Early this morning, the Egyptian COP27 presidency published a text outlining what might be included in the “cover decision” from the summit, with Reuters reporting: “The document, labelled a ‘non-paper’, indicating it is still far from the final version, repeats the goal from last year’s Glasgow climate pact to ‘to accelerate measures towards the phase-down of unabated coal power and phase out and rationalise inefficient fossil fuel subsidies’.” The newswire adds: “However, much of the text is likely to be reworked in the coming days.” It also says: “The text does not include details for launching a fund for loss and damage, a key demand from the most climate vulnerable countries such as island nations. Rather, it ‘welcomes’ the fact that parties have agreed for the first time to include ‘matters related to funding arrangements responding to loss and damage’ on the summit agenda.” (Bloomberg reported yesterday: “The US will back a proposal to phase down all fossil fuels at the UN climate conference as long as it focuses on projects with unchecked emissions, climate envoy John Kerry said Wednesday.” BusinessGreen reports that France has also backed the idea.)

Bloomberg says that the Egyptian cover text paper “largely kept last year’s pledge made at Glasgow to ‘accelerate measures towards the phase down of unabated coal power’ and phase out fossil fuel subsidies”. The outlet reports (incorrectly since the text is far from being finalised and has not yet been negotiated): “Countries negotiating at the climate summit in Egypt are on track to reject calls for phasing down the use of all fossil fuels, snuffing efforts by India and key developed nations to target oil and gas as well as coal in an overarching deal at COP27.” (The Egyptian text does not mention phasing down the use of all fossil fuels, but will change once it has been subject to negotiation, as Bloomberg notes.) The outlet continues: “The draft, which is still subject to revisions during the week, will likely come as a disappointment for countries who were pushing for a phase down of all fossil fuels, not just coal. India led the push, but received backing from the US, European Union and the UK, though the latter countries wanted to make sure that phasing down coal in particular was still highlighted.” It adds: “Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said in an interview last week that the kingdom would be very unlikely to support an agreement that included the phase down of oil.” The publication also reports: “In one notable section, the draft sees countries call on multilateral development banks to do more to scale up climate finance. They should increase the amount of money provided by three times by 2025 ‘without exacerbating debt burdens’ on national budgets, the document said.” It adds: “The document also for the first time acknowledges the energy crisis gripping the world, as concerns about fuel needs prompt countries to embrace more coal-fired power. ‘The unprecedented global energy crisis underlines the urgency to rapidly transform energy systems to be more secure, reliable and resilient’ as well as ‘the need to accelerate clean and just transitions to renewable energy,’ the draft said.”

Climate Home News explains the status of the text released this morning: “There is less than 48 hours to go before COP27 is due to end. In the early hours this morning, the Egyptian presidency published a second, 20-page sketch of the ‘elements’ a cover text might include. This is not a text that has been discussed by countries but elements reflecting what Egypt has gathered from consultations with countries. Formal negotiations on the text are yet to start.” It continues: “Under the heading ‘urgency of action to keep 1.5C within reach’, the document repeats the language of the Paris Agreement to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit temperature rise to 1.5C.” It adds: “Borrowing from a recent statement of the Basic emerging economies, it proposes to ‘express deep regret that developed countries who have the most capabilities financially and technologically to lead in reducing their emissions continue to fall short in doing so’. It adds: ‘Developed countries should attain net-negative carbon emissions by 2030.’” (See a thread from Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans for more on what is in – or out – of the text released this morning.)

Elsewhere, Reuters reports: “An alliance committed to banning new domestic oil and gas drilling added Portugal as a member at the COP27 climate talks on Wednesday, but big fossil fuel producers stayed away as the world reels from energy turmoil caused by the Ukraine war.” Another Reuters article says: “France and Spain on Thursday joined a pledge to stop sales of gasoline-driven vehicles by 2035, five years earlier than previously planned, part of efforts to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy.” And India’s NDTV reports: “Rich nations are making a push to include language such as ‘major emitters’ and ‘top emitters’ in the cover text of the ongoing UN climate summit in Egypt which is not acceptable to India, a member of the Indian delegation said.”

