US president Donald Trump has given Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping or face the destruction of its energy infrastructure, reports the Guardian. Posting on his Truth Social platform on Saturday, Trump said the US would “hit and obliterate” Iranian power plants if Tehran did not fully reopen the strait within 48 hours, the newspaper says, which would be 23:44 GMT today, according to the time of the post. The ultimatum came just a day after Trump said he was considering “winding down” military operations after three weeks of war, the article notes. In response, Iran’s military operational command said that “all energy, information technology and desalination infrastructure belonging to the US and the regime in the region will be targeted” if Iran’s energy infrastructure is attacked, reports Bloomberg. There is widespread coverage of Trump’s comments, including in the Associated Press, Al Jazeera, Reuters, Axios, Politico and Times.

A second Bloomberg article says that the effective closure of the strait is “piling pressure on the US administration and on major importers of oil, gas and fuels”. A third article reports on claims that Iran’s ability to threaten marine traffic in the strait has been “degraded” after the US attacked a bunker housing weapons along the Iranian coastline earlier this week. Reuters says that “Iran is ready to let Japanese-related vessels pass through the strait” after talks between the two countries. However, Bloomberg reports that “Iranian officials have become reluctant to even discuss reopening” the strait while the country is under attack. Politico reports on comments from US oil executives that the strait “has to reopen”, or it is the “apocalypse for the oil and gas industry”. The New York Times, Washington Post, Bloomberg and Politico all report that the US has temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil that is currently at sea, authorising it to be sold to most countries.

MORE ON IRAN WAR

• Reuters reports that “Iraq has declared force majeure on all oilfields developed by foreign oil companies…halting most of the country’s crude exports”.
• Shell is facing a hit of up to $750m (£560m) after an Iranian missile strike on its “crown jewel” gas plant in Qatar, says the Daily Telegraph.
• The “diverging language” between Trump and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Israel’s decision to attack a critical Iranian gas field raises “questions about whether they’re in sync” on the war, says the Associated Press.
• The conflict led to 5m tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in its first 14 days, according to analysis covered by the Guardian.

Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), has warned that the Iran war is “the greatest global energy security threat in history”, reports the Financial Times. In an interview, Birol says that politicians and markets are still underestimating the scale of the crisis, which is now larger than the twin shocks of the 1970s that triggered recessions and fuel rationing around the world, says the newspaper. Even if the conflict ended and the strait reopened, Birol says “it will be six months” for some oil and gasfields to become operational again – and “much longer” for others, the article notes. The IEA says more than 40 energy assets in the Middle East have been “severely or very severely” damaged, reports Bloomberg. The IEA has issued recommendations for countries to cut oil demand by working from home more, flying less and driving more slowly, according to the Financial Times. The IEA said widespread adoption of its recommendations would “amplify their global impact and help cushion the shock”, notes the article.

The Financial Times also reports that countries are “facing a cliff-edge as the flow of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf comes to an abrupt end in the next 10 days, when a handful of final tankers from the region reach their destinations”. It adds: “Countries reliant on imports to power their economies will have to pay sky-high prices to compete for LNG supplies from the US and elsewhere, switch to other fuels or force households and businesses to use less.” Global LNG exports have sunk to a six-month low, says Bloomberg. The EU has urged member states to lower gas storage filling targets and to start refilling gas stores early in a bid to reduce demand, says Politico. The Los Angeles Times says that the lack of LNG means many Asian countries face a “grim choice” between blackouts or reverting to coal. Spain’s government has approved a €5bn (£4.3bn) aid package to ease the economic effects of the Iran war, including tax reductions on energy, reports Bloomberg.

The Times reports that oil prices could climb as high as $150 per barrel, with one investment bank warning that the Iran conflict risks becoming an “escalatory doom loop” that is likely to inflict more losses on financial markets. The Guardian’s “Sunday read” explores how a “prolonged Iran war could shock the global economy”. Speaking this morning, Fatih Birol said the IEA is consulting with ‌governments in Asia and Europe on the release of more stockpiled oil “if necessary”, reports Reuters. The Financial Times reports that Canadian oil producers stand to receive a windfall of up to C$90bn ($65.6bn) from the war. Bloomberg says the rising price of diesel is the “real concern” for the economy as it “powers nearly every industry, including transportation, construction and agriculture”. 

MORE ON ENERGY CRISIS

• Speaking to various experts, the Guardian reports on how the war “makes the west’s electric-vehicle retreat look even more shortsighted”. 
• Inside Climate News says that while interest in renewables and EVs is increasing in the US as oil prices rise, “misinformation may be holding consumers back”.
• China’s top-three battery manufacturers “have gained more than $70bn in market capitalisation since the US and Israel attacked Iran”, reports the Financial Times.
• Latin American governments are launching a “sweeping realignment of energy and fiscal policies”, warning that the surge in oil prices from the Iran war threatens regional stability, says Bloomberg.

The UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that the amount of heat trapped by the Earth reached record levels in 2025, says Agence France-Presse. In its annual State of the Global Climate report, the WMO includes the planet’s energy imbalance for the first time, the newswire explains, adding that “more than 91% of the excess heat is stored in the ocean”. Among its other findings, the report confirms that the 11 hottest years ever recorded were all between 2015 and 2025, the article notes. The newswire quotes UN secretary general Antonio Guterres saying: “The global climate is in a state of emergency. Planet Earth is being pushed beyond its limits. Every key climate indicator is flashing red.” Reuters lists some of the other key conclusions of the report, which is also covered by, among others, the Financial Times, Guardian, BBC News, Euractiv and New York Times.

A new report has found that a combination of factors triggered the unprecedented blackout that left Spain and Portugal without electricity for several hours last April, says BBC News. The report lays out the findings of an investigation by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (Entso-e) into the outage that left tens of millions without electricity, the outlet explains. The report finds no single cause, says Euractiv, but points to the “interplay of no fewer than 17 different factors”, which “paints a picture of an ill-managed transmission system”. Despite the blackout triggering a backlash against renewables, Damian Cortinas, chair of the board of Entso-e, said “the issue is not about renewables”, but about improving the grid’s ability to manage “fast voltage variations” that can destabilise the system, reports the Financial Times. The newspaper adds that the report calls for the “whole of Europe” to modernise parts of its power system to avoid similar blackouts. Reuters and Euronews also have the story. [For more, see Carbon Brief’s reporting at the time.]

Elsewhere, Cuba’s power grid collapsed again on Saturday leaving the country without electricity for a third time in March, reports the Associated Press, as the government “battles with a decaying infrastructure and a US-imposed oil blockade”. There is further coverage in the Financial Times, Reuters, Bloomberg, CNN, BBC News, Al Jazeera and Agence France-Presse.

Energy firm EDF has warned that an energy price shock from the Iran war is likely to push UK households deeper into debt and add to financial pressures on suppliers, reports the Financial Times. It continues: “EDF, which supplies about 2.7m households, said one in eight of its customers was already more than 45 days overdue on their energy bills even before a current surge in wholesale prices, driven by the conflict, feeds through.” The Times looks at how the war is “driving up UK petrol, energy and mortgage costs”. Reuters reports that prime minister Keir Starmer is set to chair an emergency meeting on the economic fallout from the war in Iran today. The Daily Telegraph says that ministers will “hammer out a strategy to prevent panic buying at forecourts amid concern that motorists could bleed pumps dry despite ample supplies”. 

Meanwhile, the UK government’s “cost of living champion”, Lord Walker of Broxton, has urged ministers to explore a temporary cap on the profits of energy and petrol companies to prevent them from cashing in excessively on the war, reports the Guardian, Times, Financial Times and Bloomberg. Chris O’Shea, the chief executive of Centrica, which owns British Gas, has called on the government to increase drilling in the North Sea to bring down energy prices, reports the Daily Telegraph. O’Shea also tells BBC News that rising household energy bills will be “inescapable” if oil prices stay high. Industry bodies have warned that UK factories face production cuts within weeks because of surging gas prices, reports the Daily Telegraph. 

MORE ON UK

• Councillors will meet next month to decide on a controversial application to drill for gas near the North York Moors National Park, reports BBC News.
• Australian investment manager Macquarie and a Chinese sovereign wealth fund are exploring the sale of a £1bn stake in the UK’s largest gas network, says the Financial Times.
• The Guardian: “Reform UK success in local elections could endanger national climate targets, report says.”
• The Daily Telegraph and Daily Mail both report that Labour will “tear up” planning rules to allow 100ft wind turbines near businesses, schools and farms. The Daily Telegraph also reports that the military is “preparing to spend £95m to upgrade” the UK radar network to “stop interference from offshore windfarms”.
• The Times says that “carbon taxes threaten to kill off” the UK’s last oil refineries.
• The climate-sceptic Daily Mail amplifies claims by a right-wing lobby group that the attendance of energy secretary Ed Miliband “and his entourage” at COP30 in Brazil last year cost £800,000.

China has issued an action plan to “achieve breakthroughs in key materials and components for energy-saving equipment” from 2026 to 2028, reports state news agency Xinhua, citing a notice issued by departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). China aims to reach “internationally leading levels” in the efficiency of equipment such as motors and water electrolysis hydrogen production, according to another Xinhua article. The plan also calls for improving “transformer energy efficiency and system compatibility” in new energy sectors, according to industry news outlet BJX News. Wang Peng at the MIIT said that, while the energy efficiency of “individual energy-saving equipment” in China is already “relatively high”, the efficiency of most energy-using systems remains low, reports party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily. The newspaper also says that adopting high-efficiency motor upgrades could reduce “auxiliary power consumption” of coal-fired units by about 20%. China Energy Net publishes the full text of the document.

