There is a widespread coverage of the latest edition of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) “world energy outlook”, with Agence France-Presse noting that renewables are projected to grow faster than any other energy source across all three scenarios in the report. It notes that, under the “stated policies” scenario, changes in the US mean that it is projected to have 30% less renewables installed in 2035 than in last year’s assessment. The Guardian notes that the agency expects the world to build “more renewable energy projects in the next five years than has been rolled out over the last 40”. It adds that this “increase in renewable energy could meet nearly all the world’s growing appetite for electricity, which is on track to rise by 40% over the next decade”.

The Financial Times says that under the world energy outlook’s “stated policies” scenario – which reflects energy and climate policies that have been proposed – both coal and oil will peak and decline this decade. However, under a “current policies scenario”, where the world continues on its “present trajectory”, oil and gas demand will “continue to rise” for the next 25 years, it states. [Per Carbon Brief’s detailed coverage, the current policies scenario is not the “present trajectory”, because it would require governments around the world to abandon their stated policy intentions.] The newspaper notes that the current policies scenario had not been included in IEA reports since 2020 after “campaigners said it understated the growth of renewable energy sources” – and had been reintroduced following a push from the US government. Bloomberg notes that the “revival” of the current policy scenario marks the “latest revaluation of oil’s long-term prospects by the agency and the wider energy industry”. The Associated Press, Reuters, New York Times, Wall Street Journal and others also cover the report. 

MORE ON ENERGY

• There is continuing coverage of Carbon Brief analysis showing that China’s carbon dioxide emissions “have been flat or falling for 18 months”, including in China’s Global Times.

COP32 will “almost certainly” take place in Ethiopia, after the Brazilian presidency of COP30 and African Group of negotiators endorsed Ethiopia’s bid to host UN climate talks in 2027, Agence France-Presse reports. The newswire notes that the decision, made on the second day of COP30, is not “official” until adopted by all participating nations at the ongoing conference – but that this should be a “formality”. Reuters notes that the African country saw off a rival bid from Nigeria and quotes Ethiopia’s ambassador to Brazil Leulseged Tadese Abebe as saying the nation was “deeply grateful for the trust and confidence” that had been “bestowed” on it. 

The newswire also reports that the location of next year’s climate summit – COP31 – has been “hung up for months” with neither Turkey nor Australia “backing down”. In a comment piece for Climate Home News, Catherine Arbeu, director of the International Climate Politics Hub, notes that leaders of both nations “confidently welcomed the world” to their countries for COP31. However, she argues that “meaningful discussion about how either country would aim to use its presidency of the climate talks to accelerate action on climate change in their own country or globally” has been “conspicuously missing from the pseudo-dramatic showdown” between the two nations. Meanwhile, COP28 director of strategy Tina Latif argues in a Sydney Morning Herald column that it would be “strategic surrender” for Australia not to host COP31.

MORE ON COP

• Climate Home News and Agence France-Presse report on the launch of the loss and damage fund in Belém, noting that countries vulnerable to climate change have six months to submit funding approvals from mid-December.
• Indian delegates told governments that the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism is an “instrument of protectionism”, the Times of India reports.
• Reuters says COP30 has highlighted a “growing need” of countries for resilience to storms, flood and fires.
• China has declined to invest in the Tropical Forests Forever Fund, sources have reportedly told Bloomberg.
• NPR, CNN and Sky News have published COP30 explainers, while Bloomberg explores “who’s who” in negotiating rooms.

Politico reports on “chaotic scenes” at COP30 yesterday after a group Indigenous protestors “appeared to force” their way into the event, in what the outlet claims is the “most serious act of unrest seen in years” at a climate summit. It says security personnel at the main entrance subsequently forced out the demonstrators, who “waved yellow flags protesting oil drilling in the Amazon”. Politico says footage shows security forces “manhandling” some of the protesters. Reuters quotes an Indigenous protestor from the Tupinamba community saying: “we want our lands free from agribusiness, oil exploration, illegal miners and illegal loggers”. A UN spokesperson told Sky News that two security staff were injured during the clashes. The Guardian, BBC News, Associated Press, Bloomberg and Washington Post and others also have the story.

Sky News reports that California governor Gavin Newsom  – a “possible Democratic contender for the White House” – has accused US president Donald Trump of “abdicating responsibility on a critical issue”. There is widespread coverage of Newsom’s comments at COP30, with Agence France-Presse quoting the politician as saying a future Democratic US president would rejoin the Paris Agreement “without hesitation”. In an interview with the Independent, Costa Rican diplomat and Paris Agreement “architect” Christiana Figueres says the US “anti-climate agenda” would “open up the space hugely for China”. [See Carbon Brief’s analysis showing that the US government has not sent a delegation for the first time in COP history.]

