Global temperatures are expected to rise to close to 2C above pre-industrial levels in the next five years, according to data from the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported by the Financial Times. The newspaper continues: “Scientists expect a range of knock-on effects from such a climb to near the 2C mark, including a fall in crop yields and more than a third of the world’s population being exposed to extreme heat. This does not represent a breach of the 2015 Paris accord target to limit warming since pre-industrial times to well-under 2C and preferably to 1.5C, as the threshold is typically measured over at least two decades. But a temporary breach of the 2C level could occur over the near term, as the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide behind global warming was at its highest level in 800,000 years, the WMO said.” The Guardian reports that, according to the data, there is a 70% chance that five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. It continues: “[The WMO] also reported an 86% likelihood that 1.5C would be passed in at least one of the next five years, up from 40% in the 2020 report. In 2024, the 1.5C threshold was breached on an annual basis for the first time – an outcome that was considered implausible in any of the five-year predictions before 2014.” The Press Trust of India adds that, overall, the report concludes that “the average global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is expected to be between 1.2C and 1.9C higher than it was between 1850 and 1900”.

From 2022 to 2023, 68% of China’s overseas power investments went to renewable energy sources, including wind and solar projects, surpassing fossil fuels for the first time since the early 2000s, according to new analysis from Boston University’s Global Development Policy Centre covered by Inside Climate News. Meanwhile, China is “redirecting” its electric vehicle (EV) strategy towards African countries amid “mounting tariffs from the US and EU”, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reports, adding the shift is “evidenced by more Chinese EV makers launching flagship models and setting up manufacturing plants” on the continent. SolarQuarter reports that Saudi Arabia’s minister of energy, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, met with China’s climate envoy Liu Zhenmin in Riyadh to discuss “deepen[ing] bilateral collaboration on climate action” and “alignment ahead of” COP30. SCMP also says Chinese premier Li Qiang urged Malaysian prime minister Anwar Ibrahim on Monday in Kuala Lumpur to “continue expanding” trade and investment cooperation in the “green economy”.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that regions in southern China, including the provinces Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangdong and Yunnan, are expected to experience torrential rain that is “set to replenish soil moisture in some parched agricultural regions”. The rainfall will also “ease drought conditions in key wheat-growing provinces”, Reuters reports. Separately, Bloomberg says that China’s peak electricity demand this summer is expected to be about 100 gigawatts (GW) higher than last year, driven by cooling demand from air conditioners.

Elsewhere, China Environment News reports that, at a recent “Beautiful China” forum held in Shandong province, Chinese environment minister Huang Runqiu stated that, for China’s fifteenth five-year plan, China’s climate goals will include “promoting the construction of Beautiful China pioneer zones”, “collaborating to reduce pollution and carbon emissions” and “cultivating and growing green productivity”. Industry outlet International Energy Net says China’s commerce ministry has called for supporting green electricity trading and carbon accounting in “national-level economic and technological development zones”. Power news outlet Dianlian Xinmei assesses key issues facing the “development of virtual power plants”.

