The Wall Street Journal says that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed the “largest release of oil reserves in its history” to bring down soaring oil prices caused by the US-Israel war on Iran. Citing “officials”, the newspaper says that the proposal would “exceed the 182m barrels of oil that IEA member countries put onto the market in two releases in 2022” after Russia invaded Ukraine. It adds that the IEA outlined the proposal at a meeting of the IEA’s 32 member countries yesterday and that nations are due to decide on it today. Bloomberg says the IEA was asked by G7 countries to “prepare scenarios” for releasing emergency oil stockpiles. 

Reuters says that crude oil prices are due to remain above $95 a barrel in the next two months “as the Iran war disrupts supplies”, before falling to around $70 by the end of this year, according to a report from the US Energy Information Administration. Research consultancy Wood Mackenzie, meanwhile, says oil prices could yet reach $150 per barrel, according to Reuters. Bloomberg assesses the inflation risks from a “brief surge” above $100 per barrel earlier this week. The Financial Times takes a closer look at this period, calling it “one of the wildest days the oil market has ever seen”. 

Saudi Arabia’s state-backed oil company says it will restore around 70% of its oil shipments in the coming days, reports the Times. The company says there would be “catastrophic consequences” for global oil markets if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked, according to the Guardian. Bloomberg notes that the biggest gas export plant in the world in Qatar has not exported a shipment for five days, which is the longest period since 2008. The “tense global hunt” for gas is shifting some supply flows from Europe to Asia, says another Bloomberg article. 

Meanwhile, just two vessels not associated with Iran or Russia have travelled through the Strait of Hormuz since US president Donald Trump claimed he would “ensure the free flow of energy to the world” last Friday, reports the Guardian. The US clarified that no oil tanker was escorted by its navy through the strait, “refuting an earlier, since-deleted” post by the country’s energy secretary Chris Wright, according to Bloomberg. Reuters examines the “challenges” in passing shipments through the narrow strait. 

MORE ON ENERGY 

• The New York Times says that the war in Iran has “exposed the country’s water woes, which had been pushed to the brink by climate change, excessive agricultural use and decades of mismanagement”. 
• The chief of the European Commission says reducing the bloc’s nuclear energy sector was a “strategic mistake”, says Reuters. Pressure is mounting on the EU to propose a “concrete” response to the crisis, according to Politico. 
• The price of methanol, which is “essential to biofuel production” has increased in south-east Asia, reports Bloomberg. 
• Vietnam will “tap an emergency fund to cool surging fuel prices”, reports Agence France-Presse. 
• Oil giants Chevron and Shell are trying to secure the first big oil production deals with Venezuela since the US captured the country’s former president Nicolás Maduro in January, says Reuters. 
• Renew Economy reports on the “billions spent each year by [the] fossil-fuel industry demonising renewables”. 

The Guardian covers a new study which finds that one-third of the world’s population now lives in areas where “heat severely limits activity”. The newspaper says: “Rising temperatures, driven by the continued burning of fossil fuels, are making it difficult even for many young, healthy adults to do basic physical activities, such as housework or walking up stairs during daylight hours at the height of the summer, the report warns.” The Guardian notes that people in “poorer countries or regions” are worst-affected, adding that “in some tropical and subtropical regions, heat restricts outdoor activity for older adults for between one-quarter and one-third of the year”.

A new report from the UK’s Climate Change Committee (CCC) outlines that achieving net-zero by 2050 will have less of a financial impact than the kind of fossil-fuel price rises experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, reports the Financial Times. It explains CCC modelling that shows “average household energy bills would jump by 59% in the event of a price rise of the same magnitude as that seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, if fossil fuel reliance remained heavy”. The newspaper says this contrasts with a 4% increase under the CCC’s “balanced pathway” to cut emissions. The Guardian adds that the report finds that “eliminating the UK’s reliance on fossil fuels by adopting renewable energy and green technologies, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, would be the best and most cost-effective option for the future economy”. Bloomberg and the climate-sceptic Daily Telegraph also cover the report. [For more, see Carbon Brief’s coverage.]

