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TODAY'S CLIMATE AND ENERGY HEADLINES

Briefing date 06.07.2022
Norway calls off gas strikes that risked UK supply

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News.

Norway calls off gas strikes that risked UK supply
BBC News Read Article

Strikes by oil-and-gas workers in Norway that threatened to cut off most of the UK’s gas imports from the country have been called off following an intervention by the Norwegian labour ministry, BBC News reports. Norway, which is Europe’s second-largest energy supplier after Russia, provides 77% of the gas that the UK imports, the piece notes, adding that about half of the UK’s gas is imported. As a Financial Times article states, Norway had warned that gas exports to the UK could be shut off this weekend during the strike, with up to 60% of its supplies under threat from the industrial action. As a follow up Financial Times article notes, while there were not immediate concerns due to relatively low gas consumption during summer, “there were fears it would further hamper Europe’s efforts to fill gas storage facilities ahead of what is expected to be a tough winter”. However, it notes that the Norwegian government has the authority to intervene in labour disputes under certain conditions. The article adds that the workers were striking over below-inflation pay increases at a time when oil-and-gas companies are earning record profits. Reuters notes that these government powers have previously been used to end petroleum sector strikes “to protect Norway’s reputation as a reliable gas supplier to Europe”.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Russian lawmakers have approved a temporary windfall tax on state-backed energy giant Gazprom, “a move that will channel billions of dollars into state coffers as natural-gas prices soar”. It notes that the bill has passed through the lower house of Russian parliament and still requires approval from the upper chamber and the president.

Another Bloomberg story reports on strikes by bus drivers in Maputo, Mozambique’s capital, which have come to an end after authorities pledged to “cushion the impact of record fuel prices by subsidising fares”. In the UK, DeSmog reports that “freight industry lobbyist and climate science denier” Howard Cox, who founded the FairFuelUK campaign against fuel duty, has backed protests blocking motorways over fuel costs, despite earlier criticising Insulate Britain climate protesters for using the same methods.

EU Parliament to vote on 'green' gas and nuclear rules
Reuters Read Article

Today, the European Parliament will decide whether to block or accept an EU law labelling investments in gas and nuclear power plants as “climate-friendly” as part of the bloc’s “green taxonomy”, Reuters reports. The proposal to do so by the European Commission, which will determine whether investors can label and market such activities as “green”, has “exposed deep rifts between countries over how to fight climate change”, the piece notes. It adds that a tight vote is expected, and notes that some EU lawmakers, the governments of Austria and Luxembourg and climate campaigners “have threatened to take legal action if the EU proposal becomes law”. EurActiv reports that the Ukrainian energy ministry has weighed into the debate by calling on the European Parliament to “positively consider” plans to label nuclear power and gas as green energy sources. According to the news website, Ukraine says it shares the objectives of the European Green Deal, but “has to admit that gas may still be needed as the transitional fuel”, emphasising the role that investment in both nuclear and gas will have in its post-war reconstruction. In a seemingly contradictory story, Bloomberg says that “European lawmakers are under pressure from Ukraine to block plans to treat gas as a green asset” as this would benefit Russia, although its evidence comes from comments made by Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany last week. The New York Times Climate Forward newsletter considers the question of the EU green taxonomy and whether gas should be classed as “green”.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reports that before the European Parliament’s decisive vote, environmentalists campaigned for a clear “no” to the plan. It adds that the German Fridays for Future activist Luisa Neubauer explicitly called on the MPs from Christian Democratic parties, such as the CDU and CSU, who are expected to tip the scales, to vote against the project as a whole. FAZ notes that Greens and Social Democrats are likely to vote against the proposal.

According to the Guardian, more than 50 scientists have warned MEPs that efforts to “water down” EU legislation on deforestation could undermine Europe’s net-zero plans. The article notes that last week environment ministers rewrote a draft regulation to define “forest degradation” as the replacement of primary forest with plantations or other wooded land, a move that – given the relatively low proportion of primary forest in Europe – would limit the law’s reach to just 2% of the total forest area.

