Climate science

Degrees of change: the IPCC’s projections for future temperature rise

  • 15 Apr 2014, 12:00
  • Robin Webster

Many governments are trying to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But unless policymakers raise their ambition significantly, temperatures are likely to rise beyond safe levels. We examine the pathways that could take us towards a two degrees temperature rise by the end of the century - or considerably higher. 

On Sunday, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the last in a series of three reports, which together assess the physical evidence that climate change is happening, the  expected impacts over the course of this century and what would need to happen to curb the rise in greenhouse gases.

Embedded in the reports are the scientists' predictions for how high temperatures are likely to rise this century - and what that's likely to mean for ecosystems and societies around the world. 

Comparing scenarios 

The IPCC bases its projections for future temperature rise on two different techniques. 

First, the IPCC has created its own storylines, or scenarios, describing how high temperatures are likely to rise in the future and what that might mean. The scenarios vary according to different predictions for how societies develop and how much effort we make to reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the course of this century.

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Climate fixes and Plan Bs: The IPCC’s guide to staying below two degrees of global warming

  • 14 Apr 2014, 13:10
  • Roz Pidcock

Cutting emissions, ramping up renewable energy, adapting to a new way of life and sucking carbon dioxide out of the air: recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) appear to offer a number of ways to limit the scale and seriousness of climate change.

Which are the real climate solutions, and which are pretty risky bets? Here's what the IPCC says about what will and won't work when it comes to fixing the climate.

The two degree target

What we can do to curb the  impacts of climate change is the topic of the  third in a series of recent reports from the IPCC. But when we talk about limiting climate change, what do we really mean?

The idea that we should avoid "dangerous" interference with the climate has been around for a while. But at the UN climate summit in  Cancun in 2010, governments made the goal of keeping warming to no more two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels an official target.

The world has already warmed by 0.85 degrees over the industrial period and if emissions stay high, we're on course for more like three to five degrees by 2100, the IPCC  noted in its September report.

In other words, without efforts to reduce warming, we're set to fall a long way short of the target.

RCP2.6-8.0

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Media reaction: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's big climate mitigation report

  • 14 Apr 2014, 12:50
  • Mat Hope

While many were still engulfed in their duvets recovering from the night before, the UN spent Sunday morning launching a big report on strategies to tackle climate change. The report was the third instalment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) major review of the most up-to-date climate change research.

If you've been too busy to catch up on the swathes of media coverage since then, have no fear - we've speed-read it all for you:

International cooperation

A significant proportion of the media focused on the report's message that there is still time for countries to act to avoid the worst impacts of climate change - but only if they work together.

  • The  Financial Times said the IPCC was sure there is "still time to save the world". It quotes one of the report's co-chairs, Ottmar Edenhofer, saying the report carried "a message of hope"  that tackling climate change "can be done".
  • Doing so would mean cutting emissions "by up to 70% by 2050 if it is to prevent global temperatures rising by more than two degrees", the  Sunday Times reports. The IPCC's research shows "stabilising climate is humanity's biggest challenge", it adds.
  • Newswire  Agence France Presse described the report's findings as a "wake up call" for governments. It said the IPCC identifies a 15-year window in which countries' will be able to act to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
  • That means "governments must do more" to address rising emissions, the Washington Post argues. Countries must work together to lower emissions by 40 to 70 percent, according to the IPCC's findings, it said.
  • Taking a slightly different angle, the  Independent on Sunday was the only major UK newspaper to focus on the consequences of inaction. Unless the world acts soon, the IPCC says emissions could reach a level "that could reap devastating effects on the planet", the newspaper reports.
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