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Daily Briefing |

TODAY'S CLIMATE AND ENERGY HEADLINES

Briefing date 25.09.2018
Oil climbs to 4-year high close to $81 a barrel

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News.

Oil climbs to 4-year high close to $81 a barrel
Financial Times Read Article

Oil prices rose to four-year highs near $81 a barrel after global producers decided against further output increases, despite pressure from US president Donald Trump for renewed action to cool prices. Oil producers met in Algeria on Sunday to discuss output policy as US sanctions on Iran’s energy sector, due to come into effect in November, are expected to reduce exports by almost two million barrels per day (bpd). The countries declined to increase production beyond what had been agreed in June. Brent crude rose by $2, surpassing $80 for the first time since late 2014. In a tweet last week, Trump said that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) “must get prices down now!”, notes Reuters, but Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said OPEC had not responded positively to Trump’s demands. Zanganeh said that Trump’s tweet “was the biggest insult to Washington’s allies in the Middle East”, reports BBC News. Commodity merchants Trafigura and Mercuria say that oil prices could rise towards $100 per barrel towards the end of the year or by early 2019 as sanctions against Iran bite, says another Reuters piece. And Reuters market analyst John Kemp writes that the oil market has “echoes of 2007-08” in the run up to oil prices hitting an all-time high of $146. Although in the longer-term, Saudi Arabia’s Aramco Trading Company announced it expects to increase its oil trading volume to six million bpd in 2020, 50% higher than current levels, reports Reuters. Meanwhile, another Reuters article reports that French oil and energy group Total has made a major gas discovery on the Glendronach prospect, located off the coast of the Shetland islands in the North Sea. Total said preliminary tests on the new gas discovery confirmed recoverable resources of around one trillion cubic feet. And finally in oil and gas news, Reuters also reports that a group of the world’s top oil and gas companies have pledged to cut methane emissions by a fifth by 2025 in an effort to slow climate change.

US to be hit worse than almost any other country by climate change, report says
The Independent Read Article

The US will be hit harder than almost any other country by climate change, according to a new study. For the first time, researchers have calculated the economic damage of carbon emissions – known as the “social cost of carbon (SCC)” – on individual countries, and the results show that considerable damage could be done to some of the world’s greatest powers. The three countries set to lose the most from climate change are the US, India and Saudi Arabia. The study “demonstrates that the argument that the primary beneficiaries of reductions in CO2 emissions would be other countries is a total myth,” said lead author Prof Kate Ricke. “We consistently find, through hundreds of uncertainty scenarios, that the US always has one of the highest country-level SCCs.” The findings also suggest that the damage being done worldwide by emissions is significantly higher than in estimates used by the US government, notes InsideClimate News. The Obama administration set its median SCC for the whole world at about $42 per tonne for 2020, but the new study puts its estimates for the US alone at nearly $48 per tonne. The study estimates India’s SCC at around $86 per tonne, Saudi Arabia at $47, and China, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates at $24. The global cost when the economic impact on all nations is added up is around $417 per tonne. In related news, Yale Environment 360 reports on a separate study that finds America’s national parks are warming up and drying out much faster than the rest of the US. The study found that the 417 protected areas in the US national parks system warmed an average 1C between 1885 and 2010 – twice the average US rate – and saw annual rainfall decline by 12%, compared to a 3% average drop across the US. The Mail Online also has the story, and the study’s lead author has a guest article in the Conversation.

Marshall Islands commit to going carbon-neutral by 2050
Climate Home News Read Article

The low-lying Marshall Islands released a new climate strategy yesterday with the aim to go carbon-neutral by 2050, becoming the first island nation to do so. Located close to the equator in the Pacific, the Marshall Islands consist of 1,156 islands with an average elevation of just six feet above sea level. The plan would slash emissions in the transport, energy and waste sectors. It also notes that one third of the country’s domestic emissions are from shipping. Full decarbonisation of the global shipping sector “appears to be unfeasible in the medium term”, the plan says, but “successful adoption of nascent low- or zero-carbon sea transport technologies at home could have ripple effects across the international shipping sector at large”. Unveiling the plan, Hilda Heine, the president of the Marshall Islands, said “once again, my country has shown that if one of the smallest and most isolated nations can do it – so can everyone else, including the big emitters”. Elsewhere, the New York Times reports on Costa Rica’s progress towards becoming the world’s first carbon-neutral nation.