In more European news, Reuters reports that Poland has adopted legislation making it easier to develop wind farms, as it seeks to diversify its energy supplies.

UK: MPs holding key climate roles stay on as Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid lead resignation flurry

As the UK government is “rocked by a flurry of high-profile resignations” that has seen chancellor Rishi Sunak and health secretary Sajid Javid both depart, Edie reports that “for now” MPs holding key climate-related positions within prime minister Boris Johnson’s cabinet are expected to stay. It says that business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng and environment secretary George Eustice are both expected to remain in their roles, but notes that important roles are being filled as the UK is striving towards a “net-zero target that needs to be financed through a realignment of the economy”. The piece also notes that the new chancellor Nadhim Zahawi has “historically voted against green legislation”, but did lead a scheme to embed climate awareness into the national curriculum for UK schools, as education minister. “There’s been very little said of it, but we’re currently halfway through the UK government’s Net-Zero Week to raise awareness and catalyse action towards the net-zero target set for 2050,” it adds. The Guardian says that while Zahawi is a co-founder of pollsters YouGov, he has “also made considerable sums from the oil industry” and, like Sunak, is one of the UK’s richest MPs. Bloomberg notes that “little is known publicly known about Zahawi’s economic views, though he has in the past advocated for tax cuts”. Meanwhile, the Times reports that environment secretary Eustice has given his support to the controversial and long-delayed plans for a new coal mine in Cumbria – a decision on which is expected this week.

An editorial in the Sun concerning the news from Westminster says that the new chancellor “must slash duty and VAT on fuel and the green levies and VAT on energy — then set about cutting other taxes too to create growth and boost investment”. The Daily Mail uses its editorial to speculate on the prospect of a country in which Labour enter into a “ramshackle left-wing alliance” with other parties to oust the Conservatives from power. “What would be the likely outcome? The dismantling of the UK, economic ruin, a full-on woke culture war, a net-zero nightmare and a new system of PR voting,” it states, somewhat breathlessly.

BusinessGreen reports that 75 leaders from civil society and academia have written an open letter to Kwarteng arguing that a “new vision of green finance” is needed to tackle the cost-of-living crisis, improve energy security and accelerate the net-zero transition. This includes “more ambitious action to work with private sector to bring UK’s financial system into line with climate goals”, it notes.

Finally, BBC News reports that household energy bills are now heading above £3,000 a year this winter, “7% higher than the predicted prices on which the government’s recently announced cost-of-living support package was based”.

Draft law shows Germany plans to revise key emissions target for energy sector
Reuters Read Article

Reuters reports that on Thursday the German lower house of parliament will vote on a law containing a revision from the previously pledged target to reach carbon neutrality in the energy industry by 2035. Instead, it aims to reach the mark after coal-fired energy plants are phased out, without setting an exact new date, the article states. Politico also covers this story, adding that the law “would allow the government to bail out ailing energy companies amid concerns that Russia might turn off the gas tap next week”. The article quotes vice-chancellor Robert Habeck saying “it’s about doing everything we can to maintain basic supplies through the coming winter and keep energy markets running as long as we can, despite high prices and growing risks”. However, German chancellor Olaf Scholz, speaking at an economic forum, declared that “we can do it” as he promoted his government’s efforts to exit its long-standing dependency on Russian gas and boost the use of renewables, adds another article from Politico.

Meanwhile, Die Welt reports that German ruling political parties – SPD, FDP and Greens – have reached an agreement on outstanding issues relating to the above-mentioned legislative package to expand green electricity. It explains that, by 2030, 80% of the electricity in Germany is to be provided by renewable sources, according to law. “With this comprehensive package, we are creating the basis for a climate-neutral energy supply in Germany”, said SPD parliamentary group leader Matthias Miersch on Tuesday in Berlin. German news website t-online also covers the story, adding that FDP representatives were those who demanded the 2035 climate goal be deleted. It also quotes the Greens’ parliamentary group leader Julia Verlinden, explaining that “we are unleashing solar energy and making sure there is enough space for more wind turbines”.