Meanwhile, the New York Times covers reports that the Trump administration is considering opening up drilling on the coast of California. The proposal could be announced “as soon as this week”, according to the newspaper’s three anonymous sources. The outlet notes the move would “set up a confrontation” with Newsom, “one of president Trump’s chief political antagonists”. The Wall Street Journal and Los Angeles Times also have the story. 

Elsewhere, Reuters reports that an Alaska Native official who helped oversee the federal agency in charge of Arctic research has left her post. It notes that Elizabeth Qaulluq Cravalho’s departure comes as “Trump has deprioritised climate change-related research in the Arctic”.

China is seeking to “ramp up policy support to attract more private capital to the energy sector”, including “major projects”, such as nuclear power, hydropower, oil and gas pipelines and cross-regional power transmission, Reuters reports, citing Xu Xin, deputy head of the legal affairs department at the National Energy Administration (NEA). The newswire adds that the move aims to “improve sluggish private investment”, adding that for eligible energy projects, private shareholdings could exceed 10%. China Electric Power News also covers the story, quoting Zhou Lisha, a researcher at the China Enterprise Reform and Development Society, who says that the projects listed in the new policy have long been “regarded as national strategic resources dominated by state-owned enterprises” and further opening these sectors to private capital “marks another breakthrough”.

MORE ON CHINA

• China’s “new-energy vehicle” (NEV) sales account for more than half of the country’s total new auto sales in October, hitting “another milestone”, state-run newspaper China Daily reports.
• People’s Daily publishes an article under the byline of He Lifeng, China’s vice premier, calling for the promotion of “new quality productive forces” based on “local conditions”. The article calls for “accelerating the formation of green production and lifestyle patterns”, as well as the construction of a new energy system and steadily achieving carbon peaking.
• Huang Runqian, head of China’s MEE, tells China News that some developed countries are “all talk and no action” on fulfilling their NDC targets, adding that China will continue to accelerate the development of new energy and efforts to reduce emissions. Huang also says that the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will “cause setbacks for global climate governance”, adds the newswire.
• In a comment for China Daily, climate-sceptic commentator Bjorn Lomborg calls for COP30 to focus on “human welfare” and argues that climate change is “one issue among many”. Lomborg also has an opinion article in the Wall Street Journal under the headline: “China’s green energy ‘revolution’ is powered by coal.”
• China Power Enterprise Management publishes an article discussing the impact of China’s “document 136”.

Rebecca Brown, CEO of the Center for International Environmental Law and Lien Vandamme, the organisation’s senior campaigner on human rights and climate change, make the case for reform of the COP process in Climate Home News. They argue that, under the current system, a “systemic lack of compliance and accountability demands a serious, good-faith effort to reform the system”. Citing the failure of the majority of countries to come forward with 1.5C-aligned national climate plans this year, they stress that “reforming the UN climate talks is therefore not procedural housekeeping; it is climate action”. They add: “Without reform, the best science and strongest legal obligations will continue to collide with an outdated process. With reform, we can accelerate the phase out of fossil fuels, deliver real finance at scale and protect human rights.” [For more on COP reform, see the views from experts that Carbon Brief collected earlier this year.]

MORE COMMENT

• Also in Climate Home News, Carbon Market Watch’s Isa Mulder argues that “industry players” and “some conservation groups” at COP30 have been pushing to “effectively lower the integrity and ambition of carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement”.
• Writing in the Backchannel newsletter, China Climate Hub’s Kate Logan and E3G’s Lily Hartzell unpack China’s role in climate finance.
• Energy researcher Anna Broughel argues in Forbes that the US will fail to achieve its ambitions on nuclear power without “allies and a strategic national plan”.
• Reuters carries commentaries on how Trump can delay, “but not stop” global climate action and how the global pipeline of power generation capacity is “taking shape”.
• In the Times, columnist Alice Thompson argues Green leader Zack Polanski has “few serious qualifications” for the job of prime minister. Also in the Times, climate-sceptic columnist Ross Clark argues that “ethical” investing amounts to a “kind of corporate cancel culture”.
• In the climate-sceptic Daily Telegraph, associate editor Ben Marlowe argues the UK government’s net-zero policy has become a “national security threat”.

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Cecilia Keating, with contributions from Henry Zhang and Wanyuan Song. It was edited by Robert McSweeney.

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