Daily Briefing: ‘Record-shattering’ El Niño | UK heat and fires | Romania nuclear shutdown

14.08.26

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News

El Niño is headed for record-shattering intensity, NOAA says

Andrew Freedman, CNN

There is almost a 70% chance that the building “super El Niño” will be the strongest of its kind on record, according to a forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) covered by CNN. NOAA has upped its projections for the intensity of the 2026-27 El Niño, after previously saying that it would likely rank “among the largest El Niño events in the historical record”. CNN explains: “The change in the forecast largely stems from how rapidly this El Niño is intensifying, along with computer model guidance nearly unanimously showing it will peak in late fall and early winter at a level that is stronger than previously thought. [El Niño is the warm phase of a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that releases heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, raising temperatures and reshaping rainfall and extreme weather globally.] Bloomberg reports that, according to NOAA’s forecast, there is “a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the northern hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27”.

Separately, the Washington Post reports on analysis from Carbon Brief contributor Dr Zeke Hausfather indicating that the boost in global temperatures from El Niño means there is now a 95% chance that 2027 will be the warmest year on record. [This is an update to Hausfather’s recent analysis for Carbon Brief.]

MORE ON EL NIÑO

Bloomberg covers how the “super El Niño” will “add fuel to the climate fire”.
Reuters examines how El Niño could affect food exports from South America.
The Guardian reports on how people are bracing for El Niño-fuelled floods in Porto Alegre, Brazil.
Climate scientists speak to San Francisco Gate about how El Niño could raise the risk of extreme weather in California.
Reuters reports on how businesses are concerned about the impact of El Niño.

UK records hottest day of the year as fifth heatwave reaches 38.1C peak

Ruth Comerford, BBC News

The UK battled wildfires and a train derailment on its hottest day of the year yesterday, with temperatures reaching 38.1C. The news made the frontpages of the Guardian, Times, Daily Mirror, Daily Mail, Daily Telegraph and Daily Star. BBC News reports that Kew Gardens in west London recorded the UK’s highest temperature of the year and fifth hottest on record, provisionally exceeding the 38C recorded in Norfolk on 26 June. It adds: “The only time a temperature this high was recorded twice in a calendar year was in 2022.”

The extreme hot and dry conditions have “exacerbated” wildfires across England, reports the Guardian. It says: “Firefighters in the UK continued to tackle a blaze in the New Forest in Hampshire. In the West Midlands, at least six homes were damaged and four people were taken to hospital for treatment because of an extensive grassfire near Stourbridge golf course. About 60 firefighters were sent to the scene, while the area’s town hall was set up to receive those fleeing their homes.” According to the newspaper, Wollaston and Stourbridge Town councillor Andrew Tromans said: “The apocalyptic scenes in Norton and across Stourbridge are sadly just a taste of what is to come if we don’t act.” The Times reports that a “child was taken to hospital after inhaling smoke and six other people were treated”. The Daily Mail spoke to local residents who were “forced to flee” their homes.

A train derailed near Lewes, east Sussex, seriously injuring two people and hurting 18 others, reports the Daily Telegraph. It says: “Passengers described having no access to lavatories or water for more than an hour while trapped in the ‘incredibly hot’ carriages.” It continues that “rail officials have yet to say why part of the Great British Railways-liveried train came off the tracks”, but experts have said it “may have been caused by the heatwave”. Separately, the Daily Telegraph reports on “why our rail tracks can’t stand soaring heat”. Lewes MP James MacCleary tells the Times that “concerns had been raised recently about the condition of tracks in the area due to the sustained heatwaves”.

MORE ON UK

England’s A&Es have had their “busiest period ever” amid the heat in May, June and July, reports BBC News.
The Financial Times: “UK government considers aid for drought-hit farmers.” Al Jazeera speaks to farmers affected by drought. The Guardian explores farmers’ methods for coping with drought, from “tougher crops to beaver dams”.
The Guardian speaks to workers “struggling in the extreme heat”.
The Guardian: “Searches for UK homes with air conditioning more than double.”
UK solar panel installations hit a 15-year high in 2026, says the Independent. The Daily Telegraph reports that homes with solar panels could effectively “run air con for free” during heatwaves.
The Times covers a UK survey finding 19% of electric vehicle (EV) drivers have had a flat battery in the past year, noting that concerns about EVs were “significantly greater among drivers of petrol and diesel cars than among those who own one”.

Europe: Romania shuts down nuclear reactor as Danube hits record lows

Milena Wälde, Politico

Romania completely shut down its only nuclear power plant yesterday after water levels in the drought-hit Danube river fell too low to supply its last remaining operating reactor, reports Politico. The plant supplies 20% of the country’s power, reports the outlet, continuing: “The government insisted the national grid remained stable and said it would bridge the shortfall with imports, hydropower, wind, coal and reserve generation.” It added that a government statement said that water levels in the Danube were expected to remain insufficient for nuclear power generation for at least the next 10 days. The Guardian says that “Romania has declared a state of energy emergency throughout August and asked companies and households to reduce consumption during peak hours”. It adds: “Shutting down the reactor posed immediate problems for Moldova, Romania’s eastern neighbour, ⁠which has also endured low river levels and relies on Romanian power to cover up to 60% of its own electricity shortages.” Hungary is “straining to keep its last nuclear power plant running”, says Reuters.

