President Trump could make his decision on whether the US stays in the Paris Agreement as early as today, CNN reports. Trump “has signalled he’s ready to withdraw or dramatically alter” the landmark deal, says CNN, although “he is still weighing a final decision amid new pressure from foreign governments, business leaders and members of his own party to remain committed.” There are virtually no signs he plans to remain in the agreement as it currently stands, CNN adds. “A divided White House staff, anxious corporate executives, lawmakers and foreign leaders are fiercely competing for President Trump’s ear this week as he nears a decision,” says the New York Times. Trump met with Environmental Protection Agency chief, Scott Pruitt, yesterday, reports The Hill. “This is a subject that the president is spending a great deal of time on, and one that he spoke to the G7 members about during their meetings,” White House press secretary Sean Spicer told reporters. Later in the briefing, Spicer was asked whether Trump believes that human activity causes climate change. “Honestly, I haven’t asked him. I can get back to you,” Spicer responded. Trump’s advisers “have sent wildly different messages to US allies about the president’s willingness to remain in the Paris climate agreement,” says Politico, in an article that breakdowns the choices open to Trump. The Financial Times looks at the political, financial and scientific fallout of a US withdrawal. And Chris Mooney in the Washington Post points out that “the world needs a more ambitious United States – not a country that will abandon Paris entirely, or at minimum, scale back its commitments to that agreement.” Meanwhile, US senator John McCain said he wanted to see America remain in the Paris accord, reports the Guardian. Speaking in Sydney, McCain said “I would like to see us … either accept the agreements as were made by the Obama administration or suggest modifications which would make it palatable for us and acceptable to us to join.” McCain also spoke on the mass bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, calling it one of the “great tragedies of our lives.” Finally, two terms of a Trump presidency “would probably wreck the world’s chances of keeping warming below the international target of 2C,” says Prof Michael Oppenheimer of Princeton University, reports Bloomberg. “The odds of our avoiding the climate-danger zone would fade to zero.”

The UN secretary-general has urged President Donald Trump to keep the US in the Paris climate agreement, warning that withdrawal could undermine US national security and the economy. In a speech at New York University’s Stern School of Business, António Guterres said that the UN had been engaging with the Trump administration in an attempt to persuade officials that it was in America’s interests to stay in the pact. “When you disagree with someone, you try to convince that person. It’s the same with administrations,” he said. “We believe that it will be important for the US not to leave the Paris agreement.” Guterres warned Trump that leaving the Agreement “might be creating a problem to your own internal security,” reports the Guardian. “Today, the economy and social aspects are linked to the environmental aspects, but they are also linked to the security aspects, they are linked to the risks of conflict,” he said. If the US did leave, other countries would step in to fill the void, he added: “If any government doubts the global will and need for this accord, that is reason for all others to unite even stronger and stay the course,” reports the BBC. “The message is simple: the sustainability train has left the station. Get on board or get left behind.” He also urged American states and cities to stay engaged in tackling climate change. Guterres did not mention Trump by name in his speech, notes CNN. The Hill and Climate Home also cover the story. Meanwhile, Reuters reports that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told German Chancellor Angela Merkel that India would stay in the Paris climate accord even if the US pulled out. After the meeting, Modi didn’t reply directly when asked in public whether India would stay with the accord if the US leaves, notes the Associated Press. He said: “We do not have the right to spoil the environment for future generations … that is, morally speaking, a crime on our part.”

Three Mile Island, the power plant that was the site of the most serious US civil nuclear accident, will shut down in 2019 unless it is given additional government support, its owners Exelon have warned. One of Three Mile Island’s two reactors has remained closed since it suffered a partial meltdown in 1979, while the other has continued to operate, and is licensed to keep running until 2034. Exelon is urging Pennsylvania lawmakers to pass legislation allowing nuclear plants to charge more for their electricity, as recognition of the emissions-free, relatively stable power they produce, says The Hill. In a statement, the Exelon president and CEO asked the Pennsylvania state government “to preserve its nuclear energy facilities and the clean, reliable energy and good-paying jobs they provide,” reports Reuters. The nuclear plant is the latest casualty of the boom in shale gas, says Bloomberg: “At least five nuclear power plants have retired in the past five years including Fort Calhoun in Nebraska, which closed in October, as shale gas and rising output of wind and solar power depress prices.” The Associated Press also has the story.

Green Party co-leader Caroline Lucas has accused other parties of a “scandalous” failure to put forward ideas for protecting the environment. Speaking at a rally of supporters on Parliament Square, Ms Lucas said: “The environment has been conspicuous by its absence so far in this election campaign – there is nothing from the other parties.” Ms Lucas took a sign with a giant green question mark to Downing Street and to Labour party headquarters to ask Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn “where’s the environment?,” reports the Independent. “It beggars belief that this election has been almost environment-free when we face an air pollution crisis, a climate denier in the White House, the threat of an extreme Brexit and accelerating climate change,” she said.

The United States is resisting plans to highlight how climate change is disrupting life in the oceans at a UN conference of almost 200 nations next week, says Sweden’s deputy prime minister, who will co-chair the talks. The UN Ocean Conference is due to issue a “Call for Action” to limit damage to marine life from threats the UN says include global warming, over-fishing and pollution such as plastic waste. But US scepticism is affecting preparations, says Isabella Lovin told Reuters: “I think I can safely say that the United States has not been very keen on strong language on climate change.” “We are not prepared to leave that (strong language) out. That’s really fundamental,” Lovin said of the draft documents. “The impacts of climate change are almost immeasurable.”

