England and Wales could see thousands more heat-related deaths as “climate change collides with an ageing population”, according to a new study covered by Sky News. The current “baseline” figure is 634 heat deaths a year, but this could rise to around 4,500 by the 2070s under a low-emissions scenario, the article says. The study also considers a very high emissions scenario in which heat deaths “might climb into the tens of thousands”, the outlet adds. [These projections lead most of the media coverage.] The Financial Times says the findings “highlight how the balance of danger from heat and cold is likely to shift across Europe as the climate changes”. The study considers different contributing factors, such as “demographics, regional climate variations, potential power outages and different levels of warming and adaptation including shutters and active cooling systems”. The Guardian says the scientists warned of the need for adaptation measures, noting that previous research has “underestimated heat mortality by not assessing the impact of older societies”. The newspaper says the findings come as the UK Health Security Agency issues a “yellow heat health” alert for all regions until Tuesday 15 July, with hotter weather of up to 31-33C forecast for the weekend. BBC News explains that this means health and social care services could be significantly affected “through increased demand or a rise in deaths”. In an analysis article about the latest heatwave, BBC News notes that “as our climate continues to warm, what was once a rare meteorological event is becoming a more regular feature of our summers”. Scotland is expected to see its hottest day of the year so far this Saturday, with an “extreme wildfire warning” in place across the nation, the Scotsman says.

MORE ON EXTREME WEATHER

• A top Bank of England official has warned that extreme weather events driven by climate change represent a growing threat to the UK’s economic stability, with the potential to worsen inflationary shocks, the Financial Times reports.
• Inside Climate News reports that, despite the catastrophic flooding that hit parts of the state last week, long-term drought still persists in Texas.
• Trump’s nominee to head the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Neil Jacobs, has pledged to fully staff the National Weather Service, after “catastrophic” Texas floods triggered a criticism over federal cuts, Politico reports.
• Climate change is making south Asia’s monsoon season more prone to floods, landslides and heavy rains, according to the Associated Press.
• Data centres around the world are increasingly threatened by rising temperatures as climate change continues to accelerate, according to E&E News.

The OPEC group of oil-producing nations has cut its global oil demand forecasts for the next four years, as Chinese growth slows, Reuters reports. However, it also raised its longer-term forecast and said “there was no sign oil use had reached its peak”, according to the newswire. The article says OPEC expects India, the Middle East and Africa to drive growth in the future. According to the group, “developments such as the US exit from the UN climate pact and a slower electric vehicle penetration rate in Europe is likely to influence behaviour and lead to a slower energy transition in developing countries with high energy needs”, the newswire states. It notes a divergence between OPEC and the influential International Energy Agency (IEA), which has estimated that oil will reach peak demand by 2029. The group’s annual world oil outlook predicts that energy demand would rise by 23% by 2050, driven in part by “new energy-intensive industries like artificial intelligence”, the Times says. The newspaper notes that OPEC accounts for about a third of global oil production, with Saudi Arabia its biggest producer. Agence France-Presse quotes OPEC secretary general Haitham Al-Ghais, who states in the foreword of the report that many timelines to reach net-zero emissions have “little regard for energy security, affordability or feasibility”.

Global renewable power capacity grew by 15% last year, according to the latest annual statistical report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), BusinessGreen reports. This was “driven in large part by the rapid roll out of wind and solar projects across Asia, which have led to a widening of the gap between regions capitalising on the clean energy boom and those at risk of being left behind”, the article explains. The report shows the world added 582 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable electricity capacity in 2024, representing a record annual increase, the outlet adds. ReNews says that more than 70% of global renewable energy capacity added in 2024 was installed in Asia. Meanwhile other regions, including “Eurasia” – which covers central Asia – Africa, Central America and the Caribbean collectively represented just 2.8% of global additions, the article notes.

MORE ON RENEWABLES

• Regulatory filings and price data reviewed by Reuters show that, despite claims by US president Donald Trump, grid reliability has improved dramatically in Texas, the state with the most renewable energy.
• The Daily Telegraph reports that UK energy secretary Ed Miliband is planning to cut “transmission charges” for renewable developers in the south of England to incentivise them to build more wind and solar near “England’s power-hungry cities”.
• The UK’s new public power company, Great British Energy, is “weighing up” multimillion pound stakes in six floating offshore wind projects, Politico reports.
• The Daily Telegraph says the hard-right Reform UK party “plans to save £40m by cutting net-zero spending at its largest council” in Kent by, for example, scrapping plans to switch to electric vehicles. [Kent County Council has previously said that electrifying its fleet would have a return on investment of between one and five years.]

A total of 25 rivers in south-western China exceeded “safe levels” yesterday, Reuters reports, and more than 10,000 people have been evacuated as tropical storm Danas “converged with east Asian monsoon rains”. The newswire adds that “extreme rainfall and severe flooding, which meteorologists link to climate change, increasingly pose major challenges as they threaten to overwhelm ageing flood defences, displace millions and wreak havoc on a $2.8tn agricultural sector”. The New York Times reports that southern China’s Guangdong province and Hong Kong are bracing for “floods and fierce winds” today as the remnants of the storm move across the area. State news agency Xinhua reports that, despite “challenging weather conditions”, China’s summer grain output decreased 0.1% year-on-year. Bloomberg says that climate change is making work “starker” and “deadlier” for China’s 200 million gig workers due to extreme heat. 

MORE ON CHINA

• Xinhua reports that China has launched a “special operation to combat smuggling of strategic minerals”, according to the country’s commerce ministry.
• Reuters reports that the EU has approved a motion two weeks before an EU-China summit, condemning Beijing over its export curbs on rare earth minerals.
• Business news outlet Caixin reports that China’s largest polysilicon producers aim to “acquire struggling rivals” to “end a price war…batter[ing China’s] solar industry”.
• New research by Greenpeace finds that seven of 10 major lithium-ion battery producers “lacked clear targets” for decarbonisation, Bloomberg reports. 
• Guancha, citing Carbon Brief, says “China’s carbon emissions are expected to peak ahead of schedule”. 
• The NEA says it will actively support “end-use scenarios and business models” for green methanol, International Energy Net reports.

The fossil fuel industry provided more than $19m into Donald Trump’s inaugural fund, accounting for nearly 8% of all donations it raised, according to a new analysis covered by the Guardian. Established as charitable organizations, presidential inaugural funds are used to cover the costs of parades, galas and receptions when a new president enters the White House, the newspaper explains. The spending plans, analysed by human rights group Global Witness, raises “concerns about White House’s relationship with big oil”, it adds. The article notes that a previous report found that “fossil fuel interests poured an additional $96m into Trump’s re-election campaign and affiliated political action committees”.

MORE ON US

• US senator Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat from Rhode Island, tells Covering Climate Now that his party and the climate movement have been “too cautious and polite” and should be denouncing the fossil fuel industry’s “huge denial operation”.
• Heated reports on leaked audio that reveals gas industry representatives discussing how increasingly extreme and erratic weather conditions threaten fossil-fuel infrastructure.
• The Guardian is hosting the “gold standard” fifth US national climate assessment from 2023 after the Trump administration deleted the website housing it.
• The New York Times Climate Forward newsletter examines Trump’s latest move to “hamstring” renewables by making it harder for developers to claim the remaining tax credits, following the recent bill that severely limited future credits.
• Both the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal report on threats to installations of rooftop solar panels across the US.

German chancellor Friedrich Merz has reaffirmed his country’s 2045 climate neutrality goal, but cautioned against “overly high expectations” about reducing extreme weather events worldwide, citing Germany’s relatively small share of global emissions, reports Frankfurter Rundschau. The article also notes that German health minister Nina Warken has expanded the 2023 heat protection plan with measures for reducing indoor temperatures and providing shading options. Heat monitoring is being improved and a national crisis exercise will align heat protection with disaster and civil defence planning, it says. 

MORE ON GERMANY 

• The Daily Telegraph reports that heatwaves and low rainfall, combined with a lack of snowmelt from Swiss Alpine glaciers, have pushed water levels in the German economically strategic river Rhine to “unusual lows” for this time of year.

• The German government aims to expand domestic gas production – a recent agreement with the Netherlands on jointly exploiting gas fields in the North Sea marks the first step, says Handelsblatt. 

• According to a draft of the Hydrogen Acceleration Act obtained by Table.Briefings, Germany wants to “accelerate” hydrogen use by “simplifying and digitising planning, approval and procurement procedures” to help meet Germany’s climate targets.

There is further coverage of analysis from thinktank Ember showing that solar power became the EU’s largest single electricity source for the first time ever in June 2025. Energy Live News reports that “at least” 13 EU member states reported their “highest-ever month for solar generation, driven by new capacity installations and consistently sunny weather”. In total, solar produced 22.1% of the bloc’s electricity in June, reaching 40.5% in the Netherlands, it adds. According to pv magazine, the record solar generation “helped to keep Europe’s electricity grids stable through a heatwave in late June and early July”. The outlet explains that the heat brought with it a surge in electricity demand “as the use of air conditioners soared” and outages at some thermal power plants. Bloomberg reports that record solar generation in France has “sen[t] prices below zero as the grid gets flooded with cheap electricity”.

MORE ON EUROPE

• Hungary and allied member states are “casting doubt” on a deal concerning the EU’s 2040 climate target before the COP30 summit in November, Euractiv reports.

Nils Pratley, the Guardian’s financial editor, has an article considering the UK government’s decision not to proceed with “zonal pricing”, which would see different areas of the country pay different rates for their electricity. He says that energy secretary Ed Miliband’s resistance to it is “understandable”. Pratley writes: “The switch wouldn’t have happened until the mid-2030s, so it would have done nothing to reduce constraint costs out to 2030, his target for a clean power system.” Now, Pratley says the government will still need to deal with the “inefficiencies of the current setup and the now-vital question of bills”. He explains: “Miliband is reportedly under pressure from Downing Street to show how his project for clean power by 2030 will bring down bills for ordinary consumers. So he should be.” Ultimately, he suggests that the government may have to loosen its clean power by 2030 target in order to develop enough infrastructure. “Would it really hurt to do, say, 92% by 2032 if it saved consumers billions in their bills by ensuring the grid infrastructure is actually in place in time,” Prately writes. 

Meanwhile, BusinessGreen editor James Murray has penned an article titled: “Has the government made the right decision on zonal pricing?” And climate-sceptic energy consultant Kathryn Porter writes in the Daily Telegraph that the government’s decision not to go ahead with zonal pricing as a “rare outbreak of good judgment”.

MORE ON UK

• An editorial in the Scotsman looks at “why Keir Starmer’s fate depends on cutting our energy bills”.
• John Burn-Murdoch has a data-driven article in the Financial Times looking at air-conditioning needs in the UK and Europe.
• An opinion piece by Eir Nolsøe, the Daily Telegraph’s economics correspondent, looks at how “rising temperatures are hitting growth and smaller businesses are struggling”.

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Josh Gabbatiss, with contributions from Henry Zhang, and edited by Robert McSweeney.