Shell signs up to Qatar project as LNG demand booms
Financial Times Read Article

Europe’s largest oil-and-gad company Shell has become the latest international partner in the expansion of the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Qatar, the Financial Times reports. The move comes as global demand for the fuel rises following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The new project will help Qatar to overtake Australia as the second-biggest producer of LNG, behind the US, the newspaper continues. Reuters notes that Shell will take a 6.25% stake in the $30bn North Field East expansion, while TotalEnergies and Exxon will also hold 6.25%. The Financial Times has a separate piece about how “Qatar has built an outsized role in global commodity markets since it first began exporting LNG more than two decades ago”. Referring to the North Field East expansion, the article notes that “the fact that big western energy companies were so keen to join the project is a testament to Qatar’s growing importance as a gas superpower” – a position that has been further boosted by the war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg has a piece about the importance of natural gas, as shortages ripple “throughout the global economy, threatening recessions and a further wave of inflation”. It says that gas is a key driver of global inflation, with price jumps of around 700% in Europe since the start of last year, “pushing the continent to the brink of recession”.

Elsewhere, Associated Press reports that a controversial project that would connect oilfields in a Ugandan National Park to a port in Tanzania “breaches global environmental guidelines for banks”, according to NGO the Africa Institute for Energy Governance.

Chinese electric vehicle maker overtakes Tesla
Financial Times Read Article

BYD, the Chinese auto “giant backed by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway”, has “dethroned Elon Musk’s Tesla as the world’s biggest electric vehicle producer by sales, signalling China’s rising dominance over the sector”, reports the Financial Times. Shenzhen-based BYD sold “641,000” vehicles in the “first six months” of 2022, “more than [a] 300% jump” from the same period a year earlier, the outlet writes. It says that this figure “compared with 564,000 vehicles” sold by Tesla, which has “blamed a tough second quarter on supply chain and sales disruptions in China after its operations were hit by coronavirus lockdowns and travel restrictions”. BYD’s “rise” “underscores” China’s “strengthening position in renewable energy…boasting scale and cost advantages across much of the supply chain for electric vehicles, batteries and wind and solar energy”, the article highlights. Separately, China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group said on Tuesday it would “start taking pre-orders for its first model”, reports Reuters, adding that the move is a “key milestone” for the unit of embattled property developer China Evergrande Group.

Meanwhile, another Reuters report says that heatwaves are “predicted to sweep through northern China in the next two weeks”, with “more than 250m people expected to grapple with temperatures exceeding 40C (104F) in some regions”. Fang Xiang, deputy head of the National Meteorological Center (NMC), is quoted saying that “the lasting high temperatures will cause a marked impact on production and life, such as increased pressure on power supply”. Additionally, Bloomberg carries an article titled: “China sees record rains, heat as weather turns volatile.“ The outlet notes that “no relief is in sight, with higher than usual temperatures and precipitation forecast in much of the country throughout July”, citing China Meteorological Administration.

Finally, the Global Times reports that China on Monday “proposed six programs which will benefit the Lancang-Mekong countries” aside from China, namely Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam, including cooperation plans in “agriculture, water resources, digital economy, aerospace, education and public health”, as Chinese state councilor and foreign minister Wang Yi chaired the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (LMC) in Bagan, Myanmar. Wang Yi is quoted saying that members under the LMC will “seek to further unleash the benefit of the China-Laos Railway, safeguarding regional production and supply chains and financial and energy security”, the state-sponsored outlet notes.

Electric cars provide a spark as sales approach 30-year low
The Times Read Article

New car sales in the UK “remain in a deep recession” amid high fuel costs and the cost of living crisis, the Times reports, but the remaining market is dominated by electric vehicles. One in six new cars coming onto the nation’s roads in June were fully electric plug-ins, boosted by a large shipment from the US of Tesla’s latest Model Y, the newspaper states. According to the article, sales of pure-electric cars rose 14% in the month to 22,700, making up 16% of all new registrations, while for the first six months of 2022 sales of such models were up 56% to 115,000, accounting for 14% of all sales.