The G20 group of major economies “pledged on Wednesday to strive to limit global warming to 1.5C”, the Financial Times reports, saying the move “was welcomed by negotiators at the UN COP27 climate summit in Egypt where the key threshold has become a flashpoint”. It quotes the G20 communique saying: “The resolve to try and limit the temperature increase to 1.5C is urgent.” The paper goes on to quote German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan saying the inclusion of 1.5C “sent an important signal – to the ministers and negotiators here at COP27 and to the whole world”. It adds that the G20 communique included commitments to accelerate the “phase down of unabated coal power” and “phase out ‘inefficient fossil fuel subsidies’ in the medium term”, which it says is “in line with the COP26 Glasgow pact”. The Guardian says the communique from the G20 “lifted spirits at the COP as it contained language on keeping to the 1.5C temperature limit and the need to address loss and damage”. BusinessGreen covers the communique under the headline: “reaffirms commitment to Paris Agreement’s 1.5C temperature goal”. Reuters says the Egyptian COP27 presidency “welcomes G20 declaration on climate”. A New York Times article reports: “The mantra has been: Limit global warming to 1.5C or risk climate catastrophe. But at COP27, there are hints of backsliding.”

Countries remain far from wrapping up talks at the COP27 climate summit in Egypt, Reuters reports, adding that the hosts have “urg[ed] negotiators to resolve their differences ahead of a weekend deadline”. It continues: “[I]nside the negotiating rooms in Egypt, deep divisions remained, according to Egypt’s COP27 presidency special representative Wael Aboulmagd.” It quotes Aboulmagd saying: “I think we have a larger than normal number of lingering issues…We would have hoped under the current circumstances to see more willingness to cooperate and accommodate than we are seeing.” The newswire quotes one “official close to the talks” saying: “There is concern about how we’re to get to the end, and there is concern because we’re talking about the biggest problem facing humanity.” It continues: “Negotiations remained thorny around the issue of ‘loss and damage’, or how to help countries hit by huge economic loss as a result of climate-driven disasters, with countries divided over whether and when to set up a fund and who should pay into it. But on Wednesday, negotiators notched a small victory by agreeing to set up the so-called Santiago Network, a body to offer technical assistance to countries that need help rebuilding after disasters. Wealthy countries continue to resist agreeing this year to establishing a dedicated loss and damage fund.”

Climate Home News reports: “The EU is open to creating a new funding stream to help victims of climate disaster recover – as long as China contributes.” It explains: “A group of 134 developing countries, known as the G77, and China, is calling for agreement in Sharm el-Sheikh this week to set up a loss and damage facility. Rich countries prefer a ‘mosaic’ of funding arrangements. The EU argues a facility is just one option to consider – and the decision should be made at next year’s summit.” Bloomberg reports: “China and India, two of the world’s three biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, are under increasing pressure from developing nations to commit that they will contribute to a facility aimed at compensating the world’s poorest nations for climate-related disasters.” It adds: “Mauritius, Jamaica and Ghana are among developing countries that want the pool of potential funders for the loss and damage facility that’s being discussed at the COP27 climate summit in Egypt to be widened beyond the Western industrialised nations that have traditionally been held responsible for global warming.” Reuters also has the story, with a second Reuters article reporting that the EU the bloc and four of its member countries are to provide “over €1bn for climate adaptation in Africa”. The Press Association says: “Vulnerable countries and campaigners are calling for urgent progress on funding for loss and damage caused by climate change, as COP27 talks enter the final few days.” Reuters reports: “Former Irish president Robinson worried over climate ‘loss and damage’ talks.” Another Reuters article says: “Germany needs to help countries that cannot afford to pay for the losses and damage caused by climate change, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Wednesday at the COP27 climate summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.” The Guardian reports on polling from the UK showing: “A significant majority of people in the UK think the country has a responsibility to pay for climate action in poorer and vulnerable countries, an opinion poll shows.” The Press Association reports: “Irish minister [Eamon Ryan] appointed as EU lead on climate damage talks.”

Meanwhile, Axios says: “Deep fault lines remain as talks enter crunch time.” The Independent says: “Negotiations at COP27 in Egypt are making slow progress with less than 72 hours to go until the crucial climate summit draws to a close.” And the Times focuses on continuing concerns about surveillance at COP27, under the headline: “COP27 officials get burner phones to combat spying.”