MORE ON UK 

• Experts tell the Guardian that easing the UK government’s windfall tax on the North Sea would not benefit consumers and “merely fatten the profits of oil and gas companies”. 
• An official from the Office for Budget Responsibility says UK inflation could remain at 3% by the end of this year if oil and gas prices remain high, reports the Financial Times. 
• Nigel Farage says his hard-right, climate-sceptic Reform party would reverse the government’s planned increase in fuel duty and “cut billions of pounds in net-zero spending”, says the Financial Times. 
• An article in the Independent says: “The UK doesn’t have only two days’ supply of gas left: Here’s why you shouldn’t panic.” 
• UK petrol prices have “soared by the most in four years in the last week”, reports Bloomberg. 

China’s oil imports increased by 16% year-on-year in the first two months of the year, as the country looked to “guard against supply disruptions” and “fill commercial and strategic stockpiles”, reports Bloomberg. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reports that China’s stockpiles can provide the country with around 120 days of import cover, according to estimates by Chim Lee of the Economist Intelligence Unit. Separately, China’s trade with the EU rose 19.9% year-on-year, according to customs data on Tuesday, reports the state-supporting newspaper Global Times. It quotes Li Yong, with the China Society for WTO Studies, saying that the growth demonstrates that China’s low-carbon technologies “align well with Europe’s green transition needs”. Reuters reports that China’s exports of rare earths rose 23% from a year earlier. SCMP publishes an article explaining why China’s officials now “have to study rare earths and supply chains”.

MORE ON CHINA

• China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) will revise the renewable energy law and the water law over the coming year, reports BJX News. Half of China’s installed capacity of wind and solar power belongs to central state-owned enterprises, according to the SASAC, reports International Energy Net.
• An article by Xinhua says that carbon reduction goals are not only environmental targets but also “core drivers for a comprehensive transformation”.
• Yue Zongwei, with the Development Research Centre of the State Council, writes in People’s Daily that the task of building a “Beautiful China” remains “formidable”.
• Economic Daily carries an article saying that advancing the dual carbon control system faces challenges over the next five years.
• Jiemian cites BloombergNEF, saying Chinese wind turbine makers have taken the top six positions among global manufacturers for the first time in 2025.
• Dialogue Earth cites examples in China saying that climate change is a “major factor in the global increase of chronic inflammatory diseases”.

The New York Times reports that the amount of solar energy installed in the US dropped by 14% between 2024 and 2025, according to an industry report. Solar power is still the “largest source of new electricity generation added to the electric grid”, the newspaper notes, but installations dropped “as the Trump administration sought to impede the growth of renewable energy”. The report from Solar Energy ​Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie outlines that “solar power remains economically competitive, especially as electricity demand from data centers dedicated to AI surges to record highs”, notes Reuters.

Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney is quoted in Mint as saying: “India’s energy demand is increasing faster than anywhere else in the world [and a]s an energy superpower, Canada is well-positioned to seize this opportunity.” Carney’s remarks come “amid an unfolding energy crisis and rising fear[s]” around the availability of commercial liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) across many Indian cities, the story explains, given that a “third of India’s natural gas imports have been disrupted” by the war on Iran. According to a statement cited in the story, India and Canada welcomed “[i]ntensified engagement on LPG with the aim to conclude Canada’s first long-term LPG arrangement with India”. 

India’s petroleum and natural gas minister Hardeep Singh Puri told reporters in an “informal” media briefing that India’s energy imports are “continuing to flow in from different sources and routes”, the Times of India writes. While Puri attempted to reassure domestic consumers via a tweet that there “is no shortage and no reason to panic”, India’s cabinet “was informed that issues with LPG supplies were expected to be resolved within a day or two”, the Hindustan Times reports. It says that the impact of “curtailed imports was already rippling through commercial consumers”, with “industry bodies warn[ing] of mass closures affecting hundreds of thousands of establishments”. The Hindu takes a closer look at these impacts across major Indian cities and states.

MORE ON SOUTH ASIA

• The Times of India reports a $300bn deal to build a new oil refinery in Texas “backed by India’s Reliance Industries”.
• ​​Al Jazeera covers Pakistan’s “sweeping emergency austerity and fuel conservation measures”, ranging from cuts to cabinet salaries to caps on wedding guests.
• The Hindu reports that India has sent a “major consignment” of diesel to Bangladesh as “Dhaka deals with [a] critical [petroleum] shortfall”.
• Reuters reports that “long queues formed at fuel stations across Sri Lanka” as the conflict “stoked fears of another fuel shortage” reminiscent of the country’s 2022 crisis.

