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TODAY'S CLIMATE AND ENERGY HEADLINES

Briefing date 20.12.2022
COP15: Nations reach ‘historic’ deal to protect nature

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News.

COP15: Nations reach 'historic' deal to protect nature
BBC News Read Article

There is widespread media coverage of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, which was agreed at the COP15 summit in Montreal in the early hours of Monday morning. BBC News calls the agreement “historic” and quotes Canada’s minister for the environment and climate change Steven Guilbeault, who told reporters this is “truly a moment that will mark history as Paris did for climate”. The agreement includes 23 targets and four “long-term goals” to protect the natural world by 2050, the Independent says. The Independent reports separately that countries have pledged to protect 30% of the world’s lands, seas, coasts and inland waters by 2030 – an agreement known as “30-by-30”. It continues: “Measures agreed also include a pledge to increase the flow of finance to developing nations to care for nature to $20bn (£16.5bn) by 2025 and at least $30bn (£24.7bn) by 2030. In total, countries pledged to ensure $200bn a year (£164bn) of biodiversity-related funding by 2030, both domestic and international and from public and private sources. There are 2030 targets to halve global food waste, excess nutrients and risks posed by pesticides, reduce to ‘near zero’ the loss of areas of wildlife-rich habitat, and reduce by $500bn (£411.7bn) a year government subsidies that harm nature.” Separately, the paper notes that after two weeks of negotiations nearly 200 countries signed the deal. “It has yet to be determined which areas will be protected [under 30-by-30] although it is expected to include vast swathes of the Amazon and other rainforests,” the i newspaper notes. Sky News adds that, currently, 17% and 10% of the world’s terrestrial and marine areas, respectively, are under protection.

The Guardian calls the agreement a “once-in-a-decade-deal”, noting that the closing plenary lasted for more than seven hours. However, it adds: “The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s negotiator appeared to block the final deal presented by China, telling the plenary that he could not support the agreement in its current form because it did not create a new fund for biodiversity, separate to the existing UN fund, the global environment facility (GEF). China, Brazil, Indonesia, India and Mexico are the largest recipients of GEF funding, and some African states wanted more money for conservation as part of the final deal. However, moments later, China’s environment minister and the COP15 president, Huang Runqiu, signalled that the agreement was finished and agreed, and the plenary burst into applause. Negotiators from Cameroon, Uganda and the DRC expressed incredulity that the agreement had been put through. The DRC said it had formally objected to the agreement, but a UN lawyer said it had not. The negotiator from Cameroon called it ‘a fraud’, while Uganda said there had been a ‘coup d’état’ against the COP15.” Separately, analysis by the Guardian‘s Patrick Greenfield says that the DRC’s objection was rejected on a legal technicality. Separately, the Guardian quotes Ève Bazaiba, the DRC environment minister: “We didn’t accept it. We didn’t have the agreement.” Meanwhile, Uganda “requested to put on record it did not support the procedure”, according to Climate Home News. The Financial Times quotes COP15 president Huang: “I have tried my best to bring you a balanced package…After so many years of difficult negotiations…there’s no magic formula that allows all of us to be completely happy.” The Guardian reports separately that later on Monday, the DRC dropped its objections to the deal, although “the DRC’s concerns over finance will be registered as part of the final report of the COP”.

The Guardian also reports that “environmental groups and ministers have praised the ambition of the agreement, which also places emphasis on Indigenous rights”. However, the Financial Times highlights concerns from WWF about “loopholes, weak language and timelines around actions that aren’t commensurate with the scale of the nature crisis”. New Scientist adds: “A goal to reduce the rate of species extinction tenfold by 2050 represents less ambition than was agreed by the UN 10 years ago, warned environmental group WWF. Meanwhile, a target to halve the global footprint of consumption was relegated to a call for people to be ‘encouraged and enabled to make sustainable consumption choices’”. The outlet also notes that none of the previous global biodiversity goals – set in Aichi, Japan, in 2010 – were fully achieved. Separately, analysis by New Scientist says the deal “may not live up to lofty expectations”. The Financial Times notes that the agreement “does not set country-specific targets and has been criticised for not including stronger language on halting extinction. It also is not legally binding”. BBC News says “some bemoaned the lack of star dust, calling on world leaders to turn up”.

The New York Times reports that the US is just one of two countries in the world that are not bound by the agreement, as Republicans blocked the country’s membership. It adds that President Biden has signed an executive order that would put 30% of US land and oceans under protection, but notes that “efforts to support that goal will most likely face strong opposition when Republicans take control of the House in January”. There is further COP15 coverage from the Wall Street JournalWashington PostTimesBusinessGreenBloombergBig IssueYaleE360BusinessGreenReutersHillAl JazeeraHindu and Axios.

(See Comment below; plus look out for Carbon Brief’s in-depth summary of the key COP15 outcomes, which will be published shortly.)

