There is blanket coverage of the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, which has seen Israel target “Iran’s critical energy infrastructure at gas and petrochemical refineries” over the weekend, reports the New York Times. According to a statement from Iran’s oil ministry, Israeli drones had targeted a section of the South Pars gas field in Bushehr province, which is “one of the world’s largest gas fields and a critical part of Iran’s energy production”, the newspaper says. Iran is one of the world’s major energy producers and “has the second-largest gas reserves in the world and fourth-largest crude oil reserves”, it notes. One expert tells the newspaper that the attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure “will be a disaster because repairing them will be costly and take time”. Israel, meanwhile, has shut down production at its biggest gas field, “stopping supplies to import-dependent Egypt and raising concerns about fuel shortages there”, reports Bloomberg.

At present, the conflict has not affected Iran’s oil exports, says the Financial Times. But the Hill, Reuters, CNN and Axios all report on how oil prices rose by around 7% on Friday. In early trading this morning, prices rose by another 5-6%, says Bloomberg, with Brent crude increasing to $78.32 a barrel. One analyst tells CNBC that the “increase in oil prices thus far is driven more by fears than physical impacts”. Another says that “if there are no supply disruptions, oil prices should fall again”, the outlet notes. However, Semafor says that “prices could further spike…if Iran targets Saudi Arabia’s oil supplies or creates shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost 25% of total global oil consumption flows, with some experts predicting $100 oil per barrel”. The Economist says that “were Iran’s crude to be shut in, global supply would lose 1.7m barrels per day”. [Overall demand is around 100m barrels per day.] Bloomberg speaks to one analyst who suggests that, were oil supplies to be disrupted, US president Donald Trump would likely call on the OPEC+ alliance of oil-producing nations to “tap its considerable spare production capacity”. The Financial Times reports that Israel’s attack on Iran has placed the “OPEC+ cartel’s recent decision to increase crude production into the spotlight”. It says: “The Saudi Arabia-led producer group has surprised the oil market this year by fast-tracking the return of idled production even as crude prices fell. It has prompted speculation that the cartel was responding to White House pressure to boost output ahead of a confrontation with Iran.”

Wider reaction to the conflict sees multiple outlets consider the knock-on impacts of rising oil prices and potential supply disruption. Reuters reports that US energy secretary Chris Wright said on Friday he and his team were monitoring “any potential impacts to global energy supply”. Politico says that the conflict “may be shattering” Trump’s “pledge to slash oil prices for American consumers”. At an energy conference today, the head of Saudi oil giant Aramco said that the importance of oil and gas “can’t be understated” when conflicts occur, reports Reuters. According to the newswire, Amin Nasser “also said that experience had shown that new energy sources don’t replace the old, but added to the mix. He said the transition to net-zero emissions could cost up to $200tn, and renewable sources were not meeting current demand.” In interviews over the weekend, UK chancellor Rachel Reeves said that spiking oil prices were a “cause for concern”, reports the Daily Mail. Reeves told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme that the UK government would do “everything in [its] power” to protect people in the UK from the knock-on economic effects of the conflict, BBC News says. 

In related commentary, an editorial in today’s edition of the Daily Telegraph says: “The impact of a prolonged war hitting energy supplies just as the world economy is dealing with tariffs and falling output will be considerable, especially if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz.” In the Financial Times, economist and author Duncan Weldon writes that “while high uncertainty about future oil supplies can raise crude prices in the short term, unless those risks materialise, the global macroeconomic fallout is likely to be limited”. There is further reaction from newsletters and columnists, including Gillian Tett and Lex at the Financial Times, Clyde Russell and Ron Bousso at Reuters, Javier Blas at Bloomberg and the New York Times DealBook newsletter.

Last week’s UN ocean conference has been “heralded a success”, says BBC News, with “more countries ratifying a key treaty to protect marine life”. The “key aim” of the conference was to ensure that the High Seas Treaty was ratified by the 60 countries needed to bring it into force, the outlet explains. [The treaty governs the sustainable use and conservation of the areas of the ocean that lie outside of any single nation’s jurisdiction.] Prior to the conference last week – which brought together nearly 200 countries in Nice, France – only 27 had ratified the treaty, the article explains: “Over just a few days that figure jumped to 50 and a dozen more agreed [they] would ratify by the end of the year. The UK said it would begin the process before 2026.” The Economist says “the tally is now at 56, with at least 12 more ratifications expected over the next few months”. Speaking at a press conference on Friday, French oceans ambassador Olivier Poivre d’Arvor described this progress as a “considerable victory”, says Politico. It says he added: “It’s very difficult to work on oceans right now when the US have [sic] withdrawn from almost everything. But the Argentinian president helped a lot. China [promised to ratify]. Indonesia just ratified a few hours ago. So, we won.” Politico says that French Polynesia “stole the show” at the conference, “announcing the creation of the world’s largest marine protected area, highly or fully protecting around 1.1m km2 of its waters, teeming with tropical fish, sharks, rays, dolphins and 150 species of precious corals”. France also “pushed for a moratorium on deep-sea mining”, says the New York Times, “with four new countries pledging their support this week, bringing the total to 37 countries”. After five days of negotiations, the conference produced the “Nice Ocean Action Plan”, says Le Monde: “In a year dominated by the predatory ambitions of Donald Trump, the document has been bolstered by a declaration in which countries reaffirmed their ‘strong commitment to conserve and sustainably use’ the ocean, ‘adversely affected by climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution’.” The Observer is more downbeat in its coverage, reporting that the talks “concluded on Friday on a muted note, falling short of its headline goal of securing the 60 ratifications needed to enforce the High Seas treaty”. It adds: “Critics also claimed the conference failed to address fossil fuel emissions, deep sea mining and practices that may threaten the future of the ocean.” In an analysis piece, the Guardian says that “overall the mood was high, boosted by a surge of enthusiasm for protecting the world’s seas”. However, the summit also “highlighted how much is yet to be done”, it adds.