The Daily Telegraph also has a story about a local police and crime commissioner in Gloucestershire raising concerns that “officers driving around in electric vehicles [are] having problems trying to find recharging facilities” and running out of power.

Meanwhile, another Times story reports that interest in solar panels in the UK has “shot up among homeowners as they try to protect themselves from rising energy prices”, with the number of small-scale installations hitting 11,000, up from 5,000 at the same time last year, according industry body Solar Energy UK.

Comment.

We need to draw down carbon – not just stop emitting it
Zeke Hausfather and Jane Flegal, MIT Technology Review Read Article

Zeke Hausfather and Jane Flegal write in the MIT Technology Review that carbon removal is “a necessary tool to keep temperatures in check”. (Both authors work for Stripe Climate, which is supporting carbon removal projects, and Hausfather also writes for Carbon Brief as a climate science contributor.) They note that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that the world may need to remove billions of tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere each year in the coming decades, on top of rapid emissions cuts, to prevent or pull the planet back from increasingly dangerous warming levels. They note the “legitimate concern” that focusing on removal will let governments and businesses avoid making the required emissions cuts. “There is, however, also a real risk that stigmatising carbon removal over moral hazard concerns creates an even greater danger: deferring much-needed investment and imperilling our ability to reach future climate goals,” they write. In conclusion, the authors say it is important to not see carbon removal as a silver bullet, and to avoid “dubious carbon offsets and credits” that don’t reliably and permanently draw down emissions. “Companies must make it a priority to reduce their climate pollution every way that they can, up and down the supply chain. They need to do rigorous and honest assessments to determine the sources and levels of whatever climate pollution they can’t fully eliminate yet,” they say.

It’s democracy vs plutocracy – this is the endgame for our planet
George Monbiot, The Guardian Read Article

In his weekly Guardian column, George Monbiot reflects on the recent decision by the US Supreme Court that concluded the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is not entitled to restrict carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from power stations. He relates this to the government’s Climate Change Committee reporting a “shocking” failure by the UK to meet its climate targets, and to his own dismay at the government blocking a water protection zone in the River Wye. “When I began work as an environmental journalist in 1985, I knew I would struggle against people with a financial interest in destructive practices. But I never imagined that we would one day confront what appears to be an ideological commitment to destroying life on Earth. The UK government and the US supreme court look as if they are willing the destruction of our life support systems,” Monbiot writes.

In another Guardian piece, author and climate activist Daniel Sherrell writes that following the EPA decision in the US, “our ability to maintain a safe climate now rests on the Democrats passing clean energy investments through congressional budget reconciliation”. He continues: “They only have about five weeks left to do it. This will be the defining moment of Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer’s political careers. They cannot waffle. They cannot get distracted. They cannot take two weeks to digest the ruling. Their best people should be working around the clock to land a climate deal that can pass the Senate”.

Science.

Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities
Nature Communications Read Article

Climate change could drive higher losses to fisheries than to agriculture for coastal communities in the Indo-Pacific, new research finds. The authors combine model results with socioeconomic surveys of more than 3,000 households in Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines and Tanzania to determine how climate change will affect key food production sections. They find that more than two thirds of the 72 locations studied will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, but that mitigation can lessen this impact. “Potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status,” the study adds.

Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports: a survey of experts from different scientific disciplines
Climatic Change Read Article

Physical science experts are more familiar with guidance around confidence levels and likelihood terms from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) than social science experts, according to a new study. The paper studies how the authors of IPCC reports interpret the uncertainty language recommended in IPCC guidance around how to use confidence levels to describe the quality of evidence and scientific agreement, and the likelihood terms to use. “Experts’ confidence levels increased more with perceptions of evidence than with agreement,” the authors find. They add that “experts’ estimated probability intervals for climate variables were wider when likelihood terms were presented with “medium confidence” rather than with “high confidence”.

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