Met Office forecasts 2023 will be hotter than 2022
BBC News Read Article

The UK Met Office has forecast that 2023 will be the 10th year in a row of warming levels greater than 1C above preindustrial levels, BBC News reports. The forecast says next year will be “one of the hottest” years on record, reaching average temperatures of 1.08-1.32C above the 1850-1900 average, according to the outlet. It adds: “The Met Office explained that a cooling effect known as La Niña will likely end after being in place for three years – part of a natural weather cycle. It also noted the warming impact of human-induced climate change.” The Press Association reports that the central estimate from the Met Office predicts a warming levels of 1.2C next year. It adds: “The current record hot year in the records dating back to 1850 is 2016, a year that saw an ‘El Nino’ climate pattern in the Pacific which pushes up global temperatures on top of global warming trends.”

EU agrees on gas price cap, skeptics denounce it as an ‘illusion'
Politico Read Article

EU ministers have agreed on a “gas price cap” plan, which will come into force on 15 February 2023 for one year, Politico reports. The outlet says that under the plan – called the market correction mechanism – “trades on Europe’s gas exchanges will be capped at €180 per megawatt-hour, if that price level is reached for three working days and European wholesale gas prices are, for the same length of time, €35 above the global price of liquefied natural gas”. Once triggered, the price cap will apply for at least 20 working days and can deactivated if prices fall below €180 per megawatt-hour for three days, Reuters says. “The aim is to shield European households and businesses from the kind of gas price spikes experienced since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” the newswire adds. The Financial Times says: “Germany, which had been strongly opposed to the cap because of fears that it would cause valuable gas supplies to be redirected from Europe to higher paying regions, eventually agreed after safeguards were introduced to make it quicker to remove the limit if there was a risk of gas shortages. The Netherlands and Austria, which had also been against the cap, abstained in the final vote and Hungary voted against.” Reuters adds: “The European Commission stands ready to suspend a gas price cap agreed by European Union countries, if an analysis by regulators shows the risks of the measure outweigh the benefits, the bloc’s energy commissioner said on Monday.” The price ceiling is much lower than the 275 euro ($282) per megawatt cap proposed last month, the Hill notes. Le Monde calls the agreement a “compromise”, adding that the topic is “divisive”. And Bloomberg quotes EU energy commissioner Kadri Simson, who told a press conference: “This mechanism aims to take away the war premium [that Europe pays for its energy].”

In other European news, Reuters reports that European Union countries have voted in favour of weakening the bloc’s planned law to cut methane emissions in the oil and gas sector. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that French nuclear operator EDF has “extended maintenance halts at two nuclear reactors by four months and warned it may have to carry out lengthy repairs at seven others next year, further straining European power supplies”. EDF has faced an “unprecedented” number of outages at reactors this year, according to Reuters.

Climate goal of 1.5C is ‘gasping for breath’, says UN head
The Guardian Read Article

UN secretary general António Guterres has announced that he will hold a “climate ambition summit” in September, which will “challenge leaders of governments and businesses to come up with ‘new, tangible and credible climate action to accelerate the pace of change’ and confront the ‘existential threat’ of the climate crisis”, the Guardian reports. The paper quotes Guterres: “We are still moving in the wrong direction…The 1.5C goal is gasping for breath. National climate plans are falling woefully short. And yet we are not retreating, we are fighting back…The invitation [to the summit] is open. But the price of entry is non-negotiable – serious new climate action that will move the needle forward. It will be a no-nonsense summit. No exceptions. There will be no room for backsliders, greenwashers, blame-shifters or repackaging of announcements of previous years.” Separately, the Guardian has published a video of the speech. The announcement was made at an end-of-year news conference on Monday, according to Al Jazeera.

In other news, Climate Home News covers analysis from the Climate Action Tracker, which finds that Mexico’s new climate plan, announced at COP27 last month, is less ambitious than the previous government’s pledge. China Dialogue’s coverage of the analysis highlights that “Indonesia’s latest climate plan, released shortly before the COP27 climate talks, still involves coal and fails to align the country with a pathway that keeps global warming within 1.5C”.

UK government blocks release of CO2 figures behind transport plan
The Guardian Read Article

The UK government is refusing to release the emission data behind its transport decarbonisation plan, according to a Guardian exclusive. The paper says: “The Department for Transport (DfT) is blocking academics from seeing the figures, which include data on how much car use would have to be reduced in order to reach net-zero commitments. Campaigners say meeting these legally binding targets will be possible only with a drastic reduction in motor traffic, which could make many new road projects financially unviable.” The newspaper quotes an academic, who says the figures show the sector breaching carbon targets and not meeting its own carbon reduction plans. The academic submitted a complaint to the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) demanding the figures be released, the paper says. It adds that the ICO agreed that the figures should be made public, but that the DfT has appealed against the ruling, further delaying publication of the figures. The paper adds: “The climate change committee has argued that the government has not factored a reduction in traffic growth into its net zero plans, instead relying on changes in technology such as a switch to electric cars.”