The Standard reports on backlash to comments made by the UK’s hard-right Reform party yesterday claiming that they could fund a series of tax cuts by scrapping net-zero commitments. According to the newspaper, leader Nigel Farage claimed in a speech that “net-zero” is “costing the exchequer an extraordinary £40bn plus every year”, while new Reform MP Sarah Pochin, who won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, told Times Radio: “We have calculated that if we scrap these net-zero white elephants projects, that the Conservatives were just as committed to as this Labour government, that over five years we can save £225bn.” The Standard says: “Reform sources said the £225bn figure of savings from ditching net-zero projects was based on a report by the Institute for Government. But the Institute for Government stressed that the bulk of this green investment, highlighted in the paper called ‘paying for net-zero’ was due to come from the private sector, not public funds.” Jill Rutter, senior fellow at the Institute for Government, tells the Standard: “Cancelling private investment does not save the government money.” The Standard continues: “Reform also appeared to have added up the net-zero costs in the IfG analysis but not to have taken into account the tens of billions of pounds of savings from going green highlighted in it.” In response to Farage’s speech, an analysis in the Times also points out that “two-thirds or more of net zero investment comes through the private sector, not the government”. It adds: “Finally, such costs do not take into account the damage caused by climate change itself, which Farage disputes but most scientists do not. The [Climate Change Committee] concluded that the cost of dealing with unmitigated climate change by 2050 would be ‘significantly higher’ than the cost of reaching net-zero.” A Guardian analysis says Farage’s plans are “riddled with errors, such as including private sector investment as part of his calculation for how much he could save by ending environmental spending”. In its coverage of Reform’s plans, the Financial Times adds: “The Climate Change Committee said earlier this year that meeting the UK’s climate targets would cost the government between £6bn and £23bn of additional capital investment by the year 2035, falling to between £1bn and £4bn by 2050. Starmer’s government has not yet committed to making those investments.” The climate-sceptic Daily Telegraph stands apart by not factchecking Farage’s net-zero spending claims. The National in Scotland reports on how Farage’s net-zero spending claims have been debunked by experts on social media. The Times also has a sketch joking about how Farage’s policy ambitions rely on “cancelling woke”.

In other UK news, BBC News reports that the UK’s largest bioethanol factory faces closure after the removal of a 19% tariff on US ethanol imports, which was part of a recent UK-US trade deal. BBC News also reports that the Labour government could today announce plans to cut environmental rules that require developers in England to improve wildlife habitats “to make it easier to build homes on smaller sites”. BBC News further reports that an appeal against a new “net-zero gas power station” in Teesside has been lost. The Guardian reports on a “standoff” between the Treasury and ministers over public service cuts, noting: “The energy secretary, Ed Miliband, is understood to be still fighting to keep cash for a major programme of insulation, which was a key part of the government’s net-zero strategy, though his department is expected to get significant capital investment in energy infrastructure including nuclear.” BusinessGreen reports that campaigners have warned that scrapping the programme risks reversing energy efficiency gains. The Times reports that two of the UK’s biggest battery storage developers have come out in favour of regional electricity pricing.

Elsewhere, the Daily Mail has a full-page article by notorious climate sceptic Ross Clark claiming that a new “AI data centre” planned by Labour could emit “as much CO2 as an airport”. [The UK’s National Energy System Operator has previously outlined how it plans to meet increased data centre energy demand with clean power.] The climate-sceptic Daily Telegraph has a trio of stories, including one warning that Labour is doing “irreparable damage” to the North Sea’s oil industry, one saying it is “poised to miss” its 2030 offshore wind targets and one on how costs for retrofitting homes might be passed from landlords to tenants.

Indonesia has outlined plans to add 69.5 gigawatts (GW) of power capacity by 2034, with “much of it” from renewables but also new coal-fired power plants, the Strait Times reports. The plan “walk[s] back Indonesia’s commitment on retiring coal assets”, the publication says. It quotes energy minister Bahlil Lahadalia saying: “Coal should not be considered an illicit commodity. It’s ok to use if we need.” The Jakarta Post reports that Indonesia plans to add 6.3GW of new coal power in the next decade. Bloomberg says that, of the planned new capacity, “about three-quarters of that will be from renewable sources, with the rest supplied by gas and coal”. India’s Economic Times reports that Indonesia’s government said its 2025-34 energy plan requires $183bn in investment.

