Daily Briefing: EU’s IPCC ‘push’ | Trump’s Russian diesel ‘deal’ | UK ‘to slash’ heat-pump support

12.10.26

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News

EU leads fight against fossil-fuel nations’ push to delay climate science reports

Attracta Mooney, The Financial Times

A “high ambition coalition” of the EU and ministers from “more than 30 countries” has “joined forces in a co-ordinated effort to thwart a push…to delay key scientific reports on the warming of the planet”, reports the Financial Times. It says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is meeting this week to “resolve a three-year-long deadlock over the next set of reports”. It says: “Countries including Saudi Arabia, India and China have pushed for the postponement of some of the reports until 2029, meaning key information on climate change would not be available for the UN COP summit in 2028, when a critical assessment of each nation’s efforts to deal with climate change is due.” Modern Diplomacy says this week’s meeting in Ethiopia is seen as the “last opportunity” to agree a pre-2028 timeline. Reuters says the dispute “reflects deep rifts between wealthy industrialised nations, major emerging economies and poorer nations”. [See Carbon Brief’s article from April on the previous meeting’s “deadlock”, plus a separate Q&A on “why the standoff between nations over the next IPCC reports matters”.]

Hurricane Isaias kills at least two and disrupts US oil and gas production

Emiliya Mychasuk and Steven Bernard, The Financial Times

At least two people have died, more than 800,000 are without power and oil and gas production has been disrupted after Hurricane Isaias made landfall in Florida, reports the Financial Times. It adds: “Workers were evacuated from more than 100 oil and gas platforms and over half of all offshore production in the Gulf was paused ahead of the storm’s arrival…Experts expect there to be little immediate effect on already high oil prices, unless the hurricane power outages affect oil refineries.” The Associated Press reports on two further deaths and the “threat of flash floods and tornadoes across the south-east”. PBS News says the gulf coast’s “warming waters” were “charged by climate change”. Scientific American looks at how the hurricane “got so dangerously strong so fast”.

MORE ON EXTREME WEATHER

Agence France-Presse: “Brazil prosecutors sue Shell for $108m over deadly 2024 floods.”
The Associated Press: “Villages evacuated as flash flood from Budhi Gandaki River hits northern Nepal.”
BBC News: “Nepal is prone to disasters…[But] experts say climate change, which is making glaciers melt faster, is likely raising the risk.”
The Associated Press: “Vietnam mobilises troops after heavy rains trigger flash floods and raise risks of landslides.”
Reuters: “Malaysia closes schools in several states [and] territories due to haze [from forest fires in Indonesia.”

EU says it agrees with China to halve hybrid vehicle exports to EU

Joe Cash and Inti Landauro, Reuters

EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič said on Friday that the bloc had reached a deal with China to “halve Chinese exports of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles to the EU, improve EU access to China’s market and ⁠ease Chinese licencing of rare earth exports”, reports Reuters. The Financial Times reports: “Šefčovič said China had agreed to restrain its hybrid car exports to the EU to a level half or less than that currently projected by the EU over the next four years, a commitment he said would prevent ‘several million’ being shipped. However, that would still allow actual volumes to increase over the period.” The Financial Times has further coverage on how the EU would implement the deal, if approved by member states, adding that the agreement “averted a full-scale trade conflict”.

The EU will cap Chinese hybrid imports at “350,000 cars per year”, rising by 6% annually, reports Bloomberg. Another Bloomberg article says: “China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Friday the understanding includes a ‘green channel’ mechanism to facilitate EU export licenses for rare earths and permanent magnets.” The Guardian and Politico also have the story. The Financial Times says: “Volkswagen’s chief executive has called for greater co-operation between France and Germany to strengthen European competitiveness, saying it was not too late to respond to the threat posed by Chinese competitors.”

MORE ON EU

Reuters: “EU eyes COP31 climate deal to accelerate CO2 cuts, document shows.”
Euronews: “Tens of thousands urge EU for climate action at Brussels demonstration.”
The Financial Times: “EU to explore windfall tax on energy companies.”
The EU has selected 46 strategic raw material projects for faster access to funding as the bloc seeks to “reduce reliance on China”, reports Reuters.
Politico: “EU’s new list of critical-mineral projects focuses on clean-energy metals.”
Politico says a “split” in the European Parliament over reforms to the EU emissions trading system “opens way for conservative deal with far right”.