In other UK news, the Press Association reports that the government has received more than 1,500 individual reports of alleged breaches of the heather and peat burning regulations since a ban on the practice was brought in in May 2021. However, according to the outlet, only one report led to a formal warning. “Greenpeace said the figures showed the regulations were ‘so riddled with loopholes as to be almost unenforceable’ and called for a comprehensive ban on burning peatland,” it adds. Meanwhile, the Press Association reports that problems with burst pipes appear to have worsened as households try to cut their energy use.

Comment.

The Guardian view on the COP15 agreement: nations must do more for nature
Editorial, The Guardian Read Article

The Guardian has published an editorial arguing that the agreement made at COP15 is “insufficient to prevent further irrecoverable losses”. The piece says: “The deal is not legally binding, leading to concerns about the prospects for implementation. The track record of global biodiversity plans is terrible. Every one of 20 targets set at Aichi in Japan in 2010 was missed.” It goes on to note complaints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, and says “it is shaming and alarming that the US was at the talks as an ‘influencer’ and not a participant, because the Senate has refused to ratify the UN convention on biological diversity”. However, it calls the 30-by-30 target “a good one”, adding that it “stands a decent chance of being taken on board by civil society in many countries, in the way that net-zero has”. It concludes that the agreement is a “step forward”, but adds: “The treatment of the DRC in the final session must not be glossed over. If the COP biodiversity process is to work, the UN must ensure that all voices are heard.”

Times editorial hones in on the UK’s role at COP15, calling the deal a “rare piece of good news in gloomy times”. It adds: “Much of the COP15 language is vague, with targets ‘close to zero’ or ‘significantly’ reducing extinction risk. But there is clear recognition that habitats need protection as much as species, that the plunder of natural resources comes at a cost and that biodiversity crosses all borders and oceans. New drugs, new foods and new vaccines come from nature. It must be safeguarded.” Britain has been “active” in these talks, it says, “partly because the public has been won over in recent years by a series of superb campaigning television programmes on wildlife, and partly because Britain has lost more of its biodiversity than almost anywhere else in Europe, the most of the G7 nations and more than many other nations such as China”.

An Irish Times editorial calls the pact a “triumph…against all odds” after the “conference had been staring the collapse of our nature support systems in the face for 10 days”. It compares the sticking-point on finance to last month’s COP27, writing: “An EU-led move doubling North-South biodiversity financing by 2025, and tripling it by 2030, broke the deadlock.” However, it warns, “the devil will be in the delivery of such targets”, including 30-by-30 and says “prosperous countries like Ireland, with stable systems of governance, must lead by example and urgently move to enforce the environmental regulations we have so miserably flouted up to now”.

Finally, an editorial in the Trinidad Express says that, on the surface, Trinidad and Tobago “should have no problem” with the deal struck at COP15. However, it continues: “Protection of T&T’s biodiversity has suffered from decades of delay in formulating policy and taking action. Some efforts got as far as the cabinet dead-end.” It concludes: “T&T must take serious stock of its natural assets before they become fairy tales that our children will one day hear but never actually see or experience.”

Carbon border tax: EU levy justifiably penalises carbon-intense imports
Lex, Financial Times Read Article

The EU’s recently agreed carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) is “a levy that levels the playing field and has a lot more going for it too,” writes the FT’s Lex column. The CBAM is “designed to tax imports of steel and other carbon-intensive products, mirroring European production costs. That should stop ‘carbon leakage’, where output moves elsewhere and employment in Europe takes a hit,” the column continues. Countries that export a lot of carbon-intensive goods to Europe will take a hit, writes Lex, but “CBAM takes the world one step closer to a global carbon price, a vital anchor to turning emissions from an externality into a producer cost”.

Science.

Abrupt loss and uncertain recovery from fires of Amazon forests under low climate mitigation scenarios
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Read Article

A new modelling study of the Amazon finds that, under the high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario, the rainforest would gain biomass at first, but this would “reverse after 2060, when simulated fires prompt forest loss that results in a 40% decline in tropical forest biomass by 2100”. Using the GFDL-ESM4.1 Earth system model, which “accounts for the simultaneous effect of fires, water stress and plant competition”, the researchers find that, after the “initial disturbance” of the fires, “grassland dominance promotes recurrent fires and tree competitive exclusion, which prevents forest recovery”. For other emissions scenarios, the study finds “rapid forest decline after 2080 under scenario SSP3-7.0”, but no abrupt loss under the low and intermediate scenarios of SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. (Carbon Brief’s earlier explainers cover tipping points and Amazon dieback in more detail.)

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