‘Peak oil’ delay | China pledge ‘falls short’ | Warming intensified Ragasa
News
BP predicts higher oil and gas demand, suggesting world will not hit 2050 net-zero target
The Guardian reports that oil giant BP’s “closely watched” annual energy outlook suggests that “the global net-zero target for 2050 will not be met”. BP states that, under current global policies, it expects oil demand to peak at 103m barrels a day in 2030, five years later than it forecast a year ago, according to Reuters. The company attributes this to “slowed efforts to increase energy efficiency and reduce global carbon emissions”, the newswire says. In another scenario, based on meeting the Paris Agreement’s 2C warming target, oil demand peaks this year at 102m barrels a day, the article adds. Bloomberg explains that “geopolitical tensions” are highlighted as one of the factors, adding that “president Donald Trump’s return to the White House has accelerated a global shift away from ambitious energy transition goals”. The Times highlights BP’s forecast that data centres to support AI expansion will account for a 10th of global electricity demand growth over the next decade.
MORE ON FOSSIL FUELS
- Nigeria has “joined several other African countries” in expanding its planned use of gas as a “transition fuel” in its updated climate plan, aiming for 17 gigawatts (GW) of gas power capacity in 2035, Climate Home News reports.
China’s new climate target ‘falls well short,’ EU says
EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra has described China’s new climate pledge as falling “well short of what we believe is both achievable and necessary”, reports Reuters. On Wednesday, Chinese president Xi Jinping set out his country’s plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035, the newswire explains. In a statement, Hoekstra said: “This level of ambition is clearly disappointing and given China’s immense footprint, it makes reaching the world’s climate goals significantly more challenging,” the outlet reports. It adds: “The EU did not announce a new climate target this week, after its member countries failed to agree one in time for the UN summit.”
The Shanghai-based Paper quotes Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, as saying China’s commitments should be seen as the “starting point” and the “floor of ambition for climate action”, rather than the “ceiling of potential”. Guo Jiakun, spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, says that China’s targets show its “determination and consistent actions in actively addressing climate change”, adding that “this is the first time that China put forward an absolute emissions reduction target, which covers economy-wide emissions from all greenhouse gases”, state-run China News reports. Industry news outlet BJX News shares an analysis by Hu Ming, party secretary of the China Electric Power Planning and Engineering Institute. Financial news outlet Caixin publishes an article under the headline: “China releases latest 2035 climate targets, with expanded content and coverage.” UN secretary general António Guterres praised China for achieving its 2030 wind and solar targets six years ahead of schedule at Wednesday’s climate gathering, according to the Paper. [For more on China’s climate pledge, read Carbon Brief’s Q&A and register for Monday’s webinar.]
MORE ON CHINA
- China’s electrification rate reached 28.8% last year, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from 2023, already surpassing that of “major developed economies in Europe and the US”, China Energy Net says, citing a new report by China Electricity Council.
- An article by BJX News says that China’s electricity sector is “undergoing its most painful reshuffle” as renewables’ market entry drives down electricity prices.
- Bloomberg: “China’s remarkable green transition is about to get tougher.”
- Xu Xiaofeng, former deputy director of the China Meteorological Administration and president of the China Meteorological Service Association, tells 21st Century Business Herald that the “suddenness and high intensity of extreme weather events will become the new normal” in the future.
- Reuters: “Exclusive: G7 weighs price floors for rare earths to counter China’s dominance, sources say.”
- Climate Home News reports that experts say this week’s climate pledges by the EU, China and other large countries are “not ambitious enough” to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C warming goal.
UK: Ed Miliband considers expansion of existing North Sea oil fields
In the Times, there is continued coverage of the news that UK ministers are considering expanding existing North Sea oil and gas fields, “despite Labour’s manifesto pledge to ban new ones”. The newspaper cites “government sources”, who say that allowing “tiebacks”, or small expansions of existing sites, is “one option on the table”. The Times coverage frames this as an attempt by the government to “balance an end to oil and gas exploration licences with its drive for economic growth”. However, the article notes that industry sources “admit” that, even if such measures were taken, “a higher oil price and better fiscal conditions would be needed before investors decided to extract the hydrocarbons”.
MORE ON UK
- The i newspaper reports that “oil and gas companies are laying the groundwork for a Reform government that has pledged to bring back fracking”.
- The Daily Telegraph quotes Megan Greene, a member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, saying that carbon pricing could increase energy costs. [Despite framing this as “net-zero push risks fuelling inflation”, much further down the article, the newspaper includes the rest of Greene’s quote, in which she says transitioning to a low-carbon economy would be “less costly than not undergoing the transition at all or implementing it too late and too slowly”.]
- The Sun has an article about energy watchdog Ofgem forecasting an increase in standing charges on energy bills, due to the need to invest in the gas and electricity network “as part of the energy transition”. Ofgem tells the newspaper this will “increase energy security and cut reliance on volatile markets” and that roughly half of the “around £100” increase in bills “would have been needed regardless”.
- The Daily Telegraph reports that a “major North Sea energy supplier has become the most shorted company on the UK stock market amid attacks from Donald Trump on offshore wind turbines”.
- Another Daily Telegraph article says red squirrels are at risk of “local extinction” at a site in Wales due to a wind and solar power project. A spokesperson from the company notes that the proposed project is “located within a commercial forestry plantation”.
- The Wildlife Trusts have warned that the UK is “shockingly unprepared” for the extreme weather driven by climate change, ITV News reports.
Typhoon Ragasa: Human driven climate change intensified storm – studies
Super typhoon Ragasa, which struck the Asia-Pacific region this week, was intensified by “unusually hot oceans”, which can be linked to climate change, according to “preliminary studies” covered by the Hong Kong Free Press. “Rapid attribution” analysis by the French research group ClimaMeter concluded that cyclones such as Ragasa are around 10% wetter than they would have been in the past, the article notes. Similarly, scientists at Climate Central in the US found that, when the storm intensified, sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific were 0.7-1.1C higher than average, a phenomenon that was 10-40 times more likely due to climate change, according to the news outlet. Meanwhile, Agence France-Presse reports on another severe tropical storm that has hit the Philippines in Ragasa’s wake, killing three people and leading to hundreds of thousands of evacuations.
US in talks with states over offshore wind dispute, group says
The Trump administration in the US and officials from several north-east states are in talks to “resolve a dispute over a massive, nearly complete offshore wind project that was ordered to shut down in August”, Bloomberg reports. The news outlet notes that a judge issued a preliminary injunction earlier this week, ruling that work could continue during a lawsuit challenging the shutdown order. Jason Grumet, chief executive officer of trade group the American Clean Power Association, tells Bloomberg that local agencies are pursuing an outcome where the project can still generate power for the region.
MORE ON US
- A group of young activists have filed a petition to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), stating that the US is violating human rights by backing fossil fuels, the Guardian reports.
- US and European companies are “making a $7.5bn bet that small, community-led energy projects can survive the looming phase-out of federal tax credits” for clean energy, Politico reports.
- CNBC reports that, in a quarterly survey of oil and gas companies by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, shale oil companies “say president Donald Trump is hurting investment in the oil patch” and is “giving a grim outlook for the future of the industry”.
- Civil rights group the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) has expressed opposition to a data centre in Alabama, citing the “climate crisis”, according to Inside Climate News.
Comment
China is the adult in the room on climate now
Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, considers China’s newly announced climate target, noting that environmental groups and leaders from the global north have criticised it as “falling short of what the climate crisis demands”. He writes: “Yet to judge China’s climate ambition by the new pledge alone is to miss the far more consequential economic story: China has become the world’s clean tech superpower.” Li notes that countries such as the US have previously announced ambitious goals only to roll them back, while the EU has “embarrassingly” been unable to agree on a new target. “In the west, temporary surges in ambition often give way to political backsliding,” he writes. In conclusion, he states: “China’s announced climate targets may seem tepid. But beneath them is a bold wager: that steady action, powered by industrial strength and vision shielded from political volatility, will ultimately do more to contribute to the global climate effort than lofty, fickle promises ever could.” Li also has an article in the Backchannel Substack, with his colleague Kate Logan, that “unpacks” China’s new target in detail.
MORE CHINA COMMENT
- Bloomberg columnist David Fickling has a more critical take on China’s climate plan, noting that the “wiggle room” in the nation’s pledge could allow for far more coal power generation over the next few years.