Trump says Russia to supply diesel to US and global markets

Bo Erickson, Timothy Gardner and Jarrett Renshaw, Reuters

US president Donald Trump said on Friday that Russia had agreed to supply diesel to global markets “in an effort to lower fuel prices”, reports Reuters. It continues: “[Trump said his administration] temporarily lifted US sanctions on Russian fuel that were designed to deprive Moscow of revenues for its ‌war on Ukraine.” The newswire adds: “Analysts said the agreement was unlikely to lead ‌to sustained lower ⁠fuel prices.” It quotes one saying: “I cannot overstate how much of a nothing-burger this is.” The Financial Times said the Kremlin “confirmed the deal in a statement posted to Telegram”. BBC News says Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy “calls it a gift to Putin”. The Times reports Zelenskyy saying a supposed energy truce between his country and Russia, also announced by Trump, is “news to me”. Sky News: “Zelenskyy accuses Putin of breaking Trump’s ‘energy ceasefire’.” The Financial Times says oil prices were “volatile in early trading” in light of the “ceasefire”.

MORE ON OIL AND GAS

The Financial Times: “US threatens to block arms for Ukraine over attacks on Russian refineries.”
CNBC: “Trump’s diesel agreement with Putin accused of contradicting Russia sanctions law.”
The Financial Times: “Donald Trump pressures Mexico for energy deals in crunch trade talks.”
The Financial Times: “Iran attacks tankers beyond strait of Hormuz.”
Reuters columnist Ron Bousso: “Middle East LNG industry remains hostage of Iran war.”

UK: Ministers preparing to slash heat-pump subsidies to fund defence spending

Kiran Stacey, The Guardian

A frontpage story in the Guardian, citing “sources” says that “hundreds of millions of pounds” will be cut from the £2.7bn budget for heat-pump subsidies. It says the “boiler upgrade scheme…will not be abolished”, but will be cut as energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh looks for “more than £2bn in savings…to help pay for defence investment”. The newspaper quotes Madeleine Gabriel, a director at the charity Nesta, saying: “Bills are soaring again because of high gas prices. Our reliance on gas is the reason we are in an energy crisis, so cutting funding for heat pumps makes no sense.” The Guardian adds that spending may also be cut for hydrogen and carbon capture and storage.

The Financial Times reports that Fahnbulleh is “fighting to persuade chancellor John Healey to cut renewable levies from bills [at the upcoming budget] to try to bring down costs for all households, not just the most vulnerable, ahead of a new year price rise”. The Sunday Times looks ahead to the budget and says that support for energy bills “will largely be targeted” rather than universal. It adds that Healey has “hinted” at a delay to a rise in fuel duty. A budget preview from BBC News says: “The US-Israel war against Iran and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have together helped drive up energy prices around the world.” The Guardian says figures showing “van drivers face extra £2.5bn in diesel costs this year” are “fuelling calls for the government to scrap its planned fuel duty rise”.

MORE ON UK ENERGY

BusinessGreen: “UK and EU close in on ETS deal to link carbon markets.”
The Times reports on delays to the completion of the Dogger Bank windfarm, which it says has a contract to deliver power at one-third of current wholesale prices.
The Independent runs a feature under the headline “blackout Britain”, which is heavy on adjectives such as “ominous” and light on evidence that the UK actually faces blackouts.
BusinessGreen says the 500 megawatt Green Hill solar project has secured approval. BBC News says two Conservative MPs have criticised the scheme.
The Daily Telegraph and the Daily Express report on Conservative calls for the approval of the Jackdaw and Rosebank offshore gas and oil projects.

UK: Labour risks losing working class over net-zero, says business secretary

Constance Kampfner, The Times

In an interview with the Times, business secretary Jonathan Reynolds “signalled he intended to…relax…the zero emission vehicle mandate” for electric car sales. It quotes him saying: “The destination is clear; it’s electric…How you get there in a way that guarantees the future of production, industry and jobs in the UK, I think that’s what matters.” The newspaper quotes him continuing: “Fundamental to success on climate is retaining the support of the British public, particularly working-class people. If people felt that we were meeting targets by simply importing products rather than making them ourselves, that would undermine the whole premise of climate [change action].”

The Daily Telegraph and the Times report on calls for weaker EV targets from the heads of Renault UK and Nissan, respectively. The Independent says Renault wants the UK to put tariffs on Chinese imports. The Daily Telegraph reports: “China electric car tariffs would drive up prices, [Chinese-owned] MG warns.” The Sunday Times says: “Almost one in four new cars sold in the UK last month was Chinese.”

