Daily Briefing: Exxon ‘raises’ emissions forecast | UK PM ‘fully commits’ to net-zero | Record water vapour

18.09.26

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News

Exxon raises 2050 global emissions forecast, sees slower coal decline

Sheila Dang, Reuters

In its latest annual energy outlook, oil and gas giant ExxonMobil estimates that ‌coal will account for 15% of the world’s energy mix by 2050, reports Reuters. This, the newswire says, is down from Exxon’s projection of 25% in 2025, but one percentage point more than the company’s “previous projection”. The report projects that annual global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will reach 30bn tonnes by 2050, “far above the level of 11bn metric tonnes” determined as necessary by the UN to “limit increases in average temperatures”, says Reuters. Company director Prasanna Joshi reportedly said that the projection implies global temperatures could rise by 2.5C-3C by 2050. Joshi also noted that Exxon’s outlook, which provides the basis for its investment decisions, “does not account for the Middle East conflict”, according to the newswire. Exxon also lowered its estimate for how much carbon will be captured and stored globally by 2050 to 2bn tonnes, down from 3.1bn tonnes.

MORE ON GLOBAL ENERGY

The Associated Press reports on how countries are “embracing clean power and taking steps to use less energy” in the wake of the Iran war, but warns this is “not yet enough” to help address climate change.
Reuters: “Energy disruption hits Bangladesh and Pakistan as Gulf crisis worsens.”
BusinessGreen and the New York Times cover Carbon Brief analysis which finds that global fossil fuel emissions are set to fall by 0.5% this year due to the Iran war.
The Independent and CNBC have long reads looking at how gas and diesel prices in the US have reached record levels.
Reuters: “JP Morgan says it has no clear oil market endgame as Iran conflict drags on.”
Analysts say ocean container shipping rates have returned to levels seen after Covid-19 and “could set new record highs” as the Iran war drives fuel costs higher, according to Reuters.

Andy Burnham: UK must fully commit to reaching net-zero by 2050

Peter Walker, The Guardian

There is widespread coverage of a comment article by UK prime minister Andy Burnham in the Guardian – see Comment section below – where he said the UK must “fully commit” to reaching net-zero by 2050. In a related news article, published on its frontpage, the Guardian says that these are Burnham’s “strongest comments yet” on the topic. It continues that Burnham said the UK must “believe in itself” and set out his determination to reach net-zero targets – which it notes have been rejected by the Conservatives and Reform UK. The Guardian says the “tone marks a contrast to the summer, when Burnham faced criticism for a seemingly muted response to the heatwaves, droughts and wildfires”. The Independent notes that Burnham’s “announcement” comes after a parliamentary committee advised the government to drop the term “net -zero” on the grounds it has “become toxic among the public”. In a separate article, the Independent looks into the new £30m community energy fund promoted in the piece by the prime minister. BusinessGreen, the Sun, Daily Telegraph and Times also cover Burnham’s comments.

MORE ON UK

The Daily Telegraph, Daily Mirror and Sky News cover a survey of 2,500 hospital nursing staff revealing that patients died and others deteriorated in “suffocating atmospheres” during the summer heat.
Almost 600 climate scientists, health professionals and conservationists have urged Burnham to decline licence applications for the Rosebank oil field in the Atlantic, according to the Press Association.
The Daily Mail reports that foreign secretary Ed Miliband will have the “final say” over oil drilling in the Falkland Islands.
The Daily Telegraph covers a report from the cross-party energy security and net zero select committee, warning that an energy transition “whose upfront costs fall on those least able to pay…will not command public support and does not deserve to”.
The Independent: “Torrential rain over seven months needed to bring England out of drought, experts warn.”
In two recent speaking engagements, new UK development minister Kirsty McNeill has emphasised that she is a “huge believer in [foreign] aid”, says the Independent.

Canada welcomes EU proposal to become ‘associate member’

Jessica Rawnsley, BBC News

Canadian prime minister Mark Carney has “welcomed” plans for the North American nation to become the first “associate member” of the EU and called for “closer cooperation on defence, critical minerals and energy security”, reports BBC News. In comments delivered to the European parliament yesterday, Carney said Canada and Europe could strengthen their “strategic autonomy” through “deep co-operation in the full range of strategic capabilities, including critical minerals”, it continues. Carney said that Canada could supply liquefied natural gas and hydrogen to support European energy security, while benefiting from Europe’s expertise in clean-energy technologies, according to BBC News. Carney’s address comes a day after European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen said she wanted Canada to become the EU’s first associate member, according to BBC News. The Financial Times, which covers Carney’s “landmark speech” on its frontpage, notes that Carney said he wanted Canada to “deepen its involvement” in the Horizon Europe research programme. Reuters unpacks “highlights” of the speech.

MORE ON EUROPE

Euractiv: “Standoff over green safeguards delays EU budget agreement.”
Germany’s gas industry is “up in arms” after the energy grid regulator “moved to limit potential profits for companies planning to invest in new pipelines that analysts believe are not needed”, according to Euractiv.
Reuters: “Italy’s Meloni visits Norway to boost energy, critical minerals ties.”
Greece’s prime minister said the country will unveil a new heating fuel support package next week, says Reuters.
Construction has begun on a €1bn green hydrogen project in Spain, reports Reuters.
European climate commissioner Wopke Hoekestra has told Euractiv the EU expects countries to present a “united front” on a deal to slash global shipping emissions at international shipping talks next month.

Planet’s atmosphere breaks record for water vapour levels increasing risk of extreme heat and rainfall

Graham Readfearn, The Guardian

The Guardian reports on an update from the EU Copernicus Climate Change Service which found the planet’s atmosphere held more water vapour in August than any other month on record. High water vapour levels, the newspaper says, further increases the risk of extreme heat and rainfall around the world. Copernicus said the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere through August was 27.35kg per square metre, beating the previous record from July 2024. Climate scientists have said global warming was a contributor to the record – because a warmer atmosphere can hold more water – as well as a “historic El Niño”. Dr Kimberley Reid, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne, tells the Guardian: “Water vapour is also part of the climate feedback loop – water vapour is a greenhouse gas and so the atmosphere will warm even further, and then take up even more water vapour. The root cause is the extra CO2 and methane.”

MORE ON CLIMATE SCIENCE

The New York Times covers a report that finds just 21 of 40,000 glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalayan range – which spans Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan – are being actively monitored.
Le Monde looks at how a “super El Nino” could drive drought in Angola.
The Guardian: “‘Forcing a reckoning’: How Asia is preparing for a ‘supersized’ El Niño.”

EU asks China to voluntarily limit hybrid car exports

Andy Bounds and Joe Leahy, Financial Times

The EU has asked China to “voluntarily” restrict sales of Chinese-made hybrid vehicles to about 15% of the EU market compared with more than one-third today as “part of a deal to prevent a trade war”, reports the Financial Times. The newspaper quotes three unnamed sources, saying that European automakers are “making mass lay-offs as cheaper models made in China flood the market and Brussels wants Beijing to rein in its industry or face higher tariffs”. China has voiced “grave concerns” over “European preference” provisions in the EU’s proposed Public Procurement Act, reports state news agency Xinhua. Chinese electric-vehicle manufacturer BYD looks to establish four plants in Europe “over the long term” as the company “seeks to comply with emerging local-manufacturing rules and win over more customers”, reports Bloomberg. China is considering BYD for a business delegation to join Xi Jinping’s summit with US president Donald Trump next week in Washington, reports Bloomberg. Bloomberg also publishes an opinion article by energy columnist David Fickling under the headline: “China’s electric cars aren’t Europe’s real problem.”

MORE ON CHINA

Chinese president Xi Jinping has called for China to make its advanced manufacturing sector “bigger and stronger” and “strengthen control over key industrial supply chains”, reports Reuters. Li Qiang, Chinese premier, has called for “greater emphasis on green and low-carbon practices in production methods” and to follow the direction of “green development”, according to Xinhua.
CCTV reports that China has approved five city clusters to carry out pilot programmes for hydrogen applications in areas including fuel-cell vehicles and industrial uses.
Bloomberg: “China’s gas demand outlook clouded by Guangdong’s power shift.”
China’s new “five-year plan” on the crop farming industry calls for continuously improving the level of “green production” in the sector, reports Xinhua.
Tsinghua University’s Zhang Xiliang said China’s carbon market will account for more than 70% of emissions cuts during the 15th “five-year plan” period, reports the 21st Century Business Herald.
BJX News reports that China has launched its first in-orbit verification of flexible perovskite solar modules, a “major step” in space-based solar technology.

Comment

British people understand the climate crisis threat. Today I’m empowering them to tackle it

Andy Burnham, The Guardian

UK prime minister Andy Burnham writes in the Guardian that communities will “soon have the chance to build and control their own clean energy supply” thanks to a £30m government investment in “people’s power” projects. He says he is “acutely aware that the changing climate is a major concern for Britons” and stresses that the “climate crisis is not a distant threat”, but “is here and with us now”. Community energy, he argues, gives British people – who are “no longer insulated from the consequences” of climate change – an opportunity to be included in climate “solutions”. Burnham notes that the climate crisis comes with “enormous challenge and possibility. In the coming years, we need to change the way we travel, build homes and produce energy. I have long seen the green transition as the best chance we will ever have to reindustrialise Britain.” He concludes that he is “determined that we meet the commitment on which Labour was elected and reach net-zero by 2050.”

MORE UK COMMENT

An editorial in the Times argues the “case for clean, home-grown energy is unanswerable, but it must be made in terms of affordability, security and growth”.
An editorial in the Daily Mirror argues for the modernisation of UK hospitals, noting that “hotter are no longer some distant threat, yet too many hospitals remain woefully unprepared when temperatures soar”.
The Daily Telegraph runs a column by associate editor Ben Marlow headlined: “The west has surrendered to China in the battle for carmaking supremacy.”
An editorial in the Scotsman says the Scottish National Party’s “anti-nuclear obsession is damaging efforts to reach net-zero”.

The Guardian view on the Nepal-Tibet floods: a spur to action on climate

Editorial, The Guardian

An editorial in the Guardian highlights Nepalese politicians’ plans to ask for $20m from the UN loss-and-damage fund to rebuild the country after the recent Himalayan floods. It points to a recent attribution study on the disaster, which found that “fossil fuel pollution was judged to have destabilised the geology of the mountain environment”. [For more, see Carbon Brief’s Q&A.] The editorial continues that Nepal’s leaders are “right to insist that other countries should pay towards its recovery”, noting that the country is estimated to be responsible for less than 0.1% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The newspaper argues that the “plight of the Nepali people” should not only be a “spur to accelerate the green transition and intensify decarbonisation”, but a “wake-up call to the governments and institutions that must find a way to make a global climate-finance system work”. Boosting the loss-and-damage fund “must be prioritised” at the COP31 summit if climate justice is to “remain a credible goal”, the Guardian concludes.

MORE COMMENT

Financial Times US energy reporter Martha Muir summarises the findings of a S&P Global report that says energy and climate discourse needs a “path back to pragmatism”.
In the Guardian, columnist Moira Donegan argues that part of Trump’s “love of fossil fuels” is “libidinal” and because he sees “polluting energy industries” as “more manly”.
Michael Grunwald, contributing opinion writer for the New York Times, says the proposed revisions to the Greenhouse Gas Protocol “would make cutting down trees look good for the climate”.
E3G’s Matt Webb and the Istanbul Policy Center’s Umit Sahin write on Backchannel that the upcoming UN General Assembly is a “key moment” ahead of COP31.
The Financial Times’ Lex column asks whether warming temperatures due to El Niño will be the “saviour” of Europe’s energy markets.
A Wall Street Journal editorial says California’s climate subsidies and taxes are making the state’s fuel shortage acute.

Research

The planet has become “less dusty” in the early 21st century, which “might have modestly contributed to the rapid warming of the past two decades” | Science Advances
Warmer conditions in Barcelona over a 31-year period (1994-2024) are linked to earlier pollen season in “over 65%” of tree and plant taxa | Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
A study highlights the potential for automated detection of misinformation using large language models to combat misinformation | Climatic Change