Adani Enterprises will move ahead with a final financing decision for its Carmichael coal mine project in Australia after an end to negotiations on how to pay government royalties. “The Adani parent company board will consider the final investment decision at the next board meeting.” the company said in a statement. No date has been set for the next meeting of the board though it typically meets once a month. The Adani board last week deferred a final investment decision that had been expected by the end of May because the government had yet to sign off on a royalty regime with the Queensland state government. Meanwhile, a director of the independent board due to provide recommendations regarding a $900m taxpayer loan to Adani publicly declared she was “very supportive” of its “vital” coal project, a day after she was accused of allowing a perceived conflict of interest, reports the Guardian.

Convincing President Trump to stay in the Paris Agreement should be top priority for Theresa May, says former Energy and Climate Change Secretary Edward Davey in an opinion article for BusinessGreen. The credibility of the Paris deal “could be hit badly” with “UK leadership on climate now absent from the top European table, and with Trump on the brink of withdrawing the US,” warns Davey. “Theresa May should be doing everything in her power to influence Trump and avoid a US withdraw from the Agreement. Yet she isn’t,” he says. “But the situation is not hopeless,” Davey adds. “Trump has been known to change his mind suddenly and he could do so again. So it’s still not too late to influence him. For the sake of Britain’s own future, and the future of billions of people around the world, Theresa May should recognise her responsibility and do exactly that.”

“President Trump has an opportunity to relieve our nation of the unfair and economically devastating requirements of the Paris Agreement,” writes US Republican senator Ted Cruz for CNN. Trump pledged to rip up the Agreement during his campaign, says Cruz, “and as soon as possible, President Trump should act on – and keep – his campaign promise.” “The agreement’s proponents market [the Agreement] as a panacea for addressing the impacts of climate change, but at its core, it is about increasing government control – over the economy, the energy sector and nearly every aspect of our daily lives.” “Efforts to unwind some of the deal’s more onerous regulations are welcomed, but that is not enough,” Cruz argues. “Unless the US completely withdraws, the Paris Agreement will continue to cause sustained harm to our security and economy.”

“The failure of the two main parties to talk about the environment has been one of many disappointing features of the campaign,” says an Independent editorial, and Green party co-leader Caroline Lucas is “absolutely right” to draw attention to it. “Ms Lucas makes the point that climate change is hardly mentioned in the other parties’ manifestos, and that the issue has not come up in any of the big TV set-piece events so far.” The Conservative party “has retreated from David Cameron’s green respray,” says the Indy, and “the Labour Party has not stepped into the gap with a convincing green programme of its own.” With Trump on the verge of pulling out of the Paris climate deal, “The big green question of this election, then, might be whether Theresa May has any influence on the President whom she rushed to see within days of his inauguration,” the article says. “Sadly, the realistic answer is probably no.”

“One of the most potentially deadly effects has been far less discussed [on the impacts of climate change]: an increase in the spread of dangerous epidemics and the risk of a global pandemic,” says Brian Deese, former senior adviser to President Barack Obama on climate change and energy policy, and Ronald A. Klain, White House Ebola response coordinator. In an opinion piece for the Washington Post, Deese and Klain warn that: “If we fail to integrate planning for the impact of climate change with planning for the prevention and management of pandemic disease, the consequences will be deadly.” “The only way to keep our country safe is to better understand the science behind climate change and disease, better prepare our communities and public-health officials to respond, and better arm other countries to anticipate the spread of these threats before they spill over national borders,” they write. “Denying this reality will have deadly consequences.”

“Like perhaps no other single issue, Paris has divided Trump’s circle of advisers,” writes David Roberts for Vox, “which side he comes down on will reveal a great deal about who is currently in his favour.” But the only person who stands to gain from leaving the deal is White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon, says Roberts. “If the US leaves Paris, it will be because [Bannon] played Trump for a fool.” Roberts goes on to explain how “pulling out of Paris will not enable Trump or his administration to do anything they couldn’t otherwise do.” In fact, “all talk of Paris being a ‘bad deal’ for the US, or hurting US trade, or affecting the US coal industry in any way, is nonsense.” “Trump could do serious, lasting damage — not only to the desperate global attempt to rally and prevent the worst of climate change, but to his own reputation, influence, and ultimate success.,” warns Roberts. “There’s just no reason to do it.”

As the warming Arctic gives rise to thawing permafrost, vast amounts of nitrogen oxide – a greenhouse gas 300 times more powerful than CO2 – could start to decompose and be released to the atmosphere, warns a new study. Though the topic had received little attention so far, the Arctic may become a source of N2O with emissions of the gas potentially covering almost one-fourth of the entire Arctic surface, say the authors.

A new study finds that natural cycles of variability in the Pacific and Atlantic intensified the warming over Arctic land in the early 20th century, a period of weak external forcing but fast warming that has posed a long-standing mystery to scientists. The simultaneous warming of both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans drastically alters atmospheric circulations over the Northern Hemisphere that transport warm air into the Arctic, the paper notes.

Sea ice extent in parts of the Arctic Ocean could be useful in predicting snowfall variability, potentially improving seasonal snowfall forecasts across the United States, according to new research. When the authors computed snowfall at 440 stations from 1979 to 2009 and compared them with sea ice extent over the same period, they found that ice in the Kara Sea was a consistent predictor of snowfall in the Autumn, while total sea ice extent explained snowfall variability more skilfully in the spring.