MORE ON EUROPE

More than 135 million people across Europe are set for temperatures over 35C in the continent’s latest heatwave, says Al Jazeera.
Germany evacuated 1,800 people as a wildfire approached a village bordering Belgium, says Reuters.
The Independent: “France and Spain at extreme risk of new fires as temperatures soar to 42C.”
This year’s heatwaves may cost France as much as €15bn ($17.3bn), a minister has said, reports Bloomberg.
The Independent: “Greek wildfires force tourists to flee resorts at peak holiday season.”

China: Carbon market trading volume exceeds 930m tonnes; to expand to petrochemical and other industries

China.com

Huang Runqiu, head of China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE), said at a press conference yesterday that China’s national carbon market (ETS) has recorded a trading volume of more than 930m tonnes by the end of July, according to China.com. MEE’s vice minister Li Gao said the ETS will expand to other high-emitting industries, including petrochemicals and chemicals, to cover 80% of China’s CO2 emissions, reports state news agency Xinhua. Li also said China’s voluntary carbon market will provide “incentives for carbon reduction and sequestration projects in more sectors”, adds the newswire. Environmental protection work “got off to a good start” in 2026 and has “strongly promoted the green and low-carbon transition”, according to Huang, says another Xinhua report. The MEE will focus on major environmental and ecological issues, investigate problems thoroughly and take appropriate action, said Huang, according to ifeng.com. China will also address carbon trade barriers, strengthen climate resilience and deepen international cooperation on climate change, says Xinhua.

MORE ON CHINA

Scientists warn that typhoons have become “more likely to affect east Asia as a result of climate change”, according to Reuters.
China has amended regulations on carbon emissions trading ahead of the Ecological and Environmental Code coming into effect, says BJX News. Xinhua publishes the full list of amendments.
An article by Economic Daily says the coal-fired power share falling below half does not mean coal power is becoming “marginalised”, saying instead its role is “shifting”.
BloombergNEF predicts China’s new solar power capacity installations for 2026 will reach 255 gigawatts in 2026, according to BJX News.
Dialogue Earth: “China’s new carbon-intensity measure has not changed its climate pledges.”
A “GT Voice” opinion article by Global Times argues that the US ban on battery waste exports to China and other “export controls will never provide a shortcut to long-term supply chain security”. China Daily says China’s “rules-based management of critical mineral exports” safeguards its “strategic resources”.

Comment

Lost jobs, inequality, rogue agents: why are we accepting oligarchs’ AI agenda?

Prof Robert Reich, The Guardian

In the Guardian, Prof Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor and a professor of public policy, writes on the social and environmental dangers of the US artificial intelligence boom. He says: “Amazon is now investing in a natural-gas power plant linked to a Pecos county, Texas, datacenter. The site could become the country’s largest single source of climate pollution, the New York Times reported. According to regulatory records reviewed by the Times, the plant will be allowed to release 33m tonnes of carbon dioxide a year. So much for Amazon’s promise to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2040 as part of its climate pledge. You can bet other giants in the AI race will be turning to natural gas, too.”

Elsewhere, the Wall Street Journal carries a column by prominent climate sceptic Bjorn Lomborg that falsely claims the decrease in global burned area is evidence that climate change is not increasing wildfire risk. [Global burned area has decreased due to a number of factors, including changing human land-use practices.] In the Daily Mail, climate-sceptic columnist Richard Littlejohn claims “tree-huggers and eco-zealots” have fuelled the UK’s wildfires by protecting ecosystems and, so, increasing vegetation available to burn. [UK environmentalist Ben Goldsmith is among those to disprove this argument.] In other sceptic commentary, the Daily Telegraph continues its run of anti-net-zero articles, including a column by Kathryn Porter claiming that net-zero is making the National Grid “more fragile” and another by David Frost claiming the “anti-car blob is out of control”. Daily Telegraph energy editor Jonathan Leake also has a piece claiming that “Britain’s grid operators had to pay £6.2m for extra electricity to keep UK lights on the day of the solar eclipse”.

MORE COMMENT

Kirsten Schuijt, director general of WWF International, writes in Reuters that “fixing food systems must be at the heart of all three COPs” this year.
Guardian economics editor Nils Pratley writes on the rising risks of “energy nationalism” in Europe.
A Lex opinion in the Financial Times says Europe’s wind industry is “recovering at speed”.

Research

Limiting the rate of CO2 emissions is “critical for reducing the risk” of a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation | Nature Climate Change
Geopolitical conflict “significantly reduces” access to electricity and clean cooking fuels, likely by exacerbating supply chain disruptions | Energy Policy
Vulnerability to extreme heat in eastern Australia is concentrated inland, due to ageing populations, poorer health and reduced vegetation | Climatic Change