- The New York Times gathers together highlights from its Climate Forward live event, including reflections on China’s role as a “renewables superpower”. On this, California governor Gavin Newsom stated that “China is just going to clean our clock”.
- Down to Earth has an analysis article asking: “Why does [China’s] new climate pledge look so weak?”
Trump’s climate tirade will not stop the new ESG
Gillian Tett, a member of the editorial board at the Financial Times, writes in her column that “one rational response” to US president Donald Trump’s vocal rejection of climate change as a “con job” would be to “weep”, given the scale of the threat. “However, another rational reaction to the president’s tirade would also be to laugh – at him. For one thing Tuesday showed is that he is badly out of touch with the realpolitik of modern energy,” she writes. Tett says that in Europe, China and other countries, renewables are being welcomed as a way to boost energy security and cut energy costs. Tett writes: “Call this a new twist on ‘ESG’ – but not with reference to the cuddly ‘environmental, social and governance’ mantra. Instead, this new ESG is linked to hard-headed, self-interested energy (pricing), (geopolitical) security and growth incentives.” She notes that Trump will struggle to derail this trend, given China’s dominance in global low-carbon supply chains.
Softening the stance on British gas and oil production is welcome
A Times editorial welcomes reports that UK energy secretary Ed Miliband is “looking at ways” to allow more drilling for fossil fuels in the North Sea, without technically breaching a manifesto pledge not to grant new licences. The newspaper criticises the government’s previous decision to “choke off production in its sector of the North Sea purely to satisfy green ideology”. It calls Miliband “the high priest of net-zero” and states: “The simple fact is that, whatever the progress in renewable energy in coming years, Britain is going to need natural gas until at least 2050.” The editorial also says that gas from other countries is “more polluting than domestic gas.” [As Carbon Brief has reported, North Sea reserves have already declined enormously and most of what remains is oil, not gas. Moreover, the small emissions advantage of domestic reserves quickly vanishes if increasing UK production raises gas demand even slightly.] Notably, the editorial concludes by acknowledging that “renewables and nuclear must be Britain’s long term future (North Sea production is in any case nearing its end)”.
MORE UK COMMENT
- Climate-sceptic Daily Telegraph columnist Matthew Lynn says the rumoured “U-turn” by the UK government on North Sea drilling “shouldn’t be enough to save Miliband’s job”.
- Another climate-sceptic commentator, Julia Hartley-Brewer, writes in the Sun that she agrees with US president Donald Trump’s assertion that “unchecked immigration and green energy policies” are “destroying” European countries.
- A Sun editorial references its reporting about a potential increase in standing charges on UK energy bills, which it blames on the government’s “rush to renewables”.
Research
A lack of investment in urban green spaces contributes to “seemingly inescapable substandard conditions of living” for immigrant populations in Paris
Solar panels installed in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan plateau increased local warming in the summer and daytime, but increased cooling in the winter and at night, extending the period that the soils stayed frozen by up to 50 days
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Ocean warming, along with an increase in human activities that disturb the seabed, could transform the bottom of the near-shore ocean from a sink of mercury to a source
This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Josh Gabbatiss, with contributions from Henry Zhang and Wanyuan Song. It was edited by Robert McSweeney.
Other stories
- Global poll points to growing corporate investment in net-zero and nature goals (BusinessGreen)
- Electric vehicle sales surge across EU as overall car market stalls (Euronews)
- Wall Street is turning climate finance into an energy security pitch (Bloomberg)
- Comment: Why COP30 needs a cover decision to succeed (Climate Home News)
- UK: GB Energy confirms first NHS Trusts to benefit from £180m solar funding (BusinessGreen)
- World’s coastal settlements moving inland to avoid rising sea levels (Daily Mail)
- ‘Hidden costs’ of climate emergency are worsening California’s affordability crisis – report (The Guardian)
- The undeniable science of extreme weather (The Climate Brink)
- ‘History will remember who showed up’: Keir Starmer faces call to attend COP30 summit (The Guardian)
- Heat stress is a major driver of India’s kidney disease epidemic (Yale Environment 360)
- How cities are beating the heat (The New York Times)
- How aviation is gambling on SAF to deliver on its net zero goals (BusinessGreen)
- The US abandoned climate leadership. Can India step up? (Bloomberg)
- Climate change is making trees grow larger in the Amazon rainforest (New Scientist)