MORE ON UK

BBC News: “UK launches flood taskforce to prepare for extreme winter weather.” BBC News also reports warnings of “heightened” flood risk in Wales this winter.
The Press Association says that drought has been declared in Yorkshire, adding that the “country is facing increasingly extreme weather such as heatwaves, droughts and intense rainfall because of climate change”.
The Times: “Summer drought ‘may leave 280,000 without water this winter’.”
The Guardian: “Retrofit schools and consider moving exams to beat extreme heat, says teaching union leader.”
The Financial Times: “Heathrow needs Burnham green light for runway by end of year, warns boss.” The Sunday Times frontpage: “Burnham ‘unconvinced’”.

Super El Nino event formed in September, China’s National Climate Centre says

CGTN

China’s National Climate Centre (NCC) said a super El Niño event has formed in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific in September, reports state broadcaster CGTN. Zhao Junhu, chief forecaster at the NCC, said that sea-surface temperatures had met the threshold for a super El Niño event, according to state news agency Xinhua. In an interview with the Shanghai-based news outlet the Paper, Chao Qingchen, director of the NCC, said that the event will heighten the risk of “severe flooding” in the Yangtze River basin in 2027. Chao also said China’s approach to flood control is undergoing a “fundamental shift”, as extreme daily precipitation events have occurred 31% more often on average. She added that “rapid shifts between drought and flooding” have also become more frequent, making flood control in northern China a “constant test”. She also said China plays an “increasingly proactive and pragmatic” role in global climate governance.

MORE ON CHINA

Global Times publishes an editorial under the headline: “‘Overcapacity’ must not become a new pretext for trade protectionism.”
Bloomberg quotes the NEA’s Ren Yuzhi, saying China had not previously anticipated” its current pace of electrification, adding that forecasting future electricity demand is a “key challenge”.
The Chinese government has issued “opinions” on developing “new quality productive forces”, which includes calls to build a “green and low-carbon” economic system, according to Xinhua.
China will resume refined fuel exports in October after a “pause” during the holiday period, reports Reuters.

Comment

Trump’s thirst for diesel and votes gives succour to Putin

Editorial, The Sunday Times

An editorial in the Sunday Times criticises Trump’s “unilateral” diesel deal with Russia, which it says is a “shocking act of appeasement” that “gives succour to Putin”. It says that with the deal, Trump is “clearly playing to a domestic audience ahead of the midterms”. Yet it adds that it “could generate billions more dollars for Putin’s war chest”, that it “effectively turned American foreign policy on its head” and that there are “serious doubts” over whether it will do much to cut US fuel prices in any case. An editorial in the Times calls the deal “irresponsible political theatre”. Analysis from the Sunday Times says it “could change everything but diesel prices”. Analysis from BBC News says the amount of diesel due for release this month is “approximately half of the US daily consumption”.

MORE COMMENT

An editorial in the Financial Times says one factor in the “remarkable resilience of the global economy” in the wake of the Hormuz crisis is “long-running [government] efforts to support the green transition”.

Analysis from Guardian environment editor Fiona Harvey reflects on the UK party conference season: “Tories plan to scrap low-carbon housebuilding, Greens back new nuclear reactors and Labour put oil-drilling decisions on hold.”
Financial Times columnist Camilla Cavendish reflects on the Conservative conference, saying the party “has often been uncomfortably shrill”. She says it “hasn’t helped itself” on climate change “by simply sounding anti-environment”.
Financial Times international politics commentator Janan Ganesh says the public are “perilously nonchalant” after “too many have cried wolf”. He adds: “You might feel licensed to belittle climate concern if you remember expert-sounding talk of an eternal pandemic.”
An editorial in the Sun claims without evidence that approving new North Sea oil and gas production “could bring down bills and restore energy security”.
In the Daily Telegraph, climate-sceptic former cricketer Ian Botham rails against windfarms. For the Sunday Times, architect Norman Foster promotes nuclear power because “renewables alone cannot save us without destroying fragile ecosystems”.

Research

The rate of global warming over 2011-25 was twice as fast as during 1971-2025, indicating that the 1.5C warming threshold will be crossed by 2028 – nearly a decade earlier than previously estimated | npj climate and atmospheric science
“Large-scale forest expansion” could can amplify global warming by “accelerating regional cloud loss” | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
The number of terrestrial species exposed to sea level rise will increase from around 13,700 in 2050 to 15,300 by 2100 | Science

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