A new report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned that developing countries will require up to $340bn every year by 2030 to adapt to climate change, but the world is far off track in meeting this need, reports the Financial Times. In its annual “adaptation gap” report, UNEP says that while the majority of countries were making plans to adapt, planning was too slow and the financial needs outstripped the support being made available, the FT explains. At COP26 in Glasgow last year, developed countries agreed to double support for adaptation financing to $40bn per year by 2025, notes Reuters. Now, with COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh starting this weekend, the outlet quotes UN secretary general António Guterres saying that countries “must present a credible roadmap with clear milestones on how this will be delivered – preferably as grants, not loans”. The Guardian quotes Guterres as saying: “The UNEP report makes clear that the world is failing to protect people from the here-and-now impacts of the climate crisis…We need a global surge in adaptation investment to save millions of lives from climate carnage.“ He continued: “Adaptation needs in the developing world are set to skyrocket to as much as $340bn [£295bn] a year by 2030…Yet adaptation support today stands at less than one-10th of that amount. The most vulnerable people and communities are paying the price and this is unacceptable.” The report estimates that annual funding needed for adapting to climate change is $160-340bn by 2030 (£142bn-£300bn) and $315-565bn (£280bn-£502bn) by 2050, notes the Press Association. Adaptation can include measures such as “alert schemes to deal with heatwaves” and “increasing greenery in cities, flood defences, and planting climate-resilient crops”, the newswire says. The Independent lists the report’s main takeaways, such as “increasing efforts to adapt are taking place in agriculture, water and ecosystems – but progress risks being outstripped by risks” and that “eight out of 10 countries have adaptation plans, and one-third have introduced timescales and ways to quantify projects”. UNEP executive director Inger Andersen warned that if developing nations can’t adjust to climate change, rich countries will also feel the consequences, reports the New York Times. Andersen said: “The idea that you can have a wall around your state and somehow protect yourself, so that you can adapt while everybody else will sink, or burn, or die in droughts, is simply unrealistic…People are not moving because they want to when they are climate refugees…They are moving because they have to.”

COP26 president Alok Sharma has said that “stark warnings keep coming” on climate change and that much faster action is needed to cut emissions, reports the Press Association. Speaking ahead of COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, the UK’s lead on climate said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had reduced the focus on climate change this year but that countries “need to be able to do more than one thing at a time”. Sharma said that “there is no doubt that the window is closing fast” on holding global warming to no more than 1.5C, but “I do believe that if countries deliver on the commitments that they’ve made, then we will get there”. Sharma also said he was “delighted” that UK prime minister Rishi Sunak was attending COP27 after reversing a decision to miss the conference, the newswire reports. However, the Times says that Sharma “cast doubt on proposals to extract more oil and gas from the North Sea, warning that there was no evidence to suggest that this was compatible with the government’s net-zero commitment”. Speaking to the paper, Sharma said: “My ask is, can we see further analysis to demonstrate that new oil and gas exploration in the North Sea is indeed compatible with a net-zero scenario.” (Carbon Brief published a factcheck in February on whether new oil and gas licensing in the North Sea could ever be compatible with tackling climate change.) Meanwhile, the Daily Express reports: “Yesterday, the UK crossed a major energy milestone, as the National Grid announced that wind produced over half of the country’s electricity it needed.”

At the same time, the Evening Standard reports on the comments by climate minister Graham Stuart that Sunak is “absolutely committed” to the UK reaching net-zero by 2050. It says Stuart told Times Radio that “Egypt will not be on the same scale and significance as Glasgow but it’s all about a focus on delivery. We are looking to make sure that these pledges convert into action because the science says that we are not on track globally for 1.5C, we need to keep it in sight.” Speaking on Sunak’s hesitance over attending COP27 and the reported blocking of a visit from King Charles, Spain’s environment minister, Teresa Ribera, tells the Guardian that “it’s surprising that they’d limit the presence of the head of state and call into question the presence of the prime minister. Given all that the UK has been for so long when it comes to analysing global problems and proposing global solutions, it’s very sad to see that debate”. Fraser Nelson, editor of the Spectator, uses his column for the Daily Telegraph to suggest to Sunak that “the best thing the global north can do to stop climate change is to help the spread of capitalism, sharing the technology that is driving down our emissions”.

