which is four times greater than the costs of the regulations, comes from adding up government cost-benefit analyses of the rules. These analyses rely on the social cost of carbon – see this detailed Carbon Brief Q&A for details – in order to calculate the benefits of avoiding greenhouse gas emissions.

British Gas under pressure as regulator tightens pre-pay meter price cap
The Telegraph Read Article

Energy regulator Ofgem has reduced the price cap for customers on pre-payment meters, report the Telegraph and others. Ofgem said the reduction was due to falling wholesale prices and lower-than-expected policy costs, reports the Times, which notes that British Gas raised its electricity prices last week, blaming policy and network costs (see Carbon Brief’s factcheck on the British Gas announcement). The BBC also reports on the Ofgem decision. Separately, the Times reports that Prof Dieter Helm, who will chair an independent review of energy costs, will spend only 30 days on the project, earning £15,000. The review is due to report by the end of October, with the Times noting Helm’s 30 days are “less than half the working days between now and his deadline”.

'Dodgy' greenhouse gas data threatens Paris accord
BBC News Read Article

Emissions of potent greenhouse gases are being under-recorded in inventories submitted to the UN, a BBC investigation says. Air samplers are highly uncertain but suggest much larger quantities being released than emissions inventories report, it says. These flaws pose a bigger threat to the Paris climate agreement than the US plan to withdraw, researchers told BBC Radio 4’s Counting Carbon programme. The BBC also points to revisions in Chinese data, explored in a Carbon Brief guest article earlier this year.

Comment.

Fossil fuel subsidies are a staggering $5 tn per year
John Abraham, The Guardian Read Article

Fossil fuel subsidies are worth 6.5% of global GDP, some $5tn per year, according to a study published in the journal World Development and reported by the Guardian. The study includes unpaid externalities, such as global warming impacts, in its tally of subsidies. Carbon Brief published an explainer on the challenge of defining fossil fuel subsidies in June.

Rise of electric cars challenges the world’s thirst for oil
Andrew Ward, Financial Times Read Article

Recent announcements by the UK and France of plans to ban sales of new petrol and diesel cars by 2040 amplify two critical questions for the oil industry, writes Andrew Ward in the Financial Times: will electric vehicles cause oil demand to decline, and if so, when? Ward explores “widely divergent forecasts” confronting oil firms with a strategic dilemma that they are “still in the early stages of addressing”. This is whether to focus on maximising returns from a “sunset business” or making the “big, risky investments needed to transition towards renewable energy”. Meanwhile Reuters reports comments from German deputy economy minister Matthias Machnig that the country should consider quotas for electric cars. A second Reuters article says the EU has no plans to introduce quotas of its own.

Trump falls flat with climate change retreat
Ed Crooks, Financial Times Read Article

So far, the consequences for the global energy industry of president Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change have been “negligible”, writes US industry and energy editor Ed Crooks in the Financial Times. “Of course, the full implications have yet to play out. But in the nine weeks since Mr Trump announced [his decision]…energy companies around the world have been making plans that suggest their views on the outlook have not changed in any significant way,” Crooks writes. He points to oil firm announcements aiming to avoid high-cost investments – a move that is in line with the idea of stranded assets due to climate action, Crooks points out.

Red faces become the norm at nuclear power groups
Andrew Ward, Financial Times Read Article

“It sometimes seems like US and European nuclear companies are in competition to see which can heap greater embarrassment on their industry,” writes energy editor Andrew Ward in the Financial Times. He looks back at the suspension of work at the VC Summer nuclear plant in South Carolina “to stem spiralling costs”. The project “risk[s] becoming an even bigger fiasco than those…at Flamanville in France and Olkiluoto, Finland,” he says. Ward also features a Carbon Brief graphic as his “chart of the week”. The chart is one of six produced in Carbon Brief’s review of UK energy in 2016.

Science.

Karakoram temperature and glacial melt driven by regional atmospheric circulation variability
Nature Geoscience Read Article

A new study suggests a solution to the “Karakoram anomaly” – where glaciers in the Karakoram mountain range in South Asia have been stable or growing while most glaciers in neighbouring ranges have retreated. Researchers identified a large scale circulation system, called the “Karakoram vortex”, which influences temperatures across South Asia in winter. During summer, the vortex contracts and brings cold air just to Karakoram and western Pamir. The vortex is currently providing a dampening effect on global warming, the researchers say, reducing glacial melt in the Karakoram region.

A spatially resolved estimate of High Mountain Asia glacier mass balances from 2000 to 2016
Nature Geoscience Read Article

Glaciers in “High Mountain Asia” lost more than 16bn tonnes of ice per year between 2000 and 2016, a new study says. Researchers calculated the mass changes of 92% of the glaciers in “High Mountain Asia” – the mountain ranges that surround the Tibetan Plateau, including the Himalayas and Hindu Kush – using digital elevation models and satellite imagery. The findings “provide crucial information for the calibration of the models used for projecting glacier response to climatic change,” the researchers say.

Climate, wildfire, and erosion ensemble foretells more sediment in western USA watersheds
Geophysical Research Letters Read Article

The likely increase in wildfires in the western US as the climate warms will mean more soil erosion and more sediment washing into rivers, a new paper suggests. Using climate, fire, and erosion models, the researchers project that post-fire sedimentation could increase by more than 10% for nearly 90% of river basins by 2014-2050, and by more than 100% for a third of them. Increased sedimentation could reduce water supply and quality for some communities, the paper says, and affect aquatic ecosystems and the stability of river channels.

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