There is widespread coverage of the visit to the COP27 climate summit by Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The Financial Times says he “vowed to put Brazil at the centre of the fight against climate change” and to “crack down on illegal deforestation”. The paper continues that Lula “said he would ask the UN to host the COP30 summit in 2025 in the Amazon rainforest”. It adds: “The 77-year-old leftwing leader received an enthusiastic welcome from supporters at the summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, who chanted his name as he entered the venue and cheered during his speech on Wednesday.” Reuters says Lula was “greeted like a rock star”. It quotes him saying: “We will spare no efforts to have zero deforestation and the degradation of our biomes by 2030.” It continues: “Lula added that he was calling on rich nations to deliver on their past pledge to provide $100bn a year to poor countries to help them adapt to climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.” The Guardian says Lula was “followed by a carnival atmosphere wherever he went” at the summit. The New York Times, Climate Home News, Bloomberg, Times and the Washington Post also have the story. Meanwhile, the Independent reports: “‘Alarm bell for humanity’: Amazon now ‘alarmingly close’ to critical tipping point of no return.”

Separately, the Guardian says COP28 host the UAE is “using its role as the host of next year’s UN climate conference to launder its international reputation”. DeSmog reports: “Eighteen of the 20 companies sponsoring UN climate talks in the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh either directly support or partner with oil and gas companies, according to a new analysis shared with DeSmog.” A comment for DeSmog is titled: “Climate diplomacy’s biggest meeting of the year needs to be insulated from fossil fuel influence.” The Guardian reports that Australia, which wants to host COP31 in 2026, has been “told to end new fossil fuel subsidies if it wants Pacific support” for its bid.

The rains behind devastating floods that displaced 1.5 million Nigerians and killed 612 people were made 80 times more likely by climate change, according to a new study covered by the Washington Post and others. The Post says the World Weather Attribution group found: “The rainy season in West Africa was 20% wetter than it would have been without the influence of climate change.” It adds: “Throughout West Africa, prolonged rain events such as the one just experienced now have a 1 in 10 chance of happening each year; previously they were exceptionally rare.” The Guardian says of the new research: “The heavy rain behind recent devastating flooding in Nigeria, Niger and Chad was made about 80 times more likely by the climate crisis, a study has found.” It adds: “The finding is the latest stark example of the severe impacts that global heating is already wreaking on communities, even with just a 1C rise in global temperature to date. It adds pressure on the world’s nations at the UN COP27 climate summit in Egypt to deliver meaningful action on protecting and compensating affected countries.” Bloomberg also has the story. The New York Times says the same group of researchers released a second study yesterday on the drought affecting the Sahel region: “But the researchers were unable to determine whether climate change influenced the drier than normal conditions because of a lack of reliable weather data, a common problem in some less-developed countries.” Carbon Brief also covers both pieces of research.

Xie Zhenhua, China’s special envoy for climate change, this week “urged developed countries to fulfill their promises” and “make the pie bigger” on climate finance at a side-event at the China’s COP27 pavilion, report the Global Times. The state-run newspaper notes that China is helping developing countries “improve their climate adaptation capabilities through South-South cooperation”.

Meanwhile, Yicai writes that China is “changing its method of calculating energy consumption for regions and corporations to promote the development of the renewables industry”. According to a recent document published by the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and the National Energy Administration, the annual usage of renewables will be “deducted from the total energy consumption till 2025”, the Shanghai-based financial outlet notes. It adds that the suggested policy means that firms that “consume a lot of energy could offset some of the impacts by using renewables to reach their environmental goals”. Another Yicai article reports that “international flights booked with Chinese airlines soared almost 140%” in the first two weeks of this month compared to a year ago after coronavirus restrictions on overseas arrivals were “relaxed”.

Elsewhere, Yicai says that China’s “total retail sales of consumer goods fell for the first time in five months” in October as consumption “sagged”, according to data published by the NBS on Tuesday. Finally, Caixin Global writes that new property sales in China continued to plunge in October, despite the government attempts to stabilise the market.

Ahead of today’s “Autumn statement” from UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Bloomberg reports that he is to announce “billions of pounds to insulate homes and upgrade boilers in a drive to cut Britain’s overall energy demand by at least 13% this decade”. Citing “Treasury officials familiar with his thinking, who requested anonymity because the plans haven’t been announced”, the outlet says the government will launch a task force to lead the work, with new funding from 2025 to 2028 and a public information campaign “to encourage individuals and firms to reduce their energy consumption”. It explains: “Currently, low-income households and people on certain benefits can receive free energy efficiency improvements such as insulation through their energy supplier and local council. Under Hunt’s plan, the government will expand the programs, meaning hundreds of thousands more households in council tax bands A to D will be eligible to apply for government support for insulation and other improvements.” It adds: “The total cost of meeting the 13% target is estimated at tens of billions of pounds, and will be met by both the taxpayer and the private sector, a government official said.” BusinessGreen says “new polling shows majority of Brits are worried about paying their energy bills – but green groups insist steps can still be taken to curb energy costs”. The Guardian says Greenpeace projected a film on fuel poverty onto the “North Yorkshire mansion” of prime minister Rishi Sunak. The Independent also has the story.

