The world’s usage of fossil fuels could begin to drop by 2030 as a result of China’s “rapid adoption of renewables and its increasing reliance on electricity”, Bloomberg reports, citing a new study by thinktank Ember. The outlet adds that “in 2023, one-quarter of emerging countries had leapfrogged the US in terms of the electrification of their economies, helped by the availability of cheap Chinese clean-tech, according to Ember”. The New York Times also covers the story, quoting Richard Black, editor of the Ember report, saying that China is “changing the energy landscape not just domestically but in countries across the world”. State-supporting newspaper the Global Times covers the findings and says China’s transition is “reshaping global energy dynamics”. Climate Home News says China is “on course to peak fossil fuel power as soon as this year”, according to the report.

MORE ON CHINA

• China’s industry minister Li Lecheng says that irrational competition in electric vehicles (EVs) and solar panels could “destroy the industry overnight” and China “must never allow such things to happen”, according to BJX News.
• SCMP publishes an article saying China’s decarbonisation is “industrialisation-driven”, with low-carbon technologies “fuelling” its economy.
• The Financial Times: “EU weighs sanctions on China for Russian energy imports.”
• Chinese company BYD says it will produce all EVs for Europe locally by 2028, helping it avoid EU tariffs, Reuters reports.
• China Daily publishes a comment by Yandry Kurniawan, assistant professor at Universitas Indonesia, under the headline: “BRICS can facilitate ASEAN’s green transition.”

EU nations will discuss changes to the role of imported carbon credits over the next decade as part of a push for a “rapid deal” on the bloc’s 2040 climate goal, reports Bloomberg. Citing “a document”, it says that Denmark, which currently holds the EU presidency, is open to amending the share of international credits that countries would be allowed under the proposed target to cut emissions to 90% below 1990 levels by 2040. The article says: “The goal is one of the most contentious issues on the EU agenda, with members divided on the pace of pollution cuts and how to protect their economies.” It adds that a “larger role for cheaper imported credits could potentially alleviate concerns among some states about the cost of the green drive”. Reuters reports that countries remain split on how ambitious the 2040 emissions target should be, “putting into doubt plans to strike a deal next week”.  

MORE ON EU

• Politico reports that the EU steel industry is “demand[ing] quick and deep action to avoid total dependence on dirty imports”. 
• Bloomberg covers a new report that finds Spain’s “saturated grid” could hold back its ambitions for artificial intelligence.
• The Financial Times takes stock of the EU’s progress on the Draghi plan, designed to “revitalis[e] the bloc’s flagging economy”. [See the Carbon Brief Q&A on the plan.]
• Reuters looks at the role of Norway’s Green party, which helped secure re-election for the Labour-led government – and wants the oil sector to be phased out.
• The Financial Times reports that ExxonMobil expects the EU to “sign multi-decade contracts for US gas as part of a pledge to buy $750bn of American energy”.
• BusinessGreen covers a call from 150 businesses for the European Commission to “stand firm” on its 2035 goal for zero emission cars and vans. 

Attempts to tackle climate change by “manipulating the Arctic and Antarctic environment are dangerous, unlikely to work and could distract from the need to ditch fossil fuels”, reports BBC News, citing a group of “more than 40 researchers”. The article says that polar “geoengineering” techniques designed to cool the planet through artificially thickening sea-ice or releasing reflective particles into the atmosphere have “gained attention”. In its coverage, the Guardian says polar geoengineering schemes are “so flawed that no amount of research could resolve them and that they treat only the symptoms and not the causes of the climate emergency”. The Times notes that the UK government is spending £10m to see if Arctic ice could be thickened by pumping seawater onto the surface over winter months. Sky News quotes Prof Martin Siegert, a glaciologist at the University of Exeter, who led the new assessment, saying the proposals are “quite dangerous actually because some people might rely on it as a way to cure the planet, but we just don’t think it’s viable”. 

On Tuesday, Ethiopia inaugurated Africa’s largest dam to “boost the economy, end frequent blackouts and support the growth of electric vehicle development in a country that has banned the importation of gasoline-powered vehicles”, reports the Associated Press. The Guardian reports that the dam could “transform” the country’s energy sector, but “aggravate tensions” with neighbouring Egypt. The article quotes Ethiopian prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, who said during an address: “To our brothers, Ethiopia built the dam to prosper, to electrify the entire region and to change the history of black people. It is absolutely not to harm its brothers.” Bloomberg notes that the dam will have a capacity of 5,150 megawatts, with Ethiopia targeting revenue of $427m from exporting the dam’s electricity this year.

MORE ON AFRICA

• The Standard reports that calls for climate investment, not just aid, are continuing to dominate talks at the Africa climate summit, while Mongabay looks at the “homegrown solutions” at the summit that require investment. 
• The Independent reports from the summit: “Aid cuts cast long shadow over key Africa climate talks.”

Rescuers and army troops evacuated more than 25,000 people from Jalalpur Pirwala city in Pakistan’s Punjab “overnight”, as “rising rivers threatened to flood the region”, the Associated Press reports. Evacuations are also underway in southern Sindh, it continues, where more than 100,000 people in vulnerable settlements along the Indus River have already been relocated “as water continues to flow downstream”. Across the border in India, Mongabay reports that more than 1,900 villages remain submerged, with crop damage on 400,000 acres of land. According to the Tribune, the Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh “received a whopping 72% more than normal rainfall” in August. While one Dialogue Earth story looks at whether cloudbursts are being made “scapegoats” for India’s floods, a Scroll.in feature points to a “confluence of warming temperatures” in the Himalaya’s highest ranges and the Arabian Sea as a “key factor” in the intensified rainfall. BBC News reports that “global warming means that rains are increasingly being reported in higher reaches” where it mostly snowed in the past.

MORE ON INDIA

• The Times of India reports that prime minister Narendra Modi will “skip” the Brics leaders’ summit chaired by Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on “ways to deal with Trumps tariffs” and “efforts to boost multilateralism”. 
• Reuters reports that India has “cancelled grid access” for nearly 17 gigawatts (GW) of renewable projects to “prioritise connections for those that are operational or nearing completion”. 
• India has cut taxes on renewables and raised them for coal, while simultaneously doing away with a key coal levy, according to Down to Earth.
• The New Indian Express reports that India’s climate ministry has revised rules for its “green credit programme” and carved out exemptions for defence and critical mineral projects in its main forest act, according to the Hindustan Times. 
• Another Reuters story reports that India is working to secure rare-earth samples from Myanmar “with the assistance of a powerful rebel group.” 
• The Leaflet looks at what it will take for India to “finally innovate a legal regime” to protect its outdoor, heat-stressed workers.

New analysis has found that the US’s fossil-fuel industry currently receives nearly $31bn in subsidies per year, reports the Guardian. It says campaign group Oil Change International undertook the analysis, which found that this figure has more than doubled since 2017. The article says that the figure is likely a “vast understatement, due to the difficulty of quantifying the financial gains from some government supports and to a lack of transparency and reliable data from government sources”. It notes that Oil Change International has warned that these “handouts” pose a “massive barrier to decarbonisation”. The article quotes Collin Rees, US program manager at Oil Change International and the primary author of the new analysis, who says: “These subsidies allow for new production that would not otherwise occur. They also, to an enormous extent, go to lining the pockets of shareholders and investors and fossil fuel executives.”

MORE ON US

• An investigation by the Associated Press finds that major disaster declarations are taking longer under the Trump administration, even as disasters have become “more frequent and intense because of climate change”. 
• Reuters reports that the US Environmental Protection Agency is exploring ways to speed up permitting for AI infrastructure.
• Bloomberg covers the US’s wind and solar sectors, which are continuing to break records, with “new highs…emerging on an almost weekly basis across the country”.

In a frontpage story, the Times covers new polling it commissioned that it says finds the number of people who think the dangers of global warming are exaggerated has increased by more than 50% in the past four years. It adds that one in four voters now think concerns over climate change are “not as real as scientists have said, amid growing public concern at the cost of the government’s net-zero policies”. [Polling experts have criticised the framing of the Times coverage, noting that the majority of the public still back net-zero.] Alongside the results of the research, the Times has a piece discussing the focus group it ran as part of the analysis. The Sun also covers the polling, reporting that “only one in four voters thought Labour’s green initiatives could stimulate economic growth”.

Politico reports that separate polling by thinktank More in Common and the NGO Climate Outreach has found that the number of people who think the UK’s net-zero target will be good for the country “vastly outnumbers” those who think it will be negative, at 48% to 16%. BusinessGreen reports that the polling of 7,000 people found the vast majority support net-zero, although “deep disillusionment with politics and the cost of living remains”. 

MORE ON UK 

• The Daily Express covers accusations by climate-sceptic Reform deputy leader Richard Tice that energy secretary Ed Miliband is “deceiving the British public” by having a gas boiler.
• The Guardian reports that the area of England where nature is well protected is in decline. 
• Bloomberg: “UK’s £240bn green power plan runs into a political storm.”
• The Daily Mail covers calls for Drax’s CEO to be sacked, following claims its power station is as “toxic as tobacco”.
• A feature in the Daily Telegraph claims that “Miliband’s net-zero dreams may not survive the budget”.

A Lex opinion piece in the Financial Times argues that “Beijing officials have called time on a bruising price war”, which has been “taking a toll” on Chinese EV giant BYD. The article notes that the company’s second-quarter figures missed forecasts for the first time in years, with analysts also cutting estimates for 2027 sales by as much as 30%. The article concludes: “The risk is that local governments that support smaller carmaking enterprises far from Beijing maintain pet projects longer than is financially wise, straining the whole industry. That would be a pity. Whatever the final toll, a vibrant, healthy market is the best chance of ensuring even those in good condition now continue to prosper.”

MORE IN COMMENT

• In Bloomberg, columnist David Fickling discusses the role of batteries in China’s “Marshall Plan”. 
• In BusinessGreen, Rachel Solomon Williams, executive director at the Aldersgate Group, discusses jobs and the energy transition. 
• The Daily Telegraph carries two articles from climate-sceptic columnist Matthew Lynn attacking the government’s climate and environment policies. 
• The Daily Mail hands its main comment slot to columnist Dominic Lawson, who claims that “energy giants are turning their backs on green power”. 
• The Daily Telegraph’s Scottish editor, Alan Cochrane, questions whether the new Scottish secretary of state will “stop Miliband’s attack on North Sea oil and gas”. 

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Molly Lempriere, with contributions from Henry Zhang and Wanyuan Song. It was edited by Simon Evans.

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