Oil and natural gas prices have “soared” after the US navy seized an Iranian ship during a “chaotic weekend that saw Tehran firing at vessels and reimposing controls in the strait of Hormuz”, reports Bloomberg. The outlet continues: “Brent jumped as much as 7.9%, erasing most of its declines on Friday after a reopening of the key waterway was announced, while European gas surged as much as 11%. Tehran closed the chokepoint again on Saturday, after it said a US blockade of Iran-linked ships violated a ceasefire agreement that ends Tuesday.” On Sunday, US president Donald Trump said the US had seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that tried to get around the naval blockade, reports the Associated Press. Earlier, Trump said his representatives would be in Pakistan today for negotiations, notes BBC News. But Iran’s state media said Tehran had “no plans for now to participate” in the talks, although Iranian officials have not clarified the country’s position yet, the outlet adds. Oil prices are back near $90 a barrel, says the Wall Street Journal.

On Friday afternoon, oil prices had “tumbled” after Iran said it would reopen the strait of Hormuz, reports the Financial Times. Trump posted in block capitals on Truth Social that the route was “Fully open and ready for full passage. Thank you!”, says Axios. However, even before the weekend’s developments, analysts were questioning whether these announcements “were anywhere near enough to provide ship owners the confidence needed to resume transit”, says Axios. One analyst tells Reuters that “within hours…there were already tankers ​that were fired upon by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), leading to more fears from the shippers on attempting to leave”. However, “more than a dozen” tankers did manage to pass through, says another Reuters article. In an interview with BBC News, a former IRGC commander says that Iran would “never” give up control of the strait and that “Iran will decide the right of passage, including permissions for vessels to pass through”. This will soon be enshrined in law, he tells the outlet.

MORE ON IRAN WAR

• The world has lost more than ”$50bn worth of crude oil that has not been produced since the Iran ‌war began nearly 50 days ago”, says Reuters.
• Politico’s reporting from last week’s International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings concludes that the Iran war is “setting the world on a new energy path”.
• Chris Wright, the Trump administration’s energy secretary, has said that US gasoline prices might not come back below $3 a gallon until 2027, reports the Guardian.
• The US government has extended a sanctions exemption on the sale of some Russian oil, reports the New York Times, two days after saying it would not.
• Reuters publishes two commentaries on the stop-start shipping traffic through the strait of Hormuz.
• BBC News: “The insider [oil] trading suspicions looming over Trump’s presidency.”

The European Commission will encourage remote working and public transport subsidies to cut fossil fuel use in response to the Iran war, reports the Financial Times. According to a document seen by the newspaper, the commission will present member states with a string of measures to offer “immediate relief” on high energy prices. The recommendations, based on those implemented after Russia invaded Ukraine, include suggesting businesses ensure at least one day of home working and lowering VAT on heat pumps, boilers and solar panels, the FT says. It adds: “Brussels will also set ‘ambitious’, but undisclosed, targets for electrification, according to the document, which contains numerous gaps and has yet to be finalised.” The package of measures is set to be presented on Wednesday, notes Politico.

Meanwhile, the Financial Times reports that the commission is “ready to require jet fuel stocks to be shared across the EU”. It continues: “Energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen said the European Commission would increase monitoring of fuel stocks and refining capacities, co-ordinate supplies and potentially redistribute jet fuel across the bloc, echoing pandemic-era efforts to share vaccine supplies.” Jørgensen tells the newspaper: “We are moving from a crisis that has so far been primarily a crisis of too high prices. Now, we’re moving towards a crisis of supply. This we will see first and primarily on jet fuels. We are approaching this very rapidly.” Euractiv and Reuters have similar reporting. The International Air Transport Association warned on Friday that flights in Europe could start to be cancelled from the end of May ​due to a lack of jet ‌fuel, reports Reuters.

MORE ON EUROPE

• Speaking after a meeting of 51 countries on Friday, UK prime minister Keir Starmer announced that the UK and France will lead a multinational mission to protect commercial shipping routes in the strait of Hormuz, reports BBC News – but only after fighting in the region ends.
• The European Commission has called on Turkey to reverse its “unacceptable” decision not to invite the Republic of Cyprus to a preparatory UN climate meeting last month, reports Euractiv.
• The International Monetary Fund has urged the EU not to pause its emissions trading system, warning it would come with “huge” risks that might jeopardise investment, reports Bloomberg.
• Sales of fully electric cars in Europe’s main car markets jumped by almost one-third in the first quarter of 2026, says Reuters.
• Writing for Euractiv, Sara Aagesen – Spain’s third vice-president and minister for ecological transition – says that “Europe’s dependence on fossil fuels remains a strategic vulnerability”.

