Daily Briefing: COP31 to start | Rosebank push | ‘Simply staggering’ El Niño

06.11.26

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News

UN climate talks start in the year of disasters, energy price shocks and fast rising temperatures

Seth Borenstein, The Associated Press

The COP31 climate summit is set to kick off in Antalya, Turkey, on Monday amid a backdrop of “accelerating” global warming, continued fossil-fuel reliance and war, says the Associated Press. It reports: “A key issue this year is the implementation of promises to transition away from fossil fuels. Co-host Turkey is also pushing a separate plan that would help do that by shifting more global energy use – including transportation – to electricity generated from solar and wind power. Negotiators also will hash out how to provide promised funds to poor countries to switch to renewables, adapt to a warmer world and recover from climate-induced damage.”

International Energy Agency chief Dr Fatih Birol tells the Financial Times that he expects to see a “climate action comeback” at COP31. According to the FT, he said: “In the last two to three years, climate change was sliding down the international agenda, despite the increasing number of extreme weather events…now I am seeing that we are going to see a rebound…I have rarely seen the energy security policy objectives and the climate objectives so closely aligned.”

Bloomberg speaks to Australian climate minister Chris Bowen, who is president of the talks, after Turkey and Australia reached a deal to co-host COP31 at the last round of talks in Brazil. The co-hosts have a “main goal” of asking countries to sign up to a pledge to “increase the global share of final energy demand coming from electricity to 35% by 2035, from about 20% today”, says Bloomberg. It quotes Bowen as saying: “I would like to see a strong outcome on electrification in our presidency-led decision.” The Associated Press interviews Turkish energy minister Alparslan Bayraktar about new plans for the country to “wean itself off coal”, released ahead of the summit.

Politico speaks to sources close to UK prime minister Andy Burnham about his likely priorities at COP, saying: “Interviews with more than a dozen advisers, government officials, pollsters and MPs around Burnham reveal a PM convinced of the dangers posed to Britain and the world by runaway global warming – yet whose first instinct, sometimes to the frustration of climate advocates, is to prioritise cost of living and energy security worries at home.”

UK cabinet in push to approve drilling at Rosebank oil field

Alex Wickham, Jess Shankleman, and Chloe Chaplain, Bloomberg

Bloomberg reports that “UK cabinet ministers are lobbying prime minister Andy Burnham and energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh to approve drilling at the Rosebank oil and gas field…and privately believe the decision is heading in their favour”. It continues: “A majority of the cabinet supports the project, as do some senior Burnham advisers, according to two government officials who spoke on condition of anonymity about behind-closed-doors discussions. The decision is subject to an approval process led by Fahnbulleh that is due to report back by the end of the year.” Both the Times and the Daily Telegraph report on critical remarks from two backbench Labour MPs after the UK government reaffirmed its 2024 manifesto pledge to end new oil and gas licences in its recently introduced energy independence bill.

MORE ON UK

The Times reports that “ministers are planning to digitally track drivers’ mileage for a new pay-per-mile road tax for electric and hybrid cars”.
Electric vehicles have fuelled growth in new car registrations for the 11th month in a row and now account for 32% of the market, according to trade data covered by the Times.
The Daily Telegraph reports that National Grid told investors that it experienced “additional localised outages” during the summer heatwaves, something the newspaper breathlessly labels as “blackouts”.
BBC News: “Could the earliest weakening of the polar vortex on record bring UK snow?”
The Daily Telegraph: “Net-zero airline fuel quotas to be eased.”
The Daily Telegraph: “National Trust moves to cut ties with Barclays in climate push.”

Renewable energy groups boosted by ‘clarity’ of US election results

Rachel Millard, The Financial Times

The US midterm election results have “boosted the market fortunes of renewable energy groups previously stymied by the Trump administration”, says the FT. It says that shares in renewable groups, including the world’s largest offshore wind developer, Ørsted, “surged” after the Democrats gained control of Congress, “raising expectations of a more supportive political backdrop for the industry”. Inside Climate News reports on how the results could “transform climate and energy policy”.

