There is only a 5% chance that the Earth will avoid warming by at least 2C above pre-industrial levels come the end of the century, according to new research published in Nature Climate Change. This likelihood drops to 1% for the more stringent limit of 1.5C, the study finds. The researchers made their projection based on a statistical analysis of the past 50 years of trends in GDP, world population, and carbon intensity. Therefore, the findings don’t include the national commitments to cut emissions made under the Paris Agreement – though they do reflect the emissions reductions made as part of the Kyoto Protocol. Overall, the study shows a 90% chance that warming this century will hit between 2C and 4.9C, notes the Mail Online, with a most likely estimate of 3.2C. Lead author, Prof Adrian Raftery told the Thomson Reuters Foundationthat 2C “is achievable, but only with major, sustained effort on all fronts over the next 80 years.” A second study, published in the same journal, suggests there’s as much as a 32% chance that past emissions have already committed the Earth to warming of 1.5C, reports the Washington Post. But this assumes that global emissions stop overnight, “which is not going to happen”, notes the Post. Taking the two studies together, Dr Glen Peters, a climate policy expert at the Centre for International Climate Research in Oslo, told the Post that “it’s in a sense impossible that we’re not going to emit any more…We’re starting from 1.5C and going up from there in the future emissions that we have.” Both CNN and Gristcover the two studies together. Meanwhile, the Guardian also reports that the first half of 2017 have been the second-hottest first six calendar months on record, behind only 2016. According to NASA, average global surface temperatures so far this year are 0.94C above the 1950–1980 average. And finally, the Mail Online covers a new animation created by Dr Gavin Schmidt, the director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), which shows how monthly temperatures have crept upwards since the 19th century.

Work has been suspended on two nuclear reactors being built by Westinghouse in South Carolina. Construction of the “VC Summer” plant in Jenkinsville, jointly owned by two South Carolina utility companies, has been halted with immediate effect due to spiralling costs. The two reactors, which have cost the utilities roughly $9bn so far, remain less than 40% built, notes Reuters. Originally scheduled to come online by 2018, the project has been plagued by construction problems and disputes with regulators, says the New York Times. Earlier this year, utility officials estimated that the reactors would not begin generating electricity before 2021 and could cost as much as $25bn — more than twice the initial $11.5bn estimate. The utility companies behind the project are blaming Westinghouse for their decision, reports the Washington Post. Lonnie Carter, the president and chief executive of Santee Cooper, which has a 45% stake VC Summer plant, said in a statement that they “are disappointed that our contractor has failed to meet its obligations and put Santee Cooper and our customers in this situation.” Kevin Marsh, chief executive of SCANA – which holds a 55% stake – said that “many factors outside our control have changed since inception of this project.” He said that “chief among them” was “the bankruptcy [last year] of our primary construction contractor, Westinghouse.” Both companies said they would use payments from Westinghouse parent company Toshiba to offset potentially higher rates for customers, adds the The Hill. Another Westinghouse project for a pair of reactors in Georgia – led by a unit of Southern Company – is now the only new US nuclear plant under construction.

British Gas will increase electricity prices by 12.5% from 15 September, its owner Centrica has announced. Consumer chief executive Mark Hodges said the rise “reflects an underlying increase in policy and transmission costs.” British Gas had been widely expected to increase prices after the summer, says the Financial Times, as it was the only one of the “big six” suppliers that did not increase prices for households in the spring. Gas prices will be held at their current level, notes the Telegraph. Analysis from the Committee on Climate Change, covered by Carbon Brief in March, found that climate policy has actually helped cut bills by reducing demand.

Climate change may have contributed to the suicides of nearly 60,000 Indian farmers and farm workers over the past three decades, according to new research. Illustrating the sensitivity of crop yields in India to spikes in temperature, the study found an increase of just 1C on an average day during the growing season was associated with 67 more suicides. This correlation was found only during growing seasons, when higher temperatures can damage crop yields and deal devastating blows to the one-third of Indian farmers who live below the international poverty line, says Yale Environment 360. Farming has always been considered a high-risk profession in India, and a single damaged harvest can drive some to desperation, says the Associated Press.

Ineos has won a High Court injunction against unlawful protests at its UK shale gas sites in an escalation of the industry’s battle with anti-fracking activists. The ruling will put protesters in contempt of court if they cause any obstruction to Ineos’s shale operations. The petrochemicals group, which is preparing to drill for shale at several sites in the UK, said that it had decided to seek legal protection after an escalation of attempts to frustrate its work, reports the Times. The injunction means that protesters face much tougher penalties than they would under criminal law, and breaching the injunction could result in a two-year jail term. Meanwhile, DeSmog UK reports that a new shale gas company backed by a former Cuadrilla founder has announced plans to explore for natural gas in a West London borough that has banned fracking.

A severe drought in East Africa is triggering a humanitarian crisis, with 19 million in need of help to get food and water just to stay alive, reports Rob Hastings in special report for iNews. “Victims of climate change are starving to death after seasonal rains failed once again in parts of East Africa afflicted by a three-year drought,” he writes. While the area has experienced many droughts before, the length and severity of the dry spell is unprecedented, he adds, resulting in malnutrition and acute watery diarrhoea while also worsening the refugee crisis as it forces people from their land. Dr Chris Funk, an expert on the East African climate with the US Geological Survey, said the situation in wider Somalia was “one of the most concerning rainfall trends in the world” and that average temperatures had also increased significantly – which he said was “highly related to climate change”. In a related comment in iNews written by Funk, he emphasises that he has has no doubt that climate change is worsening the East African drought crisis. “There’s a bit of debate about the cause of the rainfall declines – quite a few people think it may be due to natural decadal variability. But I most definitively think both the increasing temperatures and the decreasing rainfall in the spring are highly related to climate change.”

“There is a distinct possibility that a massive electric car revolution is indeed under way,” writes FT economics commentator, Martin Sandbu, but there are “side effects that must be seen in order to be managed.” “In the little time left before the future arrives,” Sandbu contemplates the potential downsides to the boom in electric vehicles – doubt over whether they can replace the internal combustion engine, and concern over the negative consequences. But “there is no reason to think the progress in electrically powered transportation technology is about to slow down,” he says, adding that “Policy, too, is smiling at electric vehicle adoption.” As for the reliance on cobalt for batteries – overwhelmingly found in the Democratic Republic of Congo – “The answer, at a minimum, must be efforts in the main markets for electric cars to set up transparency and regulations to force accountability throughout the supply chain,” Sandbu writes.

“For most of the past few decades, the quest for more sustainable, less polluting transport, energy and other technologies has been happening largely in the west…Now Asia, long a laggard on these fronts, is starting to catch up,” writes Helen Wong, CEO of the Greater China region for HSBC bank, in the FT. The world’s largest floating solar power plant, which came online in Huainan in eastern China in May, is “just one of many examples that illustrate the remarkable shift towards lower-carbon technologies in China and India.” “It is part of a “new normal” in the global fight against climate change, and highlights that the centre of that fight is rapidly moving east, she says.” Many Asian countries are “producing change at a far faster pace than many observers had dared to hope just a few years ago,” Wong concludes. “Given the threat posed by climate change, that is worth celebrating.”

Changes in air pollution as a result of climate change will likely lead to tens of thousands of premature deaths in future if emissions aren’t curbed, a new study suggests. Using global chemistry–climate models, the researchers estimate that continued emissions will lead to 43,600 ozone-related deaths in 2100 and 215,000 fine particulate matter-related deaths in 2100 (both compared to 2000). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia, the researchers say.