In other ocean news, BBC News reports on how the “race to mine metals for EV batteries” is threatening a “marine paradise” in Indonesia. 

French president Emmanuel Macron visited Greenland yesterday to carry a “message of solidarity and friendship” following threats by US president Donald Trump to take over the Arctic island, reports the Associated Press. Macron, who was visiting Greenland for the first time, said: “It means a lot to me…to convey a message of friendship and solidarity from France and the European Union to help this territory face the different challenges: economic development, education, as well as the consequences of climate change.” Criticising Trump’s overtures, Macron said “I don’t think that’s something to be done between allies”, the article reports. He added: “It’s important to show that Denmark and Europe are committed to this territory, which has very high strategic stakes and whose territorial integrity must be respected.” The six-hour visit also included discussions with Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen and Greenlandic prime minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen on “how to further enhance relations between the EU and Greenland when it comes to economic development, low-carbon energy transition and critical minerals”, the newswire says. The Guardian says that Macron “was also due to visit a glacier to see the effects of global heating”, while a “planned visit to a hydroelectric plant was cancelled”. The Times says that “the French are quick to point out the irony of Trump’s position” on annexing Greenland: “Although a sceptic on climate change, [Trump’s] appetite for Greenland has been whetted by predictions that it is likely to assume greater strategic importance as global warming opens new shipping routes through the Arctic, cutting journey times between the Atlantic and the Pacific.” The visit is also covered by the Washington Post, Reuters, BBC News, Bloomberg, CNN, Le Monde and the Los Angeles Times.

This year’s G7 summit gets underway today in Canada’s Rocky Mountains with a “shared mission” to “minimise any fireworks at a moment of combustible tensions”, says the Associated Press. With US president Donald Trump likely to be the centre of attention at the two-day talks, the article says: “Trump already has hit several dozen nations with severe tariffs that risk a global economic slowdown. There is little progress on settling the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and now a new and escalating conflict between Israel and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear programme. Add to all of that the problems of climate change, immigration, drug trafficking, new technologies such as artificial intelligence and China’s continued manufacturing superiority and chokehold on key supply chains.” There is no plan for a joint statement this year from the G7, the newswire says, describing the decision as “a sign that the Trump administration sees no need to build a shared consensus with fellow democracies if it views such a statement as contrary to its goals of new tariffs, more fossil fuel production and a Europe that is less dependent on the US military”. Bloomberg makes a similar point, noting: “Wary of opening new rifts with the US president, other G7 leaders won’t even try for a statement of unity on matters such as Ukraine or climate change.” The Financial Times Europe Express newsletter says the decision is a “deft move” by Mark Carney, Canada’s recently elected prime minister, which is “aimed at avoiding likely disagreements with Trump on issues such as climate change”. BBC News has “five things to watch” at the meeting, noting that “while there are no broad commitments expected on climate change, it is integrated into the agenda, a senior government official told a briefing this week, pointing to an effort to improve the international joint response to the growing global forest fire threat”. Separately, the Daily Telegraph’s energy editor Jonathan Leake says Carney has undergone a “conversion from eco warrior to oil and gas champion”.

China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) has unveiled a plan to “advance pilot hydrogen projects” with an aim of “enhance[ing] the production, infrastructure, and utilisation of hydrogen by 2035”, reported Energy Monitor. The Economic Information Daily, a newspaper under state news agency Xinhua, said there are two types of “pilots”, one is to “rely on projects to promote…technologies and key equipment”, and the other is to “rely on regional pilot projects to promote the establishment of a sound cross-departmental collaboration mechanism and management model for hydrogen energy”. 

Meanwhile, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has released a draft of “measures for emergency dispatch of cross-provincial and cross-regional electricity”, aiming to ensure “safety and supply during power system operations”, BJX News reports. China Environment News carries an article discussing how China’s “green electricity certificates” (GECs) can solve the problem of “increasing trading volume but declining prices”.

Elsewhere, China’s annual imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected to “fall between 6% and 11%”, declining for the first time in three years due to “weak industrial demand and strong domestic and piped gas supply”, Reuters reports. State-run newspaper China Daily reports that China has been “aggressively expanding its pumped hydro storage capacity”, adding 7.75 gigawatts (GW) in 2024. The total capacity topped 58 GW by the end of last year, adds the outlet. Reuters reports that global sales of electric vehicles (EVs) have increased by 24% year-on-year in May, with sales in China surpassing one million units in a single month for the first time this year. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) publishes an article under the title: “What are China’s solar storage companies doing to ensure survival amid Trump’s tariffs?”

Finally, state news agency Xinhua reports that tens of thousands of residents have been evacuated in China’s Hainan province as the first typhoon of the season, