EU member states have given their final approval to a new target to cut greenhouse gas emissions 90% by 2040, in a move that “press[es] ahead with the bloc’s ambitious climate agenda despite political resistance”, according to Reuters. The newswire explains that, in ⁠practice, the target will require an 85% emissions reduction from 1990 ​levels within Europe and the EU could pay for carbon credits to make up the remaining cuts. This is “weaker than Brussels’ original plan for the goal, reflecting disagreement between EU governments over the speed and ​cost of their green agenda”. [See Carbon Brief’s coverage of the target when it was originally proposed by the European Commission.] Reuters explains that a “reinforced majority” of EU countries’ ministers have now given the ‌final ⁠formal sign-off to the legally binding goal, with the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary opposing it. The article adds that the target will now pass into EU law.

MORE ON EUROPE

• Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni has “once again” called for the EU emissions trading system (ETS), which obliges major emitters to buy permits, to be “suspended pending a reform”, according to Agence France-Presse.
• An industry petition criticising the EU ETS implied its demands were supported by some 1,350 companies and associations, but “now some firms deny they signed up”, reports Politico.
• The EU is “set to discuss short-term options to lower energy prices in the coming years, while the green transition takes effect”, according to Bloomberg.
• The governments of seven EU member states, including the Netherlands ​and Sweden, have warned the European Commission “against interfering with the system that ‌sets Europe’s energy prices” in a bid to lower energy bills, reports Reuters.
• Euractiv reports on an impending geothermal energy plan for the EU, with supporters “pointed to the growing importance of home-grown energy”.

European electricity prices are “swinging wildly from daytime to evening” as the disruption to gas supplies resulting from the war in Iran “accentuates growing volatility in Europe’s power markets amid the rise of renewables”, reports the Financial Times. It explains that the fluctuations are partly explained by the rapid expansion of solar outpacing battery storage, which means European countries lean on fossil gas when the sun is down. The Guardian reports on experts saying that the UK “must double down on its clean energy drive to protect bill payers from increasingly volatile fossil fuel markets”. It cites research that shows the previous fossil-fuel energy crisis, driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, cost the EU and the UK $1.8tn between 2022 and 2025.

Wider coverage of the conflict’s disruption to fossil-fuel supplies continues, with Bloomberg noting that “fears of deeper disruption…are growing as the US and Israel continue to strike Iran, and the Islamic Republic retaliates”. Sky News notes that UK average diesel costs have hit a 16-month high. The Financial Times reports that the price of jet fuel has soared to a near four-year high. Bloomberg says Saudi Arabia has increased the price of its main oil grade for buyers in Asia “by the most since August 2022”. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has met with the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, to discuss rising energy prices, according to another Financial Times article. The Guardian reports that ministers in the UK are discussing the “possibility of intervening” to protect households who face “soaring” energy bills. 

Bloomberg reports that, in the US, costlier fuel could pose “more risks for Republicans at the midterm polls in November”. In an interview with Reuters, US president Donald Trump says that he does not have “any concern” about fuel costs rising, adding: “If they rise, they rise.” Nevertheless, Bloomberg also reports that the Trump administration is “weighing a range of options” for addressing the spike in prices, including releasing supplies from the emergency US oil reserve.

MORE ON ENERGY CRISIS

• A Financial Times article includes a visualisation of the “vulnerable” energy assets across the Gulf region that are under threat from the conflict.
• Bangladesh is preparing to cut deliveries to petrol pumps “as the country tries to stretch existing reserves in the face of an escalating conflict in the Middle East”, according to Bloomberg.
• Far-right political parties in the Netherlands have proposed ​keeping the Groningen gas ‌field – once Europe’s largest – open, with far-right politician Geert Wilders citing the “current geopolitical situation”, according to Reuters.
• Bloomberg reports that higher oil prices will mean “weaker currencies and renewed inflationary pressure for most African economies”.
• A long war in the Middle East “could lift demand for carbon credits in the compliance market”, if disruptions to gas supplies “compel industries to turn to cheaper, higher-emission fuels”, according to Bloomberg.

The Times reports on Carbon Brief analysis that finds “Britain used as much coal last year as it did in 1600, when Queen Elizabeth I was on the throne and some of William Shakespeare’s works were first performed on stage”. Last year was the first full year without any electricity generated from coal, due to the closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station, the newspaper explains. Another “key reason” for emissions declining last year was a “34-year low in demand for gas”, the newspaper says. It adds that Britain’s emissions have “more than halved since 1990”, while, at the same time, the size of the economy has almost doubled. 

