Daily Briefing |
TODAY'S CLIMATE AND ENERGY HEADLINES
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Every weekday morning, in time for your morning coffee, Carbon Brief sends out a free email known as the “Daily Briefing” to thousands of subscribers around the world. The email is a digest of the past 24 hours of media coverage related to climate change and energy, as well as our pick of the key studies published in peer-reviewed journals.
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Today's climate and energy headlines:
- Climate qualms mean oil will never be used up: BP
- Oil market glut will persist through 2016, says IEA
- Paris: a once-in-a-century deal, says EU climate boss
- Stick to emissions targets regardless of EU membership, UK government told
- 'Blackout Britain' reports largely unfounded, study shows
- Expected Polish election winner urges EU climate deal renegotiation
- The new EU power source: Energy-efficient lobbying
- Spread the good news: growth does not have to mean destroying our climate
- These Three Trends Are Redefining the Cost of Energy Everywhere
- Bringing Republicans to the Climate Change Table
- Theme issue: Responding and adapting to climate change: uncertainty as knowledge
- Projected 21st century changes in snow water equivalent over Northern Hemisphere landmasses from the CMIP5 model ensemble
News.
The world’s remaining oil resources will never be fully exploited because of concerns over climate impacts, according to widely reported comments from BP chief economist Spencer Dale. The Guardian calls it “the clearest acknowledgement yet by a major fossil fuel company” that some fossil fuels will be left in the ground. BP is among a group of oil firms due to publish a report on climate action this Friday, says Climate Home. Business Green also has the story.
Higher oil output and a slowdown in global economic growth means an oil glut will persist, according to the International Energy Agency. It expects a “marked slowdown” in oil demand growth, the Financial Times says. The agency has revised down its demand projections since last month, says Reuters. In a second article, Reuterssays oil prices rose but have been capped by concerns around China’s economy and the supply glut. An opinion piece for Reuters says oil price forecasts should be scored for accuracy.
Carbon cutting pledges made by nearly 150 countries show the UN’s new approach to global climate talks is working, according to comments from the EU’s climate chief reported by Climate Home, but a ratchet mechanism to raise ambition over time is vital. The pledges — covering 90% of global emissions — were discussed at a joint EU-Morocco meeting in Rabat this week, reports the Guardian. Meanwhile Grist explains what it sees as the likely outcome from Paris climate talks in December.
The UK should aim to cut its emissions by around half by 2030, regardless of whether it remains in the EU, according to a report from the Committee on Climate Change covered by the Guardian. The scientific report forms part of the background to the committee’s formal advice to government on the UK’s fifth carbon budget, spanning 2028-2032.
Repeated media reports warning of blackouts are largely unfounded says Business Green, covering a report by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit. It found just one brief power outage related to generation in the past decade. Tomorrow National Grid will publish the annual Winter Outlook report, assessing security of supplies for the UK’s cold season.
The likely winner of 25 October elections in Poland wants the EU to renegotiate its 2030 climate deal, reports Reuters, saying the country needs more coal plants. Climate Home looks at six elections that could “boot out climate laggards or propel them to power” before Paris, including in Poland, Canada, Argentina and Turkey.
Comment.
Climate and energy interest groups often lobby Brussels in packs, according to a network analysis for Politico. It also finds that the top three groups in terms of meetings with the European Commission are power industry organisation Eurelectric, NGO Climate Action Network Europe and the European Chemical Industry Council.
In the Telegraph, Geoffrey Lean asks if David Cameron is right, despite everything, to claim to lead the greenest government ever. He cites a new report showing the UK achieved the largest cuts in carbon intensity anywhere in the world last year, alongside strong economic growth.
Falling production costs leading to cheap fossil fuels, the grid challenges as intermittent renewables come to dominate by 2040 and flattening electricity demand no longer linked to growth are changing the energy landscape says Bllomberg New Energy Finance founder Michael Liebreich. You can watch his talk at the firm’s “future of energy” conference in London.
Today’s moderate Republican position on climate change stands in sharp contrast to the party’s position less than a decade ago, says the New York Times’s Eduardo Porter. The turnaround came as a “push by fossil fuel interests” dovetailed with the anti-government anger behind the Tea Party, he writes. Yet a Republican-friendly solution to climate is possible, he says.
Science.
In a Royal Society special issue, scientists explore the relationship between scientific uncertainty about climate change and knowledge. Uncertainty is an inherent feature of the climate system, which has been used as a reason to delay action to reduce emissions, the editors say. Here the researchers argue that uncertainty provides an impetus for action, because greater uncertainty increases the risks associated with climate change. Papers in this issue address physical, economic and social perspectives, as well as the psychological effects of uncertainty.
A new study investigates changes in snow water equivalent (SWE) over Northern Hemisphere land for the early (2016–2035), middle (2046–2065) and late (2080–2099) 21st century. SWE is a measure of how much water there is in a snowpack. Using 20 climate models, the researchers find significant decreases in SWE for most regions under all emissions scenarios tested. Decreases are particularly evident during the spring season and over the Tibetan Plateau and North America, the study finds, while eastern Siberia is the only region with projected increases.