Heatwaves linked to nearly 20,000 deaths in China in 2025

Wang Shuo, Caixin

In ongoing coverage of a study published by the Lancet Public Health, financial news outlet Caixin reports that the research shows heatwaves were linked to “nearly 20,000 deaths” in China in 2025. China’s water ministry says that flash flood “disasters” this year have become “more pronounced”, which is linked to “intensifying global warming”, says Shanghai-based outlet the Paper. The official adds that flash flood-related deaths, disappearances and incidents “fell to their lowest level” since records began in 2000. As COP31 approaches, the “super El Niño” this year is “raising further concerns” over global climate risks, notes an opinion article published by state broadcaster CGTN. Jiang Chao, the article’s author and associate professor at Beijing Forestry University, says “bridging the gap” between probabilistic climate predictions and disaster-prevention actions is “a core agenda item” for the global goal on adaptation at COP31 and “a central priority” for China’s domestic climate goals.

MORE ON CHINA

“Humanity, more than ever before, needs action-oriented implementation of the Paris Agreement”, says a Xinhua commentary bylined with the outlet’s name.
COP31 needs to turn existing consensus into “concrete policies” and “financial arrangements”, says Xu Huaqing, former Chinese climate official, according to the Paper.
The NDRC issued a resource conservation strategy that says “energy conservation must be prioritised” and that China must “continuously improve energy efficiency”, reports International Energy Net.
Climate Home News says that clean power “shields China from oil shock more than any other country” and bolsters its position ahead of COP31.
China and Canada “agreed” to further strengthen cooperation in conventional and renewable energy in a readout of their first bilateral ministerial dialogue on energy, reports China Power News Network.
China-Africa “renewable energy cooperation projects” amounted to 17 gigawatts over 2023-26, reports Xinhua. China could “institutionalise [climate] leadership” by adopting debt pauses for developing countries after climate disasters, argues Boston University’s Kevin Gallagher in the China-Global South Project.

Comment

COP31 will expose the conflicts and contradictions of the world’s fossil fuel reliance

Fiona Harvey, The Guardian

Guardian environment editor Fiona Harvey writes on her expectations for COP31. She says: “At this year’s COP31 UN climate summit in Antalya, coal exporter Australia and coal consumer Turkey will be trying to shift the focus away from dirty fossil fuels and towards clean electricity, with a target on the table to meet 35% of final energy demand from electricity by 2035. Will they succeed? The geopolitical outlook for COP31 is worse than for almost any recent ‘conference of the parties’ under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Conflicts in Ukraine, Iran and Gaza are destabilising global alliances, an unpredictable White House is sowing economic uncertainty and AI is threatening to unleash digitised chaos.” However, she continues, the “outlook for COP31 is not all bleak”, noting that recent liberal wins in the US midterm elections and the Brazilian presidential election could buoy climate progress.

MORE COMMENT

For the Backchannel substack, Leo Roberts from the E3G thinktank says that the UK “needs a fossil-fuel transition roadmap”.
For his Climate Brink substack, scientist Prof Andrew Dessler says the “PR campaign” against extreme weather attribution is an “attack on scientists”.
Heated editor Emily Atkin says: “It’s time to tax big oil’s disgusting war profits.”
CNN: “Three charts that prove clean energy progress is really happening.”
Investigative journalist Hilary Beaumont in the Guardian: “How Democrats used the midterms to turn affordability concerns into ‘green populism’.”

Research

Responding to a 2025 study, a “matters arising” paper pushes back on the suggestion that elevated CO2 has boosted growth of big trees in the Amazon, outweighing climate-driven mortality | Nature Plants
Climate model simulations of fire-weather extremes over the Iberian peninsula suggest these conditions will “increasingly emerge in late spring and persist into early autumn” | Weather and Climate Extremes
In a perspective paper, a group of scientists set out the case for “operationalising ocean climate monitoring” in order to provide “continuous, traceable and timely information for climate-risk assessment” | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences