Daily Briefing: Lula wins | China-EU cooperation | Rosebank ‘split’

26.10.26

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Lula is declared winner of Brazil’s election as Bolsonaro rejects results

Eléonore Hughes, Mauricio Savarese and Anna-Catherine Brigida, The Associated Press

There is global media coverage of the re-election of Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, following a tense battle with his far-right opponent Flávio Bolsonaro. The Associated Press says Lula’s surprise victory “provides relief to critics of widening US influence in Latin America”. The newswire says Lula, who is nearly 81, had a lead of 4.4m votes, giving him 51.8% of the vote. In an interview with the Guardian published just before the runoff vote, Lula’s former environment Marina Silva warned that, if Bolsonaro was elected, he would “try to finish his father’s ‘perverse project’ to destroy the Amazon”. The New York Times said over the weekend the “future of the Amazon rainforest could depend on who wins”. [See Carbon Brief’s analysis published last month: “Lula presidency saved at least 20,000km2 of Brazilian Amazon since 2022.”]

In Brazil, O Globo notes that it was a “coalition between the north-east and major urban centres which secured Lula’s victory”. An editorial in Folha de S.Paulo argues that “it is urgent that arrogance does not prevent him from understanding the significance of his victory…it will be necessary to choose between a harsh and potentially unpopular adjustment, rejected during the campaign, and the path to economic collapse”. Meanwhile, Bloomberg writes: “Traders are bracing for steep losses across Brazilian markets Monday after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva pulled off a stunning comeback to defeat Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing candidate that many investors preferred.”

China and EU pledge climate cooperation

Hou Liqiang, China Daily

Huang Runqiu, the head of China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE), has reaffirmed the country’s commitment to “deepening cooperation” with the EU on major issues, including climate change, on the sidelines of COP17 in Armenia, reports the state-run newspaper China Daily. It adds that the two sides discussed global biodiversity conservation, plastic pollution and the upcoming COP31 climate conference. Industry news outlet BJX News reports that the EU has repealed anti-dumping and countervailing duties on imports of solar glass from China. Bloomberg says the EU is looking for the next sectors to negotiate with China after reaching a deal on hybrid vehicles. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post says Chinese electric vehicle (EV) production in Europe is driving a 46% surge in China’s lithium-ion battery exports to the EU from January to September. And the Financial Times says: “Chinese wind-turbine maker builds European firewall from Beijing.”

MORE ON CHINA

China’s main grid operator, State Grid, has completed 450bn yuan ($67.6bn) in fixed-asset investment in the first nine months, up 5.2% year on year, reports Xinhua.
The value of Chinese solar product exports rose 10% year-on-year in September, says financial news outlet Caixin.
Inside Climate News: “A potent climate super-pollutant is surging in Beijing.”
Li Qionghui, with the China Energy Research Society, tells the Paper that local energy transitions can be achieved through consuming “green electricity” while “enhancing the green competitiveness of locally produced goods”.
China’s new “five-year plan” for “national informatisation” calls for “improving coordination between digitalisation and green development”, according to Xinhua.
Erik Solheim, former UN deputy secretary-general and current chair of the Europe-Asia Centre, tells the Paper that Europe should be “less arrogant” and learn from East Asia’s “green transition”.

Canada: Mark Carney’s energy ambitions boosted by Conservative victory in British Columbia

Ilya Gridneff, The Financial Times

The Financial Times reports that Mark Carney’s ambition to turn Canada into an “energy superpower” has “received a boost after the Conservative Party won a key provincial election for the first time in almost 100 years”. The newspaper adds: “The British Columbia Conservative Party, led by Lorne Doerkson, won a majority on Sunday in a dramatic reversal of fortunes after months of internal conflict and controversies that threatened to derail their campaign…Doerkson has promised a raft of new measures to appeal to the oil and gas sector, including ending emissions limits and replacing the province’s carbon tax framework. He has urged big energy companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron and Woodside to reinvest in British Columbia.” Reuters says the result “marks an end to nine years of power for the left-of-center New Democrats, who voiced opposition to new oil pipelines and supported a ban on tankers along the province’s ⁠northern coast”.

UK: Chancellor backs oil drilling at Rosebank risking cabinet split

Steven Swinford, The Sunday Times

The Sunday Times claims that “[UK prime minister Andy Burnham is facing a cabinet split over approving a second new oil and gas field after it emerged that the chancellor and the business secretary strongly support it”. It adds: “A minister told the Mail on Sunday that Burnham would ultimately back Rosebank. ‘Both Andy and [chancellor] John [Healey] have decided Rosebank needs to go ahead,’ the minister said. ‘The economic and energy security case is so strong and the Energy Wealth Fund will help mitigate concerns around the environment.’” The climate-sceptic Mail on Sunday claims Burnham and Healey are “plotting to override the opposition of [foreign secretary Ed] Miliband and energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh by pumping Rosebank’s 500m barrels of oil”. Several other newspapers, including the Daily Telegraph and Guardian, follow up on this unverified speculation. The Scotsman says “opposition parties step up pressure on the government to back Rosebank”.

Meanwhile, there is continuing speculation over what Healey will set out in this week’s budget. The Daily Mail says he is “draw[ing] up plans for ‘green tax’ on imported fuel amid fears it will bump up prices even more”. The Observer says he is planning “deep energy reforms to cut Britain’s bills”, adding: “The chancellor’s first budget is set to target structural weakness by decoupling gas and power prices and supporting entrepreneurs.” The Financial Times reports: “It is expected that the chancellor will remove renewable obligations on industrial electricity bills.”

MORE ON UK

The Times: “Ministers battling to avoid reservoirs running dry by Christmas.”
The Guardian: “‘False autumn’: stressed trees drop leaves early after scorching English summer.”
The National: “Climate scientists and campaigners round on English Greens over nuclear u-turn.”
The Times: “Sensors will help reduce wind-turbine switch-off costs.”
The Mail on Sunday: “Britons are split into five ‘tribes’ on climate change but many agree on one thing…why do our best if the others keep polluting?”
The Times: “Andy Burnham steps aside from EV decision over wife’s industry links.”

US: Climate group pours in midterms money for Democrats

Matthew Choi, The Washington Post

The Washington Post says that, “in an election defined by affordability concerns, a climate group is emerging as one of the biggest independent spenders in support of Democrats this year”. The newspaper adds: “The League of Conservation Voters (LCV), a nonprofit dedicated to environmentalism and combating climate change, is raising its spending total to $110m this year through its affiliated groups. The investment is in support of Democratic House and Senate candidates in highly competitive elections and makes LCV one of the biggest spenders in the 2026 elections giving to Democrats.” The article continues: “While climate change was a defining issue for Democrats under President Joe Biden, it has largely receded from the party’s discourse, with polling and focus groups suggesting it was too abstract to drive voters to the polls. In response, the LCV Victory Fund plans to focus its message on the environmental issues directly affecting voters, including water pollution, high electricity costs and data centres.”

MORE ON US

The New York Times has published an investigation under the headline: “How Trump gave the worst polluters a free pass.” An accompanying article lists “five takeaways from our investigation of Trump’s waivers for polluters”.
Time: “Clean energy has a lot riding on the AI data-centre boom.”
The New York Times: “Why anger about data centres and energy prices may not swing votes.”
The Wall Street Journal: “These mini power plants aim to make green fuel, using the air around them.”
The Guardian: “The US west has lost nearly 300 glaciers since the 1960s. Climate crisis is drastically shrinking what’s left.”

Climate accounting body in battle over corporate ‘capture’, say staff

Kenza Bryan, The Financial Times

The Financial Times reports that the head of Greenhouse Gas Protocol, a global climate accounting watchdog, has “tried to block stricter rules on Big Tech’s green claims, triggering a battle over corporate influence on the body”. The newspaper adds: “Former BCG partner Tim Mohin became the inaugural chief executive of the Greenhouse Gas Protocol this year and has advocated for closer alignment of the standards-setting body with the positions of major companies, including Amazon and Meta, according to internal documents seen by the FT and interviews with colleagues.” It continues: “An external review commissioned by one of the body’s largest funders, the Ikea Foundation, also flagged last month that the heavy corporate representation on two of its governing committees threatened its ‘independence and credibility’. The EU, California and the International Financial Reporting Standards rely on the Greenhouse Gas Protocol’s standards to govern how companies disclose their emissions. This has exposed it to lobbying from sectors including tech and oil and gas.”

Nuclear power could more than triple by 2060, UN agency says

Edith M Lederer, The Associated Press

Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, says in the organisation’s annual report that he expects the use of nuclear power “could more than triple by 2060” and, according to the Associated Press, that this will be driven by electrification, data centres powered by artificial intelligence and “technology companies’ appetite for reliable, carbon-free power”. Grossi is quoted saying: “In 2025, more than 400 operating reactors in more than 30 countries produced 10% of global electricity and a quarter of its low-carbon electricity. More than 60 new reactors are under construction and the projections for future nuclear capacity have shifted dramatically upward.”

Comment

U-turn on EV policy could stall UK’s take-up of EVs

Fiona Harvey and Jasper Jolly, The Guardian

A co-authored analysis in the Guardian asks: “Why…is the government considering a major U-turn on electric vehicle policy that, if followed through, could stall the take-up of EVs, help to close off a route to lower living costs, and dent the UK’s ability to meet its carbon targets?” It says a consultation on the “zero-emissions vehicle” (ZEV) mandate, which ended on Friday, could see interim targets for ZEVs to make up 80% of new car sales by 2030 cut to as low as 50%. It continues: “Taken with previous watering down of the policy to allow more sales of hybrid cars – which use both electric and combustion engines – that change would lead to emissions greater than burning all the gas in the Jackdaw field, according to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.” Writing on his Bright Spots substack, Prof Jan Rosenow explains how “heat pumps and EVs cut emissions, even on a gas-only grid”.

Meanwhile, the UK’s right-leaning, climate-sceptic newspapers publish a range of commentary in response to the approval of gas extraction at Jackdaw in the North Sea. Charles Moore in the Daily Telegraph argues that the “Jackdaw decision is a telling sign of dissent among Labour’s climate faithful”. An editorial in the Mail on Sunday says: “Healey has decided to give the go-ahead to the Rosebank oil and gas field in the North Sea. [This is based on unverified speculation – see above.] The decision is good in itself…But it is also a victory in a wider battle between common sense and climate posturing.” An editorial in the Sunday Telegraph is headlined: “Resilience demands Labour ends its energy idiocy.” Andrew Neil in the Daily Mail rails, as ever, against the “net-zero obsession”. And the Sunday Express carries an interview with the Conservative energy spokesperson Andrew Bowie under the headline: “Chasing net-zero is madness…it’s just making us poorer.”

MORE COMMENT

Ron Bousso in Reuters: “How Trump’s energy dominance turned into hubris.”
An editorial in the Times continues its editorial campaigning against the way it perceives the UK’s grid is being run: “Ofgem must investigate whether UK’s electricity grid is safe – or not.”
Graham Readfearn in the Guardian: “The Australian reports ‘widespread errors’ in Bureau of Meteorology temperature data. Where is the evidence for those big claims?”
Mark Hertsgaard in the New Republic: “When the term “heatwave” is no longer enough.”

Research

Wet-season emissions in south Asia are “nearly twice” those in the dry season, driven by wetlands, rice production, waste management and fossil fuels | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
An analysis of the greenhouse gas emission trajectories in 208 countries and territories over 54 years puts 65% into a “rapidly rising” category | Science of The Total Environment
All Atlantic marine ecosystem services are projected to be exposed to “multiple emerging stressors” before 2100 | Global Environmental Change

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