In other coverage ahead of the Autumn statement, the Press Association reports: “Surging energy bills send inflation to 41-year high ahead of autumn budget.” A comment in the Guardian assesses the expected windfall tax on electricity generators, saying: “Excess profits look set for a levy in the autumn statement – but first define ‘excess’ and for whom.” The Independent says: “Onshore wind more popular with Conservative voters than MPs realise, polls show.”

“One of the most fascinating developments from [COP27…is a new online tool released by the nonprofit coalition Climate Trace that allows us to see emissions in near-real time,” writes David Wallace-Wall in the New York Times. He continues: “For a while, we’ve used ballpark estimates for emissions from countries, industries and the planet as a whole. The point of the Climate Trace project is to bring it down to the level of individual polluting facilities…it marks another step toward what is beginning to seem like the inevitable development of a sort of global carbon surveillance state – one which, even independent of any global enforcement mechanism, promises to change some aspects of the conventional picture of climate change and what is causing it.” He concludes that “one hopes, at least, that knowing more will be better than knowing less, in part by making clear that warming is not the vague result of industrial civilization in general but of the very particular one we have built – and which we can now watch corroding our future in real time, whatever the world’s leaders do with that information”.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic, Robinson Meyer looks at the surprising success of Joe Biden’s campaigning in last week’s US midterm elections: “There should have been a climate backlash. A week out, that’s what’s most astonishing about the midterm elections. During previous administrations, voters penalised congressional Democrats for even trying to pass a climate bill. That’s what happened in 1993 and 2009. This time, Democrats actually did it with the Inflation Reduction Act, and then it turned into the best midterm performance for a party in power in a generation” He continues: “What Biden’s energy balancing act suggests is that these bumps in the road can be managed as long as politicians understand what the economy needs – to fight climate change in the long term and to manage costs in the near term – and deliver. The country isn’t doomed to endless thermostatic backlashes: When policy is designed cannily and attentively, it can avoid political blowback. That’s maybe the most hopeful takeaway of them all.”

Finally, in the Financial Times, Alan Beattie notes that a “strong trade dimension is notably absent from COP27”, adding: “There has been an increase in defensive environmental measures in trade, levelling the international playing field to protect businesses from imports produced to lower standards. But given the vast improvements in green technology, from renewables to electric cars, the drive to reduce carbon emissions needs a stronger element of open trade and the transfer of technology.” And the Guardian carries the views of its economics editor Larry Elliott who argues that “kicking our growth addiction is the way out of the climate crisis”. He explains: “Western countries can – and should – set an example with speedier transition to cleaner energy, but it is naive to imagine poorer countries are going to go for degrowth any time soon. That doesn’t mean the idea of a steady-state planet is a pipe dream. It does, though, suggest that the immediate priority should be to make developing country growth as clean as possible. And that needs more than warm words. It requires big money: $2tn each year between now and 2030, according to one estimate.”

“Weak” tropical cyclones intensified in all ocean basins over 1991–2020, new research finds. The authors use “huge amounts of highly accurate ocean current data derived from surface drifters” to measure near-surface ocean currents. They find that globally, ocean currents sped up by around 4 centimetres per second each decade during the study period, corresponding to a 1.8 metre per second per decade increase in tropical cyclone intensity. The paper adds: “Our analysis further indicates that globally tropical cyclones have strengthened across the entirety of the intensity distribution.”

Climate change-driven differences in ocean surface temperature will likely be detectable over the eastern Pacific by 2030 – four decades earlier than previously expected – new research finds. The authors analysed around 70 years of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) data from 1950 onwards, and used climate models to estimate when increased ENSO variability will be detectable in the eastern or central Pacific. They project that the signal will emerge earlier in the eastern than in the central Pacific, driven by the faster warming of this region and therefore a larger increase in rainfall.