The Press Association reports that Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon will be going to COP27 and has said she is “determined” the country will play its part in responding to climate change. Speaking during first minister’s questions on Wednesday, Sturgeon promised to do what she can “to further collaboration between Scotland and other countries to build upon the agreements that were made in Glasgow” at last year’s climate talks, the newswire reports. It says Sturgeon added: “Although we are not yet a member state of the UN or party to the Paris Agreement, Scotland will do its part by sharing our own experiences of delivering net-zero targets at home as part of a just transition, and also by helping to amplify the voices of those most impacted by climate change but also very often excluded from the debate.” The i newspaper looks at which world leaders are going to COP27.

In other COP27 news, Climate Home News reports on warnings from human rights groups that Egyptian authorities are clamping down on activists and undocumented workers ahead of the summit. Grist has a piece asking whether Egypt’s climate agenda is a “mirage”. Agence France-Presse reports on how, despite the summit being touted as an “African COP”, scientists and campaigners fear that it “will once again leave them sidelined”. The article quotes recent analysis by Carbon Brief showing that extreme weather events in Africa “have killed at least 4,000 people and displaced 19 million so far this year”. There are also multiple COP27 preview pieces, including those by the New York Times, BBC News and Reuters, while the Washington Post looks at how “very few” countries have strengthened their climate pledges this year.

In related comment, India Bourke – environment correspondent at the New Statesman – looks at why COP27 “has a confidence problem”. The context in which COP27 is taking place is “arguably the toughest in the event’s 27-year existence”, Bourke writes, noting that “the war in Ukraine has frayed diplomatic relations, leaving many nations distracted and their economies stretched” and “the human rights record of Egypt, the COP27 host, has raised concerns about the limited scope for Egyptian civil society to make its voice heard”.

Around 40 of the 119 countries that signed up to the Global Methane Pledge at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow last year will unveil their plans for cutting emissions at COP27 next week, reports Reuters. According to a senior US official “who asked not to be named”, the US, Canada and Vietnam are among the countries that will put forward details, the newswire reports. It adds: “The plans will outline the countries’ regulations, standards and investments in methane reduction and how those strategies fit into their broader climate targets under the 2015 Paris climate agreement.” Aside from the US, the official said it is unclear if any of the world’s other top 10 methane emitters would present plans at the summit, the outlet reports, adding: “The world’s top two largest methane emitters, China and India, are not signatories to the pledge, and other big emitters like Brazil are not expected to have plans in time for the talks.” So far, Reuters says, “only 15 countries have published specific targets or detailed national strategies for slashing their methane emissions” since signing the pledge. For more details on the pledge, see analysis published by Carbon Brief during COP26, while Reuters has an explainer on methane.

Meanwhile, Climate Home News reports that Costa Rica will no longer lead an international initiative to phase out oil and gas production. Denmark and Costa Rica jointly launched the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (Boga) at COP26 along with six other core members, the outlet explains, where they committed to phase out or rule out fossil fuel development in their countries. However, it continues, after a change in government in early 2022, Costa Rica’s newly appointed environment minister said that the alliance is not a priority for COP27. The outlet quotes Franz Tattenbach saying: “Costa Rica will not be very active in Boga… I don’t think this is a great example. Costa Rica will not lead by saying ‘we are in Boga’. Costa Rica has much more to teach (the world) than by saying ‘we are banning this’…It’s more interesting to stop deforestation in the Amazon, in tropical Africa and in Latin America in general. That can do more to stop climate change and it serves us better. That doesn’t mean we will exit Boga, but we won’t have a leading voice.”

