China’s government has released a “new ‌economic decarbonisation plan that seeks to put its carbon intensity reduction programme back on track, mainly by relying on its booming renewable sector to limit coal consumption and rein in emissions”, reports Reuters, adding: “It also outlined targets to reach peak coal ​and replace 30m metric tons per year of coal with renewables, but did not put further overall limits on coal consumption.”

Going into more detail, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post says that China’s premier Li Qiang has outlined the “broad strokes of the next five-year plan in the government work report” during a speech in Beijing at the annual “two sessions” meeting of the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s top legislature. The newspaper adds: “The report said overall energy production capacity would reach the equivalent of 5.8bn tonnes of standard coal by 2030, up from the goal of 4.6bn tonnes set in the 14th five-year plan. Actual capacity at the end of last year was 5.13bn tonnes, according to data released by the National Energy Administration…In line with Beijing’s pledge to see carbon emissions peak by 2030…the country plans to slash carbon emissions per unit of GDP by a total of 17% over the next five years. This year’s reduction target has been set at 3.8%, following a 5.1% reduction last year. China aims to increase the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption to 25% by 2030, up from 21.7% in 2025.” The state-run newspaper China Daily adds: “China will establish a national fund for low-carbon transition as part of its efforts to boost the green and low-carbon economy…The fund will be used to foster new growth drivers such as hydrogen power and green fuels, the draft report reveals.” Bloomberg’s reporting says: “China, the world’s top polluter, set a cautious new five-year climate target, frustrating hopes for tighter policy that would drive the nation to peak carbon emissions well before President Xi Jinping’s 2030 deadline.” BBC News says: “China has cut its annual economic growth target to a range of 4.5%-5%, the lowest expansion goal since 1991 as it grapples with challenges both at home and abroad.” The Financial Times’s coverage says “China is aiming for global technological supremacy in its next five-year plan”.

Meanwhile, Lou Qinjian, a spokesperson for the NPC, said that China’s environmental code will “only include some general directional rules” for addressing climate change, says China Daily. Lou adds that China currently has “no dedicated law” to tackle climate change, according to the newspaper. Christoph Nedopil Wang, a professor with Australia’s Griffith University, says that China’s “predictability” for green development helps the country “solidify its dominance in global green supply chains”, according to China Daily. State news agency Xinhua says that China’s “green foundation has become more distinct” over the past five years. An editorial by the state-supporting Global Times claims the world feels “reassured” when studying China’s “policymaking” on climate change. 21st Century Business Herald says “coordination of AI computing power and green electricity” will be a keyword at the “two sessions”. BJX News publishes an article discussing China’s energy trend as shown at the local-level “two sessions”.

MORE ON CHINA

• The focus of the NEA’s “rural energy work” has shifted to “promoting the development and utilisation of rural wind and solar power”, reports BJX News.
• Guardian podcast: “Will China own the green energy future?”
• China is “quietly dominating” long-duration energy storage, which is “badly needed” amid the rapid growth of renewables, reports Bloomberg.
• BJX News says that China’s new capacity pricing mechanism will focus on how much reliable power capacity a given technology can provide.
• The Middle East crisis may remind China that “heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels represents a structural vulnerability”, reports SCMP.
• People’s Daily: “The power of planning: Chinese NEVs rewrite the global automotive landscape.”
• Hannah Ritchie in her By The Numbers substack: “Does China have a huge electricity advantage over the US?”

Energy analysts and politicians have argued that the impact of the Iran war on oil and gas prices shows “renewables are the path to energy security”, reports Climate Home News. It covers two online briefings focused on the Iran war and the disruption that has set oil and gas prices surging. It quotes Seb Kennedy, founding editor of EnergyFlux.News, who told journalists the war is a “bonanza for US LNG exporters and a catastrophe for everyone else”. Relatedly, the Financial Times reports that the Gulf’s biggest oil producers are “facing a race against time to resume exports before their storage tanks fill up”, with Saudi Arabia estimated to have just two weeks before it would have to cut production. The Times covers the “scepticism and confusion about both the insurance and escort promises” from US president Donald Trump for ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. The Guardian lists the areas where the Middle East crisis is driving up prices, including petrol and heating oil. The Times notes the “soaring price of kerosene” due to the crisis and its impact on jet fuel. Reuters covers comments by Russian president Vladimir Putin that the country could “halt” gas supplies to Europe amid the energy price spike triggered by the Iran crisis. 