The latest global energy review from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that the world’s emissions rose at a slower rate in 2025 as the expansion of solar power helped developing countries offset emissions growth in advanced economies, reports the Economic Times. It continues: “Energy-related CO2 emissions ⁠rose ⁠0.4% in 2025, slowing from recent years as a boom in ​solar power supply dominated changes in the supply mix…Overall global energy demand growth eased to 1.3%, just below the average of the previous decade, while gas demand growth slowed sharply because of relatively ⁠high prices ‌in the first half of the year.” The report finds that solar was the “single biggest contributor to global energy supply growth in 2025”, says Electrek, which notes that it “accounted for more than 25% of the increase – the first time a modern renewable has led global primary energy growth”. Bloomberg has the headline: “Global 2025 power demand rose as EV, data centres grew, IEA says.” Carbon Brief’s Dr Simon Evans has a detailed thread on BlueSky unpacking the report’s highlights.

MORE ON ENERGY TRANSITION

• A report from the Global Wind Energy Council shows that the wind industry installed a record 165 ‌gigawatts of new capacity last year, up 40% from 2024 and mostly driven by China, says Reuters.
• A report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) reveals that a “predicted ‘coal comeback’ due to the Iran war energy crisis has not materialised”, reports Euronews.

Ed Miliband will “double down” on Labour’s commitment to net-zero this week, insisting that, as fossil fuel prices soar, “the era of clean energy security must come of age”, reports the Guardian. The UK energy secretary is expected to announce a package of new policies tomorrow in response to the unfolding energy crisis, the newspaper explains: “These will include speeding up the warm homes plan to encourage the rapid take-up of solar panels and electric vehicles; expanding the use of solar on public land; and delinking gas and electricity prices, to cut consumers’ bills.” In his speech, Miliband will warn that, “as we face the second global energy shock in less than five years, the lesson for our country is clear; the era of fossil fuel security is over”, the article says. However, it adds, Miliband “will dodge for now the controversial question of whether to allow drilling in the Jackdaw and Rosebank fields”. 

At the same time, in an open letter to civil servants, energy minister Michael Shanks, has warned civil servants that delays to net-zero targets are unacceptable, reports the Daily Telegraph. According to the article, Shanks wrote: “We have been clear that further slippage is not acceptable and have set expectations for a firm, coordinated response.”

MORE ON UK

• A Chinese wind turbine maker has accused Ed Miliband of blocking a £1.5bn factory for “political” reasons, reports the Daily Telegraph.
• UK data centres are “demonstrating surging interest in connecting to the natural gas network after developers have faced significant delays accessing the power grid”, says Bloomberg.
• The Sunday Times: “The myths and realities of North Sea oil.”
• A “giant” new gas field in Yorkshire is “to be exploited for mining Bitcoin rather than boosting Britain’s energy supplies”, claims the Daily Telegraph.
• Entrepreneur and heat-pump sceptic Dale Vince says that money allocated for grants to subsidise a switch to heat pumps should instead be spent on the military, reports the Sun. [See the recent Carbon Brief factcheck of Vince’s claims.]
• The Observer: “Millions paid out to keep Shetland windfarm idle – even in a gale.” 

China’s domestic nuclear-power investment rose 10% from a year ago, hitting a record 161bn yuan ($23.6bn) in 2025, as the country “aims to accelerate its green transition while bolstering energy security”, says financial news outlet Caixin, citing a report released by the China Nuclear Energy Association. China’s nuclear-power capacity reached a record 125 gigawatts (GW), ranking first globally, according to state-run newspaper China Daily. The newspaper also says that China has 60 nuclear-power units in commercial operation, with 36 under construction which accounts for more than 50% of the global total nuclear-power capacity under construction. Seven nuclear power reactors are scheduled to be completed and commissioned in China this year, reports Bloomberg. The Shanghai-based Paper publishes a comment saying that the “forward shift” of nuclear power in China’s energy installation mix reflects the power system’s attempt to “find a new balance” between “security, affordability, and sustainability”. Relatedly, Bloomberg has an article headlined: “China revives coal-to-gas projects as energy security frays.” 

In ongoing coverage of a recent press conference, Wang Changlin, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top economic planner, said that China will strengthen oil and gas reserve capacity and promote peaking of oil and coal consumption over the next five years, according to Science and Technology Daily. Wang also called for utilising policies such as “full market entry of renewables and direct green electricity supply”, plus “actively participating in global climate governance”, adds the newspaper. Reuters reports that the NDRC also said China will “continue to diversify its energy imports” to cope with “emergency situations”. Mao Shengyong, deputy head of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said that the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year during the first quarter, reports energy news outlet International Energy Net. State-supporting Global Times reports that China has adopted “comprehensive measures” to ensure sufficient domestic oil supply and stable market operations amid global energy turmoil.

MORE ON CHINA

• China and Vietnam have agreed to “strengthen cooperation on climate change response and deepen cooperation in the new energy sector”, according to Xinhua.
• Italian deputy prime minister and foreign minister, Antonio Tajani, writes in China Daily that China has “positive effects on the stability of energy markets”.
• China has launched a satellite to detect greenhouse gases, reports Xinhua.
• Economist Maria Luiza Falcão Silva writes in China Daily that China’s energy security is “increasingly grounded in industrial capacity and technological transformation”.
• Financial Times: “Foreign carmakers turn to Chinese technology to remain relevant.”

