Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

Record power and gas demand 

DOMESTIC TURBINES: China’s top economic planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), expects both electricity demand and gas demand to hit the “highest level yet recorded in winter”, reported Reuters. Data from a sample of coal plants nevertheless showed a recent drop in output year-on-year. Meanwhile, China has developed a “high-efficiency” gas turbine which will “strengthen[ China’s] power grid with low-carbon electricity”, said state news agency Xinhua. According to Bloomberg, the turbine is the first to have been fully produced in China, helping the country to “reduce reliance on imported technology amid a global shortage of equipment”.

‘SUBDUED’ OIL GROWTH: Chinese oil demand is likely to “remain subdued” until at least the middle of 2026, reported Bloomberg. Next year will see “one of the lowest growth rates in China in quite some time”, said commodities trader Trafigura’s chief economist Saad Rahim, reported the Financial Times. Demand is set to plateau until 2030, according to research linked to “state oil major” CNPC, said Reuters. In the building materials industry, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are “projected to fall by 25%” in 2025 relative to pre-2021 levels, China Building Materials Federation president Yan Xiaofeng told state broadcaster CCTV. 

FLAT EMISSIONS GROWTH: China’s CO2 emissions in 2024 grew by 0.6% year-on-year, reported Xinhua, citing the newly released China Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (2024). This represented a “significant narrowing from the 2023 increase and remains below the global average growth rate of 0.8%”, it added. (The bulletin confirms analysis for Carbon Brief published in January, which put China’s 2024 emissions growth at 0.8%.)

China-France climate statements

CLIMATE BONHOMIE: During a visit by French president Emmanuel Macron to China, the two countries signed a joint statement on climate change, reported Xinhua. It published the full text of the statement, which pledged more cooperation on “accelerating” renewables globally, as well as “enhancing communication” in carbon pricing, methane, adaptation and other areas. It also said China and France would support developing countries’ access to climate finance, adding that developed nations will “take the lead in providing and mobilising” this “before 2035”, while encouraging developing countries to “voluntarily contribute”.

MORE COOPERATION: China and France issued separate statements on “nuclear energy” cooperation, Xinhua reported, as well as on expanding cooperation on the “green economy”, according to the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.

EU’s new ‘economic security’ package

NEW PLANS, SAME TOOLS: Meanwhile, the EU has issued new plans to “boost EU resilience to threats like rare-earth shortages”, said Reuters, including an “economic security doctrine” that would encourage “new measures…designed to counter unfair trade and market distortions, including overcapacity”. A second plan on critical minerals will “restrict exports of [recyclable] rare-earth waste and battery scrap” to shore up supplies for “electric cars, wind turbines and semiconductors”, according to another Reuters article. Euractiv characterised the policy package as a “reframing of existing tools and plans”.

‘NOT VERY CREDIBLE’: EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra told the Financial Times that the latest push against the bloc’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which the outlet said is “led by China, India and Saudi Arabia”, was “not very credible”. A “GT Voice” comment in the state-supporting Global Times said the CBAM exposed a dilemma around the “absence of a globally accepted, transparent and equitable standard for measuring carbon footprints”. It called CBAM a “pioneering step”, but said climate efforts needed “greater international coordination, not unilateral enforcement”.

FIRST REVIEW: The EU has undertaken its first “formal review” of the tariffs placed on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs), assessing a price undertaking offer submitted by Volkswagen’s Chinese joint venture, reported SCMP. Chinese EVs – including both hybrid and pure EVs – saw their “second-best month on record” in October, with sales coming down slightly from September’s peak, said Bloomberg.

More China news

• ECONOMIC SIGNALS: At the central economic work conference, held in Beijing on 10-11 December, President Xi Jinping said China would adhere to the “dual-carbon” goals and promote a “comprehensive green transition”, reported Xinhua. 
• EFFORTS ‘INTENSIFIED’: Ahead of the meeting, premier Li Qiang also noted earlier that energy conservation and carbon reduction efforts must be “intensified”, according to the People’s Daily.
• JET FUEL: A major jet fuel distributor is being acquired by oil giant Sinopec, which could “risk slowing [China’s] push to decarbonise air travel”, reported Caixin.
• SLOW AND STEADY: An article in the People’s Daily said China’s energy transition is “not something that can be achieved overnight”.
• ‘ECO-POLICE’: China’s environment ministry published a draft grading system for “atmospheric environmental performance in key industries”, including assessment of “significant…carbon emission reduction effects”, noted International Energy Net. China will also set up an “eco-police” mechanism in 2027, China Daily said.
• INNOVATION INITIATIVE: The National Energy Administration issued a call for the “preliminary establishment of a new energy system that is clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient” in the next five years, reported BJX News. The plan also noted: “Those who take the lead in [energy technology] innovation will gain the initiative.”