Guardian Australia’s climate and environment editor Adam Morton writes that a “significant secondary issue” in the Iran war “is that this is not a great time in history to be dependent on the global fossil-fuel trade”. He writes: “More than ever, going big on renewable energy makes sense, financially and from a national security perspective.” Morton says that amid rising oil prices, “accelerating” climate change and other factors, “it makes a pretty compelling case that this is the moment to do more to help Australians make a clean shift that the evidence says would make their lives cheaper, healthier and less at the whim of volatile fossil fuel markets”.

MORE IRAN COMMENT 

• The chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, Martin Wolf, writes that one of the economic lessons from the war in Iran is the “need to invest in renewables, in order to reduce vulnerability”. 
• Bloomberg opinion columnist Liam Denning writes: “This oil shock is testing the limits of US energy dominance.” 
• Co-founder of Energy Aspects, Amrita Sen, writes in the Financial Times that the current energy crisis “will continue to reshape oil markets for a long time to come”. 
• The Daily Telegraph international business editor, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, writes that “Trump risks his very own Suez crisis”.
• In the Financial Times, senior fellow at the Stimson Center Emma Ashford says that a “succession of US foreign policy choices has destabilised the oil industry”.

A Guardian opinion article from Common Wealth director Mathew Lawrence focuses on the impacts of the Iran war in the UK. Lawrence says: “Illegal war and geopolitical disruption are sending fossil fuel prices soaring – and because our electricity market turns volatile gas prices into higher electricity bills, families here risk paying the cost…[The government’s] instinct has been to double down on clean power. That has strong merit – but understanding that strategy’s limits shows why deeper reform is urgently necessary.” He concludes: “Price stability and lower system costs requires not just new energy technology but a different energy economy: reformed markets, public ownership of essential infrastructure and investment that works for bill-payers rather than bondholders. Clean power can break our dependence on gas, but only a public power system can stop the extraction of rent.”

Offering an alternative view, the leader of the opposition Conservatives Kemi Badenoch claims in the Daily Telegraph that the UK’s issues are due to “eco-warrior Cabinet ministers” who “don’t even understand that part of the reason we’re being hit so hard by this is because we are not drilling our own oil and gas thanks to their net-zero madness”. Badenoch has a second comment in the Daily Express, calling for a cut in fuel duty. Similarly, leader of the hard-right climate-sceptic Reform UK, Nigel Farage, writes in the Daily Telegraph that he wants to pay for lower fuel duty by cutting “lunatic green levies”.

MORE UK COMMENT 

• In an article not labelled as comment, Daily Telegraph industry writer Matt Oliver says energy secretary Ed Miliband is “wrong” to say that the war in Iran means the UK must “double down” on net-zero. 
• An editorial in the Daily Telegraph says: “The Government’s fuel duty plans must now be reconsidered.” 
• Jeremy Warner, assistant editor of the Daily Telegraph, says that a “lack of investment in energy storage has left the UK vulnerable to a fuel price shock”.
• There is “no case” for a UK “energy bailout” amid the Iran war, writes the chief business commentator at the Times, Alistair Osborne. 

An editorial in Nature Climate Change says that addressing climate overshoot – “the temporary crossing of climate targets before warming is reversed” – is “urgent” and requires “effective strategies, global collaboration of different stakeholders and fair governance systems to manage the unprecedented risks”. It notes: “Recent research shows that the 1.5C temperature threshold may have already been crossed in 2024, indicating that overshoot is closer than anticipated.” The editorial outlines considerations in dealing with this, concluding: “A discussion around managing overshoot requires consideration of what kind of legal and political reform is needed to guarantee sustainable climate action, to ensure a more just distribution of impacts and mitigation efforts, and so that future generations are not left with an unmanageable carbon debt.”

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Orla Dwyer, with contributions from Aruna Chandrasekhar, Henry Zhang and Anika Patel. It was edited by Simon Evans.

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