There has been limited media coverage to date about the climate-change implications of the Brexit deal agreed between the UK and EU on Christmas Eve. The Guardian reports the views of the left-leaning thinktank, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), which says that “UK workers’ rights and climate and other environmental protections are at serious risk of being eroded under the Brexit trade deal”. The IPPR adds: “The protections it offers on labour and environmental standards are also surprisingly weak and appear to leave considerable scope for a UK government to weaken EU-derived protections. This leaves protections for workers, climate and the environment at serious risk of being eroded.” A news feature in the Independent quotes various experts including Dr Markus Gehring, a sustainable development lawyer and expert at the Centre for European Legal Studies at the University of Cambridge, who says: “This trade deal contains the most ambitious climate language I’ve seen in any trade deal. The EU has a history of including references to the Paris Agreement, but this deal takes it one step further and makes it a make-or-break issue.” Gehring adds, says the Independent, that the deal’s fine print also dictates that not taking sufficient action to reach net-zero would be in direct breach of the trade agreement: “A material breach now also includes breaching your climate ambition. In my view this is the most significant element. It means if either of the two sides, the EU or the UK, completely deviate from their climate objectives, the entire agreement could be suspended or even terminated, depending on the seriousness of the breach.”

Bloomberg notes that the new Brexit trade deal allows a chance for the UK to “tie its carbon market with the European Union’s Emissions Trading System”. It adds: “The EU system will shrink about 11% as a result of the UK leaving. Linking the two would help both the UK and EU send long-term signals to polluting industry about the seriousness of goals to zero-out emissions by 2050. Business groups have pushed for a UK carbon market with securities that can be exchanged with the EU system, which would make it similar to what’s been in place for British polluters since the market started in 2005…Having a deal in place could mean there’s enough political goodwill to effectively merge the two markets shortly after they officially split. It’s a good sign for the market and has been reflected in carbon prices just before the deal was announced. While the agreement sets some general conditions on carbon pricing, it stops short of providing clarity on when a link could happen. British negotiators committed to a system that’s at least as strong as the EU’s cap-and-trade program. UK companies remain subject to their 2020 EU emissions caps and must fulfil their obligations to surrender allowances by 30 April, 2021.”

Meanwhile, in other UK political news, the Times reports that Alok Sharma has “offered to resign as business secretary to take on a new full-time role preparing for Britain’s chairmanship of a United Nations climate change conference this year”. It adds: “Mr Sharma, who holds both jobs, has told Boris Johnson that he would rather give up being business secretary than step down as the prime minister’s envoy before the COP26 meeting in Glasgow in November.” A cabinet reshuffle is expected later this month. A separate Times story says that, according to “leading economists”, “Rishi Sunak will unveil a carbon tax [in 2021] as he attempts to repair the battered public finances”. The article continues: “Tax increases, possibly towards the end of [2021] are expected as growth recovers strongly, mass unemployment fails to materialise, inflation hovers at about 2%, the Bank of England continues printing money and negative interest rates are avoided, the survey suggests. Of 73 respondents to a question on taxes, 57 predicted that an increase would be announced if not implemented next year, with green levies considered most likely…With the UK hosting the COP26 global conference on climate change next year, green taxes were an obvious theme. ‘Green recovery is likely a focus of fiscal activities…and may be embedded into a broader industrial strategy,’ Thiemo Fetzer, an economics professor at Warwick University, said. The government has already laid out plans for a ‘green industrial revolution’ with £12bn for schemes involving offshore wind, hydrogen fuel, carbon capture and other environmental projects. It must also replace the European Union’s carbon trading scheme now that the Brexit transition period is over.”

The Independent covers comments made by Ed Miliband, Labour’s shadow business secretary, who “has called on the people of Britain to deliver ‘the biggest climate mobilisation we have ever seen’ to make 2021 ‘a year of hope’ for the future of the world”. Miliband adds: “I don’t want to be rude about Boris Johnson, but this is going to require attention to detail and focus, not just grand rhetoric. He’s going to have to do the hard diplomatic yards. It’s not just about sailing in and making comments about Britain being ‘the Saudi Arabia of wind’ and then forgetting about it.” Finally, BBC News covers the end-of-year report by the Green Alliance which concludes that the “prime minister’s bold promises to protect the climate are not yet backed by policies and cash”.

The Independent notes that “Indonesia and India are among major greenhouse gas emitters set to miss a key deadline for strengthening their efforts to tackle the climate crisis”. Under the Paris Agreement, parties said they would submit updated climate plans, which are called “nationally determined contributions”, to the UN by the end of 2020. The Independent says: “As 2020 draws to a close, it is looking more likely than ever that most countries will miss the deadline for submitting new plans to the UN.” Several countries, including China, have said they aim to increase their climate pledges for the decade ahead, but have yet to formally register the pledge on the UN’s website. Prof Niklas Höhne, a climate scientist working with Climate Action Tracker, tells the Independent: “It is important to differentiate between updating the target and increasing ambition. Those who updated but did not increase ambition include Russia and Vietnam, which both still do not have to implement new action to meet even the new targets. Brazil even went backwards with an accounting trick and now has a less ambitious target than before.”