Spotlight 

Interview: How ‘mid-level bureaucrats’ are helping to shape Chinese climate policy

Local officials are viewed as relatively weak actors in China’s governance structure. 

However, a new book – “Implementing a low-carbon future: climate leadership in Chinese cities” – argues that these officials play an important role in designing innovative and enduring climate policy.

Carbon Brief interviews author Weila Gong, non-resident scholar at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy’s 21st Century China Center and visiting scholar at UC Davis, on her research. 

Below are highlights from the conversation. The full interview is published on the Carbon Brief website.

Carbon Brief: You’ve just written a book about climate policy in Chinese cities. Could you explain why subnational governments are important for China’s climate policy in general?

Weila Gong: China is the world’s largest carbon emitter [and] over 85% of China’s carbon emissions come from cities.

We tend to think that officials at the provincial, city and township levels are barriers for environmental protection, because they are focused on promoting economic growth.

But I observed these actors participating in China’s low-carbon city pilot. I was surprised to see so many cities wanted to participate, even though there was no specific evaluation system that would reward their efforts.

CB: Could you help us understand the mindset of these bureaucrats? How do local-level officials design policies in China? 

WG: We tend to focus on top political figures, such as mayors or [municipal] party secretaries. But mid-level bureaucrats [are usually the] ones implementing low-carbon policies. 

Mid-level local officials saw [the low-carbon city pilot] as a way to help their bosses get promoted, which in turn would help them advance their own career. As such, they [aimed to] create unique, innovative and visible policy actions to help draw the attention [of their superiors]. 

They are also often more interested in climate issues if it is in the interest of their agency or local government. 

Another motivation is accessing finance [by using] pilot programmes, if their ideas impress the central-level government.

CB: Could you give an example of what drives innovative local climate policies? 

WG: National-level policies and pilot programme schemes provide openings for local governments to think about how and whether they should engage more in addressing climate change. 

By experiment[ing] with policy at a local level, local governments help national-level officials develop responses to emerging policy challenges. 

Local carbon emission trading systems (ETSs) are an example. 

One element that made the Shenzhen ETS successful is “entrepreneurial bureaucrats” [who have the ability to design, push through and maintain new local-level climate policies].

Even though we might think local officials are constrained in terms of policy or financial resources, they often have the leverage and space to build coalitions…and know how to mobilise political support.

CB: What needs to be done to strengthen sub-national climate policy making?

WG: It’s very important to have groups of personnel trained on climate policy…[Often] climate change is only one of local officials’ day-to-day responsibilities. We need full-time staff to follow through on policies from the beginning right up to implementation.

Secondly, while almost all cities have made carbon-peaking plans, one area in which the government can make further progress is data.

Most Chinese cities haven’t yet established regular carbon accounting systems, [and only have access to] inadequate statistics. Local agencies can’t always access detailed data [held at the central level]…[while] much of the company-level data is self-reported.

Finally, China will always need local officials willing to try new policy instruments. Ensuring they have the conditions to do this is very important.

Watch, read, listen

BREAKNECK SPEED: In a conversation with the Zero podcast, tech analyst Dan Wang outlined how an “engineering mindset” may have given China the edge in developing clean-energy systems in comparison to the US. 

QUESTION OF CURRENCY: Institute of Finance and Sustainability president Ma Jun and Climate Bonds Initiative CEO Sean Kidney examined how China’s yuan-denominated loans can “ease the climate financing crunch” in the South China Morning Post.

DRIVING CHANGE: Deutsche Welle broadcast a report on how affordable cleantech from China is accelerating the energy transition in global south countries. 

EXPOSING LOOPHOLES: Economic news outlet Jiemian investigated how a scandal involving the main developer of pumped storage capacity in China revealed “regulatory loopholes” in constructing such projects.

---

$180 billion

The amount of outward direct investment Chinese companies have committed to cleantech projects overseas since 2023, according to a new report by thinktank Climate Energy Finance.

---

New science 

• A new study looking at battery electric trucks across China, Europe and the US showed they “can reach 27-58% reductions in lifecycle CO2 emissions compared with diesel trucks” | Nature Reviews Clean Technology
• “Shortcomings remain” in China’s legal approach to offshore carbon capture, utilisation and storage, such as a lack of “specialised” legal frameworks | Climate Policy

China Briefing is written by Anika Patel and edited by Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to [email protected]