Meanwhile, Reuters reports on the latest data showing “booming demand for electric vehicles (EVs)” from Chinese companies in the UK, alongside a fall in Tesla sales. The Daily Telegraph reports a “dip” in EV sales and the Times leads on the electric-vehicle share of sales “shrinking” in February, even though overall EV sales were higher than the same month last year. In other news, carmaker Nissan has said it could be forced to close its plant in Sunderland if the UK is not included in new “made in Europe” manufacturing rules proposed by the EU, according to the Guardian. [For more on the new rules, see Carbon Brief’s explainer.]

MORE ON UK

• The Guardian’s Down to Earth newsletter considers how UK cuts to climate aid overseas “could bankrupt ecosystems at home”.

Vanuatu says that the US Trump administration’s “attempt to sink” a UN resolution demanding countries act to tackle climate change has led to cuts to the proposal, but has not killed it, according to the Guardian. The newspaper explains that the US had demanded that Vanuatu drop its UN draft resolution that calls on the world to implement a landmark international court of justice (ICJ) ruling from last year. [See Carbon Brief’s coverage of the ICJ opinion.] However, the newspaper adds that “a new version of the resolution’s draft shared for debate this week still outlines that UN member countries ‘comply fully with their obligations under international law as they relate to climate change’ consistent with the ICJ ruling”.

Elsewhere, Prof Rebecca Strating, a professor of international relations, reflects in the Conversation on Canadian prime minister Mark Carney making an “impassioned pitch” for middle powers such as Canada and Australia to build new coalitions. She writes that there is a need for such nations to “cooperate on a wide range of issues”, including climate change.

MORE ON GEOPOLITICS

• Former UK diplomat Arthur Snell tells the Guardian that a warming planet is “accelerating conflict and migration”.

China has set an annual oil output target of 200m metric tonnes, or 4m barrels per day, according to the draft of its “15th five-year plan” released yesterday, reports Reuters. The target is an extension of a goal set by the National Energy Administration (NEA) in 2022, as the country looks to expand the “size of its undisclosed strategic oil reserves”, said the newswire. The draft also shows that China will continue to invest in rare earths to “maintain a competitive edge” and strengthen its supply chains, reports Bloomberg. Zhong Baoshen, a deputy to the National People’s Congress (NPC) and chairman of Longi Green Energy, said China’s solar sector should use “mergers and acquisitions” as a key means to promote “high-quality” industry development, reports business news outlet Jiemian. Zhang Tianren, an NPC deputy and chairman of Tianneng Group, called for refining market entry and exit mechanisms to end “blind expansion and overcapacity”, according to Jiemian.

MORE ON CHINA

• A People’s Daily article says that advancing “ecological and environmental zoning management” is a crucial pathway for China’s “green transformation”.
• China Daily publishes an article saying that China’s environmental code establishes China’s “first legal framework for climate action”.
• An industry expert tells China Chemical Industry News that developing green hydrogen is a “strategic” choice to “avoid future trade barriers”.
• Ruan Qiantu, a member of the CPPCC, calls for more efforts to advance the construction of a new power system in “megacities”, reports State Grid News.
• China’s utilisation rate of wind power and solar power reached 94.5% and 94.3%, respectively, reports BJX News.
• An editorial by the South China Morning Post says China is “determined to go full steam ahead with electric vessels”, the “next phase of its clean energy revolution”.

In the Conversation, a group of academics at Kings College London discuss the “geopolitical dividend of decarbonisation”, in the context of the current energy crisis, sparked by the US-Israeli attack on Iran. They imagine how the current situation would play out “in a world powered mostly by wind, solar and batteries rather than oil and gas”. Among the differences, they note that “the immediate macroeconomic shock would be weaker…The automatic link between Gulf instability and global inflation would loosen,” adding that “electricity generation would continue, largely insulated from disruption of gas supply”. However, they note that “this does not mean energy geopolitics would disappear. It would mutate,” with potential new chokepoints “in mineral processing hubs or semiconductor plants”. They conclude: “Decarbonisation is often framed as a climate necessity. It will also lead to a redistribution of geopolitical power, probably towards greater stability.”

MORE ENERGY CRISIS COMMENT

• Writing in the Climate Brink newsletter, Andrew Dessler points out a “hidden subsidy that few talk about” in the fossil fuel industry, stating that the US “spends more than $81bn every single year just to protect the global supply of oil”.
• An Economist editorial titled “Donald Trump must stop soon” notes that “America may be an energy exporter, but its voters detest costly petrol”.
• In his Wall Street Journal newsletter, Ed Ballard considers the “energy-security argument for going green” in the context of the current Middle East conflict and disruption to fossil fuel supplies.
• The Financial Times’ Lex column is titled: “Why oil at $200 a barrel is no longer unthinkable.”

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Josh Gabbatiss, with contributions from Henry Zhang and Anika Patel. It was edited by Robert McSweeney.

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