MORE ON ENERGY CRISIS

• The Guardian and the Financial Times both cover the impact on fertiliser shipments from the region and the potential knock-on impact on global food production. 
• Axios analyses the increase on oil prices.
• The Times looks at the history of oil price shocks and their impact on “derailing [the] world economy”. 
• Politico reports UK chancellor Rachel Reeves has had an “audience” with oil and gas sector representatives as it plans for the Iran conflict to last for weeks. It adds: “Energy secretary Ed Miliband has held talks with representatives from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, as well as energy giants BP and Shell about global energy markets.”

The European Commission has proposed a new “Buy EU” plan to boost domestic low-carbon industries, reports the Guardian. It continues that the draft regulation – called the Industrial Accelerator Act – sets out the “demands for EU-made and low-carbon content on bodies spending public money”. EuroNews adds that the act would set out “Made in Europe” thresholds, including that 70% of EVs, 25% of aluminium and 25% of cement must be from the EU, although it includes notable exceptions for most battery components. Agence France-Presse reports that the package aims to bring the manufacturing share of EU GDP up to 20% by 2035, from 14% in 2024. The Financial Times adds that the EU will offer to include the UK, Japan and other like-minded partners in its “Made in Europe” manufacturing targets, “in a bid to shield its strategic sectors from unfair competition from China”. The South China Morning Post reports that the EU’s plan aims to reduce dependence on China for “strategic” sectors such as EVs and solar panels. It adds that the bloc also lists many low-carbon technologies as being subject to “intense competition” with China.

MORE ON EUROPE

• Reuters: “Italy says it could reactivate coal-powered plants if Gulf crisis worsens.” 
• Le Monde reports that France has had an “unprecedented” winter, with rainfall 35% above average. 

Brazil’s upper chamber has approved the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, which was signed in January this year, reports El País. The agreement – which “commits” signatories to “effectively implement the Paris Agreement and to cooperate on the climate aspects of trade”, but has seen farmers in the EU protesting about its feared impact on “cheap food imports” – has also been ratified by the parliaments of Argentina and Paraguay. Although the agreement’s entry into force depends on the EU, the European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen has stated that “the pact will be applied provisionally, without waiting for the judges to rule, since it’s a ‘strategic’ need”. The Spanish outlet adds that the agreement could enter into force in Brazil in May.

MORE ON LATIN AMERICA

• Brazil’s environment minister Marina Silva has called for the “inclusion” of climate change in this year’s upcoming general election according to Folha de Sao Paulo.
• Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy projects that 85% of the nation’s transport sector will be powered by “renewable sources” by 2055, reports Latam Mobility.
• Argentina’s president Javier Milei has set out “environmental reforms”, including laws on native forests and aquaculture, plus “integration to international agreements, such as the EU-Mercosur agreement” (see above), reports La Nación.
• Dialogue Earth covers the “rush for rare earths” in Latin America due to the large reserves estimated in Brazil, Chile and Argentina.
• Columnist Lorena Rivera writes for Mexico’s Excélsior that droughts, high temperatures and wildfires in the country are “cyclical and so are structural oversights”.

Global sea levels are already “much higher” than most scientific assessments assume, making coasts more vulnerable to rising oceans, reports the Financial Times. It states that a new study from the Wageningen University in the Netherlands has found that sea levels are, on average, 30cm higher globally than previous estimates. The Guardian adds that in some areas of the global south, such as south-east Asia and the Indo-Pacific, sea levels may be 100-150cm higher than thought. It says levels have until now “been underestimated due to inaccurate modelling”. The Associated Press notes that the researchers studied hundreds of scientific papers and hazard assessments, finding that around 90% of them underestimated baseline coastal water heights. The New York Times reports that the study suggests “hundreds of millions more people worldwide are already living dangerously close to the rising ocean than Western scientists had previously estimated”. The study is also covered by Vox, the Daily Mail and others.