Meanwhile, Reuters reports on a new investment deal struck between the EU and China “that will give European companies greater access to Chinese markets and help redress what Europe sees as unbalanced economic ties”. The newswire adds: “The deal includes commitments on climate change and labour rights, including forced labour, a first for China. Commitments are reciprocal, but the EU market is already far more open. Brussels has given some ground in energy, but says its offer to China consists chiefly of guaranteeing the existing openness.” An earlier Reuters story noted how the talks had been held up over a disagreement over nuclear power. AFP has a story about how Germany is “aiming for a green start to 2021 by shutting down a coal-fired power plant and slapping a CO2 price on transport, but critics say the efforts aren’t enough to combat climate change”. It adds: “From 1 January, 2021 the government will charge 25 euros ($30) per tonne of carbon dioxide emissions released by the transport and heating sectors. The pricetag was raised from the government’s initially proposed 10 euros per tonne – a number widely slammed as too low by Germany’s Green party, environmentalists and scientists. The price will increase to 55 euros by 2025, and will be decided at auction from 2026.”

Finally, NBC News reports that the “Covid-19 relief bill that US president Donald Trump signed…includes legislation to fund investments in clean energy technologies and regulate climate-warming greenhouse gases – a step that offers some hope for the bigger climate ambitions of president-elect Joe Biden”.

New end-of-year data published by the National Grid shows that the UK’s “carbon intensity” – a measure of the environmental impact of generating electricity – has dropped 60% in the six years to 2019 and is on track to record another low for 2020, reports Bloomberg. The news outlet adds: “The figures show the success of government efforts to pare back emissions and push coal plants off the grid, part of a broader plan to zero-out net fossil-fuel pollution by the middle of the century. With electricity demand set to double by 2050, lawmakers need to make sure there’s enough clean sources of power to supply the grid as environmental rules tighten.” The Independent also covers the story, saying: “National Grid’s figures indicate the UK is on track for another new low in 2020 after a 15% reduction in carbon intensity compared to last year. In 2013, each kilowatt hour of electricity resulted in 529 grams of CO2 compared to just 181g so far this year. The government’s target is to reach 100g per kWh by 2030.” The outlet quotes Rob Rome, National Grid’s head of national control: “2020 has been a record-breaking year for Great Britain’s electricity system…We saw the highest ever level of solar generation in April, the longest period of coal-free operation between April and June, and the greenest ever month in May.”

A few days earlier several publications, including the Independent, Guardian and the Hill, covered news that Boxing Day (26 December) saw a new record set for wind power, with it being the first 24-hour period where wind farms supplied more than half of the country’s electricity, according to data from Drax Electric Insights.

Meanwhile, the Guardian has a feature about the construction of a vast wind farm in the North Sea: “More than 80 miles from land, hundreds of the world’s most powerful wind turbines have begun reaching into the air as construction progresses on the biggest windfarm ever built. Almost 200 turbines, each almost as tall as the Eiffel tower, will soon rise above the submerged Doggerland to populate an expanse of sea as large as North Yorkshire itself.” And BBC News covers how the bird charity RSPB has criticised a government decision to permit an offshore wind farm “expected to harm birds feeding in the North Sea”.

Several outlets look to the year ahead and anticipate what it could mean for action on climate change. Justin Rowlatt, BBC News’s chief environment correspondent, says 2021 will be a “crunch year” for climate change, adding: “In the spirit of New Year’s optimism, here’s why I believe 2021 could confound the doomsters and see a breakthrough in global ambition on climate…Glasgow 2021 gives us a forum at which…carbon cuts can be ratcheted up…Renewables are now the cheapest energy ever…The falling cost of renewable and the growing public pressure for action on climate is also transforming attitudes in business.” Similarly, BBC Radio 4’s Tom Heap, who fronts a new podcast called 39 Ways to Save the Planet, explains in a piece for BBC News why “I’m feeling hopeful about the environment in 2021”. An editorial in the Financial Times lists “reasons for hope in 2021” in which it says: “A critical mass has been building behind fighting climate change…China, the world’s biggest polluter, committed in September to reducing carbon emissions to net zero by 2060. The People’s Republic is just the latest among many to set such a target. These pledges on their own will not do much to stop global warming. But they demonstrate that the world is taking the problem more seriously, and that advances in technology — renewable energy sources and batteries alike – are convincing governments a transition is less costly than once feared.” A preview of 2021 in the New Scientist says it is a “crucial year for action on climate change”. The team of climate reporters at the New York Times also looks ahead to 2021 when Joe Biden will take over as US president: “As much as possible needs to become electric: cars, trucks, home and building heating, and big parts of industry. Then, new wind and solar power must be brought online to meet that increased need, and the energy grid needs to grow tremendously to accommodate the new supply. It’s a huge challenge, and the Biden administration will need to figure out how to build the political will to get it done.” EurActiv looks at the EU’s “climate ambitions” in 2021: “Climate policy will again take centre stage in 2021, with the European Commission expected to table a mammoth package of green laws in June, before the COP26 UN climate summit in Glasgow caps off a year packed with milestones for European climate policy in December.” Likewise, Clean Energy Wire in Germany says that the autumn’s “climate election” is set to dominate Germany’s energy transition agenda.