Australia has given preliminary approval to extend the life of its biggest and oldest liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant from 2030 to 2070, “raising questions about the nation’s climate agenda”, Bloomberg says. It continues: “The decision comes after prime minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor government was earlier this month resoundingly reelected in a poll that backed his plans to boost renewable power generation and reverse Australia’s reputation as a climate laggard. [The] North West Shelf [LNG project] is one of the nation’s biggest polluters, and emissions over a 50-year period – including from the burning of its gas abroad – are estimated to be about 10 times Australia’s current annual total.” The Guardian says that the “extension could be linked to up to 6bn tonnes of greenhouse gases being emitted in the decades ahead, mostly after the gas is shipped and burned overseas”. It adds that experts have warned that pollution from the plant threatens “a globally significant collection of rock art in the Murujuga cultural landscape”, with Unesco previously saying “industrial facilities should be removed from the region if Australia wanted to win world heritage listing”. ABC News says the approval gives the plant “permission to operate the facility to 2070, though it may not necessarily remain in operation until that date”. The publication continues: “It does not involve the opening of any new gas fields.” Elsewhere, the Guardian reports that city councillors in Adelaide have voted to approve a new Tesla battery repurposing facility, despite “anti-Musk sentiment” in the local community.

Monsoon rains “hit the coast” of India’s southwestern state of Kerala “eight days earlier than usual” on Saturday, Reuters reports, marking the “earliest arrival in 16 years and providing the promise of a bumper harvest and relief from a gruelling heatwave”. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the onset of the southwest monsoon – “the lifeblood of the country’s $4tn economy” – is its earliest since 23 May 2009, the newswire adds. On Monday, the monsoon rains arrived in Mumbai “in full force” for the earliest time in history, throwing “life out of gear” as many pockets of the city “reeled under water logging, traffic and slow train services”, the Indian Express reports. It adds that this is “Mumbai’s wettest May in the past 107 years”, with senior meteorologists “point[ing] to the active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as a crucial contributing factor”, while the IMD attributes the monsoon’s fast movement to “a low pressure area” in the Arabian Sea. While the IMD “maintains that global warming has only a limited influence on a massive system like the monsoon”, ​​India Today points to the role of climate change as a potential driver that shapes its “onset and spread”. Bloomberg reports that India has launched a new, higher-resolution climate model called the Bharat Forecast System that it hopes “can significantly help boost its capabilities” to provide more localised predictions by “doubling the level of detail” possible. It quotes IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra saying: “We will focus on all weather parameters, with rain being the key.” It quotes him adding that the new model “will enhance accuracy, massively support farmers and improve public safety”.

Ban Ki-moon, former UN secretary general, former South Korean foreign minister and deputy chair of the Elders, writes for SCMP that, as the US “stands back from the global climate stage”, China “has “the opportunity to take the long view and lead by example” on the energy transition. Ban adds that, regarding China’s upcoming nationally determined contribution (NDC), a “30% reduction in emissions by 2035 from a 2023 peak is both achievable and necessary”. He says such a target would “show [China] is serious about meeting its 2060 net-zero goal”. Ban concludes: “In my regular visits to China, I am struck by the farsightedness of its leaders. In this moment of peril and promise, China has the opportunity to take the long view and lead by example: not through confrontation but collaboration. It would prove cooperation remains possible, even in a fragmented world.”

A Lex column in the Financial Times says the UK’s goal to get nearly all of its power from clean energy by 2030 is “probably not achievable”, but still “helpful”. It continues: “Ambition, at the very least, spurs action. In the UK’s case, BloombergNEF sees clean power generation capacity rising to about 130GW by 2030, not quite reaching the numbers implied by the country’s target, but still showing impressive growth. And efforts to speed up permitting and reform the grid connection process are under way. If UK policymakers want to pick a tough road despite the potential fallout from failure, then more power to them.”

New research finds that sea ice strength and pressure along two major Arctic shipping routes will decline “substantially” over the next two decades under strong warming. Using four high-resolution climate models, the study explores changes in sea ice area, thickness, strength and pressure across the Northwest Passage and Northeast Passage. It projects that the mean September sea ice strength and pressure over the period 2041-50 along both routes will decrease by an “an order of magnitude” relative to 2015-24 levels. Changes in sea ice concentration, rather than thickness or velocity, is expected to cause the decrease.