Executives at companies in the US developing AI have pledged to cover the energy costs created by their data centres, as the US administration tries to respond to voter backlash over utility bills, reports the Washington Post. It notes that US president Donald Trump announced the voluntary initiative during his state of the union address and that companies will not face penalties if they do not comply. The outlet covers an event with the president at the White House yesterday that saw executives from Oracle, OpenAI and Microsoft sign the “Ratepayer Protection Pledge”. Politico notes that, in signing, the companies agreed to build, provide or buy any power their data centre infrastructure needs, rather than drawing it from the grid. The Financial Times adds that independent power supplies for data centres are most often gas turbines, which are “in short supply”. The New York Times explores why tech firms are working with Trump on data centres and energy costs.

MORE ON THE US

• Climate Home News covers confirmation that the US will exit the UN climate convention in February 2027.
• The New York Times looks at the concerns around the fate of the state’s 2019 climate law.

In the Financial Times, senior trade writer Alan Beattie argues that, in light of the Iran war, a “growth plan of renewable energy and diversified trade is far better than guzzling fossil fuels and aligning with the US”. Beattie explores the impact of the crisis on oil prices, plus how it sits within the “erosion” of US geoeconomic leadership. He quips: “Whatever Trump does next, unless he actually starts carpet-bombing solar farms, it’s unlikely to threaten a development model based on renewable energy.” He continues to list a number of recent international interventions by the Trump administration, adding that “almost every action the Trump administration takes in the area of geoeconomics screams ‘diversify and insulate’ at its trading partners”.

Meanwhile, writing in the Daily Telegraph, Octopus Energy’s Greg Jackson says: “The UK needs more sovereign energy and this requires practical, pragmatic decisions. Ideology, wishful thinking, nostalgia and culture wars don’t provide actual solutions. We should use what’s available from the North Sea. While the price is set globally, there’s no point shipping gas from the other side of the world when we have it here. We’re kidding ourselves if we think this is a panacea – it’s 20 years since the North Sea could meet all our needs – we’ve depleted the most abundant reserves and the remainder will be less productive and more expensive. But it makes sense to use what we have whilst we’re so dependent on gas.”

MORE COMMENT ON IRAN WAR

• In Bloomberg, columnist Javier Blas writes that oil is not the most precious commodity in the Iran war, concluding that “oil is essential; but water is irreplaceable”.
• In Climate Home News, Lidy Nacpil from the Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Development explores how the Middle East crisis increases Southeast Asia’s coal risk.
• In the Times, climate-sceptic columnist Juliet Samuels claims that “consumers pay the price as governments pursue net-zero policies” amid rising gas prices.

“Climate deniers expected more resilience” to the Trump administration’s “fossil fuel blitz” in the US, but “Democrats, billionaires and activists have gone silent”, writes climate researcher Rei Takver in the Guardian, in an article published in partnership with DeSmog. She quotes Robert Brulle, a professor of environment and society at Brown University, who has said in relation to the recent repeal of the 2009 “endangerment finding”, that the “Trump administration just marched in and destroyed the crown jewel of climate science in the US…And nothing happened. There wasn’t even a whimper.” Takver details shifts in position of key climate figures in the US under the current Trump administration and notes that the “growing “climate hush” is not limited to the US – a “silence about the climate crisis has expanded across the globe”.

MORE COMMENT

• An editorial in the Sri Lankan Guardian discusses how geopolitics and climate change threaten water, as well as the solutions that exist.
• An editorial in the climate-sceptic comment pages of the Wall Street Journal questions California’s “cap-and-tax policy”, which requires oil and gas refiners to cut their CO2 and whether it is “driving up” the state’s dependence on foreign oil. 
• In his latest New York Times newsletter, David Wallace-Wells argues that data centres are a “distraction”: “The real fight is elsewhere.”
• In the Guardian, architect Hans Larsson writes that “clean, green cities and resurgent industry” remain a “fantasy” following the new “Made in Europe” regulation (see above)

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Molly Lempriere, with contributions from Henry Zhang, Anika Patel and Yanine Quiroz. It was edited by Leo Hickman.

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