Daily Briefing: World ‘headed for’ 2.8C | UK approves gasfield | Age of ‘heat storms’

21.10.26

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News

World headed for warming of 2.8C, UN reports, and US emissions rise

Kenza Bryan and Steven Bernard, The Financial Times

The UN Environment Programme “emissions gap” report 2026 says that the “world is running headlong towards a long-term temperature rise of 2.8C based on present government policies…with the US standing out among developed economies with sharply higher energy-related emissions”, says the FT. It continues: “Under president Donald Trump’s policies, a rebound in coal generation to meet increased US power demand drove the rise, after mainly trending down over the past decade. Emissions also rose in Indonesia and China, but were lower in India and the EU.”

CNN reports that the report also says the world will “unavoidably slip past the Paris Climate Agreement’s 1.5C warming target in the next few years”. It adds: “The task now, the report states, is to make the period of warming ‘overshoot’ as limited as possible, eventually bringing global average temperatures back down.” The Guardian adds that, according to the report: “Cutting greenhouse gases by 18% by 2030, and by 45% by 2045, would yield a good chance of limiting temperature rises to 1.7C.” Carbon Brief has in-depth coverage of the report. There is further reporting in Climate Home News, the New York Times and Down to Earth.

UK approves Jackdaw gasfield in North Sea

Peter Walker and Kiran Stacey, The Guardian

The UK government has this morning announced that it will approve the Jackdaw gasfield project in the North Sea, reports the Guardian. It carries a quote from energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh, who said: “Following careful consideration of all relevant factors I have agreed that the regulator can grant consent for gas to be produced at Jackdaw, which will begin to supply the UK with gas from this winter thanks to the highly skilled and vital North Sea workers. This decision will support the country’s energy security with homegrown gas this winter and help minimise the UK’s use of imported higher emission fuels as we continue our transition to renewables and nuclear. The decision is compatible with our legally binding climate commitments, and we remain resolute in ending new licences for oil and gas and achieving net-zero by 2050.”

The Guardian notes that the decision will “dismay” climate campaigners and some Labour MPs. It quotes Tessa Khan, the executive director of the anti-oil campaign group Uplift, saying: “Jackdaw will provide around just 2% of our gas demand for roughly 10 years. It has been oversold and won’t stop the overall decline in North Sea jobs, as it will be largely unmanned and operated remotely.” It also notes that while Labour’s 2024 election manifesto committed to a ban on new drilling licences in the North Sea, Jackdaw already had a licence and was seeking environmental approval from the government. Following a landmark judgment in 2024, the government was required to consider the emissions from burning the gas produced by Jackdaw before giving approval, it adds. Fahnbulleh said a decision on the Rosebank oilfield will “take a bit longer”, reports the Times.

The decision to approve Jackdaw today was previewed by a wide selection of UK media, including the Financial Times, Sky News, BBC News, Politico, Bloomberg and the Scotsman. The FT notes that, as well as approving Jackdaw, Fahnbulleh announced the “establishment of a new energy wealth fund, which will invest tax revenues from the North Sea into renewables and low-carbon energy”. A separate Guardian story saying that prime minister Andy Burnham faces a “climate revolt” over the decision leads the newspaper’s frontpage. The Daily Telegraph also previews the story on its frontpage. Separately, the Guardian has a story on what the approval means for climate and energy.

China signals intent to push back against cleantech tariffs at COP31

Lewis Jackson, Reuters

Reuters reports that “China wants the COP31 summit in Turkey next month to focus on what it calls the new problem for global climate action: tariffs against its clean technology”. The newswire says that Li Gao, vice minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, told a press conference this morning that COP31 should address issues such as climate finance for the developing world, as well as the “new problem” of unilateralism and protectionism. It quotes him as saying: “We believe the ⁠conference should discuss in depth the old problems of developed countries’ insufficient emission reductions and insufficient financial support, as well as the new problem of unilateralism and protectionism undermining global collective efforts.”

MORE ON CHINA

Bloomberg: “China moves to curb hydrogen overcapacity as investment surges.”
China’s finance minister Lan Fo’an urged member economies at an APEC gathering to promote cooperation in “low-carbon industries”, reports Bloomberg.
China Daily publishes an opinion article by Liu Yuanling of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, arguing that climate and energy cooperation could be an “important pillar” of the “strategic relationship” between China and the US. Another China Daily article says China-US NGO-level cooperation on the “green transition” has a “solid ground”, particularly in supply chains.
A China Daily editorial says China’s release of “guidelines for corporate biodiversity information disclosure” is helping make progress in biodiversity protection possible.
Global Times publishes an editorial saying that Chinese products have helped the world in “tackling climate change”.
CEPN reports that Canada has officially ended 11 years of trade barriers against Chinese solar products, while the South China Morning Post says that Beijing has warned the UK of “firm countermeasures” if it aligns with EU import curbs on EVs.

Paris Agreement committee names three countries snubbing it over NDCs

Joe Lo, Climate Home News

Climate Home News reports that the Paris Agreement’s compliance committee has called out the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Senegal and North Korea for failing to submit a nationally determined contribution (NDC) and “repeatedly snubbing offers of help with their climate plans”. It continues: “The silence from Congo and Senegal is notable because the former is home to much of the Congo Basin rainforest while the latter has sought billions of dollars in climate finance to support its renewable energy ambitions.”

Comment

If we pull the plug on heat pumps, dictators like Putin win

Greg Jackson, The Observer

In the Observer, Octopus Energy CEO Greg Jackson responds to reports the government is considering making cuts to its boiler upgrade scheme. He says: “Fossil fuels both fund dictators and give them leverage. Putin’s income from the sale of oil and gas funds the weapons that kill Ukrainians and our addiction to these fuels is the reason Iran’s power over the strait of Hormuz is making us poorer. Weaning ourselves off gas for heating is vital for our national security, and the boiler upgrade scheme is the only successful investment we’ve ever made in doing so.”

MORE COMMENT

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Daily Telegraph: “The green case for drilling in the North Sea.”
Syed Faizan Ali Shah, advisor to Pakistan’s energy minister, writes for the Backchannel substack that “Pakistan stumbled into energy security”, but Turkey “can plan for it”.
Anjana Ahuja in the Financial Times: “A chance discovery offers hope for coral reefs.”
FT economics commentator Chris Giles says the “pain” from high European gas prices “should be transitory”.
A Washington Post editorial reflecting on US president Trump’s $8bn bailout for farmers asks: “Why should a farmer’s increased diesel bill be reimbursed when a trucking company’s is not?”
Climate sceptic commentator Andrew Neil claims in the Daily Mail that “by championing net-zero”, Ed Miliband and his supporters “risk blood on their hands”.

The age of heat storms

Reuters

Reuters has published a special investigative series into the rise of “heat storms”, defined by Reuters as “supersized heatwaves”. The series includes a piece with interactive charts telling the story of the largest “heat storm” on record. Reuters also published a heat storm tracker that will be updated daily and the methodology for its investigation.

Research

Dry forests and savannahs in the tropics provide around 20% of the global land carbon sink, despite losses from deforestation and degradation | Global Change Biology
South-western US, Mexico, southern Europe, central South America, eastern and southern Africa are “highest-risk hotspots” for dryland soils becoming more saline as the climate warms | Nature Communications
A review of nature-based solutions in Africa finds that half of all studies focus on urban green spaces | Environmental Research Letters