New research

Surface warming ‘hiatus’ could stick around for another decade, say scientists

  • 21 Aug 2014, 19:00
  • Roz Pidcock

A flip-flopping natural fluctuation in the Atlantic is behind a recent slowdown in surface warming - and it's not due to reverse for another ten years, according to new research.

The theory outlined in a paper  published today in the journal Science disagrees with other research, which pins the blame for the so-called "pause" on changes in the Pacific.

We talked to some other scientists working in the field - and they don't seem convinced.

Puzzle solving

Scientists know greenhouse gases are driving up  global temperature. But data on land and  the surface of the ocean shows  slower than expected warming in the last 15 years or so.

Periods of slower and faster warming  aren't unusual. Scientists say the main reason we're seeing one now is because more heat is finding its way to the  deeper ocean, rather than staying at the surface.

But which ocean? Knowing where the heat is ending up might help scientists predict how long the hiatus will last.

Where Is Global Warming Going _infographic

More than 93 per cent of the heat reaching earth's surface goes into the oceans. Just 2.3 per cent stays in the atmosphere. Source: Skeptical Science

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‘Hiatus’ in surface warming is upping the odds of UK cold winters, say scientists

  • 17 Aug 2014, 20:20
  • Roz Pidcock

If you follow climate science, you'll be familiar with the so-called surface warming "hiatus". It's the fact that temperatures at earth's surface haven't climbed as much as expected in the last 15 years.

Now a  new paper published in Nature Climate Change says the slowdown in surface warming could be behind a spell of colder than average winters in the UK recently.

Screen Shot 2014-08-17 At 20.07.46

UK winters in 2009/10 were two degrees and 1.3 degrees Celsius below the 1971-2010 long term average, respectively. The 2012/13 winter was 0.4 degrees below the 1981-2010 average. Source: Met Office

Cause of the pause

Scientists know greenhouse gases are driving up  global temperature. But data on land and from the surface of the ocean shows  slower than expected warming in the last 15 years or so.

Scientists say periods of slower and faster warming  aren't unusual. Most of  why we're seeing one now is down to natural climate cycles causing the surface of the  Pacific Ocean to cool.

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Government data hints at future challenges for curbing natural gas emissions

  • 05 Aug 2014, 16:30
  • Mat Hope

Gas plays an essential role in the UK's energy mix, providing heat for homes and electricity to sockets. While that's not likely to change in the short term, the fuel will need to be increasingly phased out as the government seeks to  decarbonise the energy sector.

A trawl through new government  data shows how far the UK's come in recent years, and hints at challenges to come.

Gas trends

The UK currently uses three trillion cubic feet of gas each year. That demand may need to fall by as much as  20 per cent over the next two decades if the UK is going to hit its  climate targets.

The Department of Energy and Climate Change's  Digest of UK Energy Statistics, released last week, shows how much would need to change for that to happen.

DECC's data shows gas demand has fallen 17 per cent in the last five years. But while demand has fallen significantly from 2011's high, its plateaued in recent years. Demand was only one per cent lower in 2013 compared to a year before.

Gas is mainly used for two things, as the blue and purple sections of the graph below show: generating electricity, and heating people's homes.

DUKES 2014 UK gas consumptionDECC's data shows gas is being used increasingly sparingly to generate electricity. The amount of gas used in electricity generation fell by 13 per cent last year. But that doesn't necessarily spell good news for the UK's emissions.  

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