A new nuclear power plant in Suffolk is under review and could be delayed or even axed, as the government tries to cut spending, the BBC reports. Sizewell C was expected to provide up to 7% of the UK’s total electricity needs, the outlet notes, but a government official said the project – along with “every major project” – is being reviewed as the government works out its tax and spending plans ahead of the chancellor’s Autumn Statement on 17 November. The government gave the go-ahead for the plant – which is set to be developed by French energy company EDF – in July, the broadcaster says. However, it continues, “there was confusion” yesterday as executives at EDF and the Business and Energy department “seemed blindsided by a potential change in tack on existing government policy, which promises to press ahead with both large and smaller scale nuclear projects”. It quotes one nuclear industry executive close to the matter saying: “As far we know, it’s still on.” The Press Association and Independent also pick up the story.

Harbour Energy, the UK’s largest oil and gas producer, has warned the government against toughening up the windfall tax on North Sea operators, reports the Guardian, “as the prime minister finalises plans for a £40bn raid on the industry”. It says Harbour Energy chief executive Linda Cook urged the government to “carefully consider” any mooted change to the energy profits levy, which was introduced earlier this year. According to the paper, she said that shareholders were pressing for the company to invest in other countries because of the “uncertainty” around the levy, adding: “Evaluating expected returns from long-term investments has become more difficult and investors are advocating for geographic diversification.“ Harbour forecasted that it would pay $400m under the windfall tax this year, taking its total UK tax bill to $900m, reports Reuters. The Times notes that Harbour “has interests in two proposed carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects” in the UK, which “could entail billions of pounds of investment”. It says Cook warned that “at a time when oil and gas producers are being asked to invest more to help ensure the UK’s energy security and are considering longer-term, material investments in CCS, additional taxes would run the risk of undermining our ability to do either.” (The levy includes a generous exemption to encourage new investment.) The Financial Times quotes Serica Energy, which is responsible for 5% of the gas produced in the UK, saying that an expanded windfall tax would make further investment in UK waters “even more challenging as well as increasing fiscal instability yet further”. It adds that tax increases would push the company “to consider investment opportunities outside of the UK”. The Press Association also has the story.

Indian finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has launched the country’s “biggest ever coal mine auction” comprising 141 mines in 11 states, Moneycontrol reports. The outlet reports Sitharaman saying that under past governments, “little thought was given to better the country’s domestic coal production” and claiming that the “(cumulative annual growth rate) of coal imports…has been brought down” under the Modi government. (The Indian government recently invoked emergency powers to ramp up coal imports, citing a coal shortage. State-run National Thermal Power Corporation and miner Coal India issued tenders for coal imports to private companies, including Adani. It rolled back the mandatory import orders only in August).

Meanwhile, India’s environment, forests and climate minister Bhupender Yadav said that at COP27, “India will insist on action and a clear pathway that developed countries must follow to deliver long-promised finance”, the Hindu reports. “We will seek clarity on climate finance, technology transfer and clear definitions of what constitutes climate finance. There are several claims made on funds being given by the West but loans and grants must be clearly differentiated,” the minister is quoted as saying. The paper says it is “unclear if prime minister Narendra Modi will attend”, adding that India is expected to support “initiatives that provide technical assistance to developing countries for averting, and minimising loss and damage”.

In an “exclusive”, Reuters reports that the Group of Seven rich nations (G7) and Australia have agreed to set a fixed price when they finalise a price cap on Russian oil later this month, rather than adopting a floating rate. The newswire explains: “US officials and G7 countries have been in intense negotiations in recent weeks over the unprecedented plan to put a price cap on sea-borne oil shipments, which is scheduled to take effect on 5 December – to ensure EU and US sanctions aimed at limiting Moscow’s ability to fund its invasion of Ukraine do not throttle the global oil market.” The initial price itself has not been set, but should be in coming weeks, multiple sources told the outlet, which adds that “coalition partners agreed to regularly review the fixed price and revise it as needed, the source said, without disclosing further details”.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is “sounding the alarm bell” over gas supplies in Europe next year and warned against “complacency”, reports the Financial Times. It continues: “Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, said on Thursday that while Europe had successfully filled storage sites to 95% ahead of the winter months, the agency forecast a significant shortfall for next year, with Russian supplies expected to remain largely cut off.” Birol is quoted saying: “There is a looming risk …We think gas markets will still be tight and volatile. This is an alarm bell for next winter as we believe we need to take immediate action now to avoid a shortage next year.” Birol said the IEA’s analysis suggested that at this time next year, storage facilities in Europe may only be 65% full given the challenges in refilling them from next spring, the FT says. Reuters also has the story.

