Should you worry that fracking will cause earthquakes? We’ve looked at the latest research examining whether fracking for shale gas could make the earth move.
The short answer is almost certainly not. A recent widely-cited study concluded that compared to other kinds of mining, fracking usually only causes minor tremors.
So you probably don’t need to worry. But there are a couple of important caveats. In a handful of places there have been bigger earthquakes because of fracking. And a new paper out today says oil and gas exploration can weaken rock, making it more vulnerable to knock-on earthquakes caused by other earth tremors.
Fracking and earthquakes
Hydraulic fracturing – known as fracking – involves pumping a fluid made of water mixed with chemicals at high pressure into a drilled well. The fluid creates fractures in the rock, making it possible to extract oil or gas trapped there. So fracking essentially causes minor earthquakes by design, as cracking the rock causes tremors.
But research shows fracking very rarely causes earthquakes people can actually feel. The US Geological Survey found the number of small earthquakes in the USA increased significantly as the fracking industry was developed there. But the vast majority of those earthquakes were “micro” earthquakes registering less than 1 on the moment magnitude scale – a modern version of the better known Richter scale.
Shale gas exploration is simply not in the “premier league” of serious earthquake causes, says Professor Richard Davies, director of Durham University’s Energy Research Institute. Its study of 198 locations showed fracking caused much smaller tremors than other mining processes. Davies has said most fracking induced earthquakes release less energy than someone jumping off a ladder onto the floor.
The Durham study caught the media’s attention, with a swathe of headlines declaring fracking was not a significant cause of earthquakes. But it is worth pointing out that fracking has been linked to some earthquakes that have been felt, if only in three places: one each in Lancashire, the USA, and Canada.
But while fracking itself may not generally cause the earth to shake in a way humans can feel, new research shows processes associated with oil and gas extraction can. A paper published in the journal Science today suggests oil and gas extraction processes – both conventional and unconventional – can be associated with more serious earthquakes.
Extracting oil and gas uses a lot of water, which has to be disposed of – often by pumping it back underground. Pumping the wastewater into the rock can stress geological fault lines and lead to mid-sized earthquakes, the study suggests.
The researchers from Columbia University’s Earth Observatory and the University of Oklahoma’s School of Geology and Geophysics found that large earthquakes thousands of miles away could trigger mid-sized earthquakes in US oil and gas fields which were already stressed by wastewater pumping. Lead author of the study, Nicholas van der Elst, says “the fluids are driving the faults to their tipping point”.
The research shows how a huge earthquake in Chile eventually triggered a mid-sized earthquake in Oklahoma in 2011 which destroyed 14 homes and injured two people. That earthquake registered 5.7 on the moment magnitude scale – the largest earthquake ever associated with wastewater injection.
Similarly, earthquakes in Japan and Sumatra set off mid-sized tremors around wells in Texas and Colorado, the study shows. The red dots on the map below show where the earthquakes occurred:
The sites share some characteristics: they all have a long history of wastewater injection – over a period of decades – and are located near critically stressed faults in the rock.
So while fracking itself may not cause the earth to perceptibly shake, pumping wastewater from the associated processes in certain areas means “a larger induced earthquake could be possible or even likely”, the study says.
Knowing when to stop
Knowing this could actually be helpful, the researchers say. Measuring the size and frequency of the earthquakes could tell drillers when it’s getting dangerous to continue.
One of the paper’s authors, Heather Savage, says:
“If the small number of earthquakes increases, it could indicate that faults are becoming critically stressed and might soon host a larger earthquake”.
The study underlines the importance of monitoring earthquake activity, the researchers say. As fracking becomes more widespread, there will be more wastewater disposal and more faults to stress. If the UK is determined to start fracking, this research may be the key to knowing when it’s time to stop.