MORE ON CHINA

• China’s coalbed methane output will reach 40-50bn cubic metres by 2035, becoming the “most important driver” of gas development, reports Xinhua.
• China’s environmental code sets “forward-looking” principles for “regulatory blank spots like climate change”, says Caixin.
• China’s 15th five-year plan injects “positive energy into global climate governance”, according to a He Yin article by People’s Daily. China’s coal peak and clean energy substitution will shape global decarbonisation, says the Paper.
• China’s oil output will plateau just below last year’s record 4.3m barrels per day for another decade, reports Reuters, citing experts.
• Researcher Naser al-Tamimi writes a comment article in China Daily under the headline: “Solar power can ease load on Hormuz.”
• Industry experts and company executives jointly call for China’s wind power industry to resist “disorderly price wars”, according to CEPN.

The Iran war is “metastasising into a global economic calamity”, argues a Financial Times editorial, with the prospects of oil at $150 a barrel that “would raise the probability of a worldwide recession”. It continues: “The longer the conflict goes on, the worse the shortages, price spikes and supply chain disruption will be…Even if the war miraculously ends soon, there will be ongoing questions over the security of the waterway.” With the Iranian regime knowing that the region “can be weaponised any time that tensions with the US and Israel return”, the newspaper says, “trade, transport and investment in the Gulf won’t be the same again”. Also in the Financial Times, the newspaper’s “Markets Insight” column looks at how the “oil shock might spread”. Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas says that taking control of Kharg Island – the critical Iranian oil terminal – would not “solve Trump’s oil problem”. In the Sunday Times, Robert Colvile writes in his weekly political column on the risk of Trump restricting fuel exports from the US. 

MORE IRAN COMMENT

• The energy crises caused by the war “must accelerate the fight against climate change”, says an editorial in Le Monde.
• Bloomberg columnist David Fickling looks at how “Asia’s industrial revolution is switching off gas”.
• The Observer‘s climate editor Jeevan Vasagar: “Why oil and gas are Iran’s most lethal weapons.”

Writing in the Times, Dominic O’Connell – business presenter on Times Radio – looks into the UK’s relative lack of fossil gas storage. Earlier decisions not to invest in securing more storage look “shortsighted in the current crisis, but [are] understandable in the context of the time”, says O’Connell: “A decade ago energy strategists were forecasting the era of ‘infinite gas’ with a flood of new LNG coming on stream.” However, he continues, “that conviction has looked less sound since, particularly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent gas prices soaring”. O’Connell discusses the options for the Rough storage site, owned by Centrica. He argues in favour of state backing for Centrica’s £2bn plan to refurbish the site, noting: “It shouldn’t be too hard to work out a deal that either gives the company a guaranteed return, rather in the way the new nuclear power station at Sizewell is being financed.”

Elsewhere, there is a continuing chorus of right-leaning outlets and writers arguing in favour of new drilling in the North Sea. In the Sunday Telegraph, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch claims drilling is “the answer to the energy crisis”. On the next page in the print edition, the Telegraph’s industry editor Matt Oliver and energy editor Jonathan Leake opine that “[Ed] Miliband’s North Sea crackdown seems more senseless than ever”. In the Daily Telegraph, “independent energy consultant” Kathryn Porter claims that further drilling would “lower bills”. [Carbon Brief analysis shows that the continued expansion of renewables and low-carbon technologies offers far greater protection against volatile gas imports than new domestic drilling.] There are also continued personal attacks on Miliband, including by climate-sceptic commentator Andrew Neil in the Mail on Sunday, a Sun editorial and Daily Telegraph associate editor Camilla Tominey. 

MORE UK COMMENT

• Financial Times deputy opinion editor Miranda Green unpacks why net-zero is a “not a zero-sum game”.
• A Guardian editorial says the “steep reductions” on development aid from the UK government – including for climate-related projects – are a “grave error”.
• A Daily Telegraph editorial says that oil and gas price shocks are “threatening to precipitate the financial crisis here in Britain that so many economists had spent the past few years warning against”.
• Labour MP Henry Tufnell writes in the Sun that “Britain must scrap woke ideology and embrace energy sovereignty”.
• In the Sunday Times, Stephen King – HSBC’s senior economic adviser – writes that “subsidising energy bills would be a ruinous waste of time”.

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Robert McSweeney, with contributions from Henry Zhang and Anika Patel. It was edited by Leo Hickman.