Labour wants green energy to power most UK homes by 2030
The Guardian Read Article

Following on from yesterday’s coverage of Labour’s new “Green Transformation” environment policy, the Guardian reports that Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary, is expected to announce today that the party is committed to reducing UK greenhouse gas emissions to zero by the middle of the century. The UK’s current goal is an 80% cut by 2050. Measures to meet the strengthened target will include 85% of electricity coming from renewable and low-carbon sources by 2030. This will involve a sevenfold increase in offshore windfarms and a tripling of solar power, enabling nearly 20m homes to be powered by wind and solar.

Climate scientists reject 'offensive' claim of US, Saudi meddling in landmark report
Climate Home News Read Article

Climate scientists have denied that polluters are unduly influencing a UN special report on the 1.5C global warming limit, in response to an article in the Observer. The piece suggested that the report’s authors were watering down results to placate countries like Saudi Arabia, the US and Australia. Myles Allen, a lead coordinating author of the “summary for policymakers” element of the report, said it was “offensive” to suggest scientists did what governments told them. “It is painted as governments bullying scientists. It is demeaning to the governments, because it suggests they act unethically, and it is demeaning to the scientists, because it suggests we can be bullied,” he told Climate Home News. Other scientists also pushed back on the claims over Twitter.

Hurricane Florence insured losses to range from $2.8bn to $5bn: RMS
Reuters Read Article

Insured losses from Hurricane Florence, which descended on North Carolina this month, will range from $2.8bn to $5bn, the risk modelling firm RMS estimates. The figures include losses caused by high winds, storm surges, inland floods and the National Flood Insurance Program, RMS says. Meanwhile, Reuters also reports that thousands of people in and around the city of Georgetown, South Carolina, could be hit by severe flooding from two rain-gorged rivers as a result of the long-departed Hurricane Florence.

Comment.

Americans: the next climate migrants
Oliver Milman, The Guardian Read Article

In the Guardian, environment reporter Oliver Milman has a new series of articles on how wildfires, floods and heat will gradually force millions of Americans to move. Across three articles, Milman discovers how the “era of climate migration is, virtually unheralded, already upon America”, interviewsfive people who have been forced from their homes by extreme weather, and asks“where should you move to save yourself from climate change?”.

Discovery, Heatwave, The Long Hot Summer
Roland Pease, BBC World Service Read Article

In a two-part radio programme, Roland Pease investigates the causes behind the heatwaves and wildfires that have been a feature of the 2018 summer. Speaking to climate and weather scientists, Pease “picks apart the influences of the jet stream, the El Niño and the Atlantic decadal oscillation from that of global warming”.

Special report – Rethinking Energy
Financial Times Read Article

In an eight-part special report, the Financial Times reports on “rethinking energy” from different corners of the world. The articles cover topics such as renewable power markets in China and India, California’s plans to mandate that all new homes should have solar power by 2020, smart girds, fuel cells, and stimulating investment into carbon capture and storage.

Special report – Argentina: Energy
Financial Times Read Article

The Financial Times also has a special report on Argentina’s energy system. In a series of nine articles, the FT covers energy self-sufficiency, Argentina’s huge shale oil and gasfields at Vaca Muerta, its plentiful renewable sources such as wind and sun, and also Argentina’s high hopes for its nuclear power industry.

Science.

Country-level social cost of carbon
Nature Climate Change Read Article

The social cost of carbon – a metric of the economic losses incurred from CO2 emissions – is likely to be highest in India, China, Saudi Arabia and the United States, a new analysis shows. To estimate the cost for each country, the researchers combined recent climate model projections, empirical climate-driven economic damage estimations and socio-economic projections. The results show that the global cost is likely to be around US$417 per tonne of CO2 – many times higher than most previous estimates – while the country-level cost varies widely from nation to nation.

Differential vulnerability to climate change yields novel deep-reef communities
Nature Climate Change Read Article

Global warming is transforming the make-up of coral reefs that lie 30-90m deep in southeastern Australia, a new study finds. Using an underwater autonomous vehicle, scientists took photographs of the reef, which resides in an area that is a hotspot for ocean warming. The results “show an overall tropicalisation trend in these deep temperate reef communities,” the researchers say.

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