An editorial in the Sunday Times says “the need to tackle the climate crisis existed long before the pandemic, but now that we have discovered the hard way what nature can throw at us, the urgency is all the greater”. It continues: “Boris Johnson’s recent 10-point plan for a green industrial revolution was welcomed by some, but judged to fall well short by others…Governments have shirked the simple raising of fuel duty for a decade, showing an unwillingness to embrace unpopular decisions for the good of the environment. That needs to change — and soon.” The Sunday Times magazine also carries an “exclusive” interview with Greta Thunberg to mark her 18th birthday. BBC News also has a video recording of a Zoom conversation between Thunberg and author Margaret Atwood.

An editorial in the Financial Times says that “climate efforts have entered a tricky new phase”. It continues: “There is a vast gap between the safer climate being promised and the policies in place to achieve it…Unfortunately for the British hosts of the COP26 UN climate talks in Glasgow in November, the international system of negotiating climate action has itself become part of the problem…The UK must deploy all its diplomatic might to make COP26 a turning point. Instead of another unwieldy gathering marked by lofty speeches and distant targets, the meeting should be used to drive co-ordination of policies such as meaningful pricing and regulation of carbon; phasing out coal and ending the fossil fuel subsidies that G20 nations vowed to start eliminating back in 2009. Governments of all sizes must follow the lead of Mr Biden, who is preparing to make climate change a priority across his incoming US administration, rather than consigning it to specialist agencies. The good news is that global cost estimates for shifting to a zero carbon economy have collapsed, though fierce headwinds remain. The pandemic is far from over, not least in the UK. Yet if the nation that was the birthplace of the industrial revolution can seriously advance a zero-carbon revolution, it will provide a legacy lasting decades or even centuries to come.”

Meanwhile, an editorial in the New York Times says that “as president-elect Joe Biden rolls out his climate and environment team, it is worth recalling, if only to grasp the distance between then and now, the hopeless bunch president-elect Donald Trump presented us with four years ago”. It concludes: “Extracting the necessary trillions from a potentially divided Congress is the tallest of tall orders. The betting now is on two possible legislative paths, maybe both: a stimulus bill with all sorts of green investments tucked into it, along the lines of the 2009 Obama stimulus but much bigger; and, after that, a big infrastructure bill targeted at projects that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Mr Biden’s strategy is still in the making. But whatever path he chooses, progress in this still-fractured country will require all the energy and smart ideas his team can muster and all the negotiating skills Mr Biden himself has acquired in a half-century of public service.”

Separately, the New York Times has a comment piece by news and features reporter Jonah Engel Bromwich looking back at the impact of the controversial (it was heavily critiqued by climate scientists) and yet much-shared “Deep Adaptation” paper published two years ago: “This paper helped rewrite the direction of British universities, played a major role in reshaping the missions of climate organisations and religious institutions, had a significant impact on British activism and has been translated into at least nine languages. It made its author into something of a climate change messiah.”

A new study investigates how extreme temperatures in China are expected to change between the present day (1994-2011), and the mid-21st century (2045-2055) using the moderate warming scenario RCP4.5. The study finds that there will be an increase in the temperatures of the hottest days, warmest nights, coldest days, and coldest nights. They also predict a higher frequency of “summer days” and “tropical nights”, and a lower frequency of “ice days” and “frost days”. These changes are mainly driven by “increased greenhouse gas concentrations and enhanced water vapour in the atmosphere”, the researchers say, as well as “decreased aerosol emissions over Asia”.

New research tests the assertion the Greenland glaciers have been retreating since the mid-1900s due to the intrusion of warm Atlantic waters into fjords by investigating the retreat mechanisms of 226 “marine-terminating” glaciers. The research identifies “74 glaciers in deep fjords with Atlantic water controlling 49% of the mass loss that retreated when warming increased undercutting by 48%”. This suggests that ice sheet projections that exclude ocean-induced undercutting “may underestimate mass loss by at least a factor of two”, the researchers say.