In related news, Reuters reports that “Poland has complained to the European Court of Justice about EU gas reduction rules agreed earlier this year, a deputy justice minister said on Thursday, adding the regulation was not agreed unanimously by the bloc as it should have been”. And the newswire also reports on comments from Italy’s climate change envoy, who has warned that the energy crisis is creating difficulties with a commitment the Italian government made last year to stop funding overseas fossil fuel projects.

There is “no way” that that world can now avoid a global temperature rise of more than 1.5C, says an editorial in the Economist, and while there is “still hope that the overshoot may not be too big, and may be only temporary…even these consoling possibilities are becoming ever less likely”. The accompanying briefing is the magazine’s cover story this week. The consequences of the world’s failure to curb emissions are “catastrophic”, the outlet says, but the response “should be a dose of realism”. It continues: “Many activists are reluctant to admit that 1.5C is a lost cause. But failing to do so prolongs the mistakes made in Paris, where the world’s governments adopted a Herculean goal without any plausible plan for reaching it. The delegates gathering in Egypt should be chastened by failure, not lulled by false hope. They need to be more pragmatic, and face up to some hard truths.” For example, the outlet says, “cutting emissions will require much more money”, “fossil fuels will not be abandoned overnight” and “greater efforts must be made to adapt to climate change”. Policymakers also “need to consider more radical ways” to cool the planet, the outlet says: “Technologies to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, now in their infancy, need a lot of attention. So does ‘solar geoengineering’, which blocks out incoming sunlight. Both are mistrusted by climate activists, the first as a false promise, the second as a scary threat. On solar geoengineering people are right to worry. It could well be dangerous and would be very hard to govern. But so will an ever hotter world. The worthies in Egypt need to take that on board.” The outlet also has a piece on how “America’s defence department is looking for rogue geoengineers”.

Fortunately, the editorial says, “a lot of adaptation is affordable”. The magazine carries a special report on adaptation, entitled “the challenge of the age”. This includes articles on how “money and moderately good governance make climate-change adaptation easier”, why “small climate projects cannot take the place of all large ones”, why “a lot can be done to adapt farming to near-term climate change”, how “business of businesses is climate-change adaptation”, why “public money must pave the way for private investment in climate-change adaptation” and why “the rich world is wrong to think that climate impacts in poor countries don’t matter”.

Arctic fires burned an “unprecedentedly large area of carbon-rich soils” over the summer of 2020, which was the warmest in four decades, according to new research. The authors combine satellite-derived maps of annual burned area in the Siberian Arctic with analysis of climatic factors associated with the likelihood of fires. They find that fires burned around 4.7m hectares of land over 2019-20, accounting for 44% of the total burned area in the Siberian Arctic over 1982–2020. The paper adds: “Large fires in the Arctic are likely to recur with climatic warming before mid-century, because the temperature trend is reaching a threshold in which small increases in temperature are associated with exponential increases in the area burned.”

Early snowmelt and an “anomalous Arctic front jet” over northeastern Siberia have promoted “unusually warm and dry surface conditions” in the region – leading to “anomalously high lightning and fire activity” – a new study finds. Since 1966, spring snowmelt in northeastern Siberia has started 1.7 days earlier each decade, according to the paper. The authors add that over the last 40 years, Arctic front jet occurrences in summer have more than tripled in frequency. These processes “may accelerate the degradation of carbon-rich permafrost peatlands”, the study says.