The price of new battery electric vehicles (EVs) has fallen below petrol cars in the UK for the first time, in what the Guardian describes as a “significant milestone in Britain’s transition away from fossil fuels”. According to analysis by car sales website Autotrader, the average price of a new EV on its website was £42,620, compared with £43,405 for a new petrol model, the Guardian explains. The higher upfront cost of EVs has long been one of the “big sticking points” preventing some drivers switching, the article says, while total running costs “have been lower for some time”. Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans notes on BlueSky that the UK’s Climate Change Committee said in a report last year that price parity between EVs and petrol cars had been expected by 2028. The Daily Telegraph, Independent and BusinessGreen also cover the analysis, while the Daily Mail has the same conclusion from a different data source. The Times chooses this moment to publish an article on “how the electric car dream turned toxic”.

Japan has unveiled a new name for days that reach 40C or above, after the country experienced its hottest summer on record last year, reports BBC News. In a national vote where almost half a million votes were cast, the term “kokushobi” was selected, the outlet explains: “The description, introduced by Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) on Friday, uses koku – meaning harsh or cruel – to describe the heat.” The Straits Times says that days with “blistering temperatures rising to 40C and above will now be branded ‘cruelly hot’”. It adds: “Coming in second was ‘super-extremely hot day’ or ‘cho-mosho-bi’, while ‘sauna day’, ‘stay-at-home day’ and ‘boiling day’ were also among the choices.” Bloomberg quotes the JMA as saying they will use the term to “effectively raise awareness and encourage caution” among the public. The Japan Times adds that the agency already categorises days with peak temperatures of 25C as “natsubi” (“summer day”), 30C as “manatsubi” (“midsummer day”) and 35C as “mōshobi” (“extremely hot day”).

MORE ON JAPAN

• As Japan opens its 16th reactor since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident, Politico looks at how Japan is “embracing nuclear”.
• A Guardian editorial on how Japan’s famous cherry blossom is blooming earlier in the year warns that global warming is “unsettling nature’s rhythms”.

Writing in his Guardian column, George Monbiot says that US president Donald Trump “has done more to accelerate the energy transition than anyone else alive”. Linking to Carbon Brief analysis, Monbiot says that the short-term response of some governments to the Iran war “has been to favour fossil energy”, yet “many are now seeking to reduce or break their dependency. The logic of switching to renewables looks ineluctable.” At the same time, “the war has triggered a global surge in demand for electric vehicles (EVs), solar panels, heat pumps and other fossil-free technologies”, he adds. These reactions show that “we are on the cusp of vast, cascading shifts in energy supply and storage”, writes Monbiot: “Any country that fails to respond will remain trapped in the fossil age, facing high bills and insecurity, while others transform their economies.”

Elsewhere, Prof Michael Grubb, professor of energy and climate change at the UCL Institute of Sustainable Resources, writes in Prospect magazine that the Iran war is a “powerful reminder of the case against fossil fuels”. In the Sunday Times, former Conservative prime minister Rishi Sunak writes that “we must do everything we can to increase our energy security – from more drilling in the North Sea to more nuclear to better batteries”. In the Daily Telegraph, former Conservative cabinet minister Tom Tugendhat criticises energy secretary Ed Miliband, saying that his “hubris is making net-zero unachievable”. Tugendhat argues that Miliband is “ignor[ing] the Promethean opportunity for Britain” in North Sea fossil fuels. Daily Express political editor Martyn Brown asks why “Miliband [is] being so stubborn over North Sea drilling?” [Carbon Brief has debunked multiple North Sea claims in a recent factcheck.]

MORE UK COMMENT

• The Financial Times “weekend essay” by Prof Adam Hanieh, a professor of political economy and global development, warns of the “coming global food crisis” brought on by the Iran war and the world‘s “fossil fuel-based food system”.
• Writing in the Guardian, Jason Momoa – actor and UNEP Advocate for Life Below Water – says that this year “must mark a turning point” as “coral reefs are nearing extinction”.
• Accompanying a three-part series on “China shock 2.0”, a Financial Times editorial says the “Made in China” brand is “now increasingly associated with high-end industrial products such as electric vehicles, solar panels and batteries”.
• An editorial in the climate-sceptic Sun yet again calls for North Sea drilling and also supports Dale Vince’s comments on spending heat-pump grants on the military. (See News above.)
• Cormac Lucey, who writes about economics for the Irish edition of the Sunday Times, says that “fuel protests are symptoms of a growing economic divide”.
• Quoting numerous unnamed sources, a trio of Daily Telegraph writers attack “the cult of Ed Miliband”.

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Robert McSweeney, with contributions from Henry Zhang and Anika Patel. It was edited by Leo Hickman.

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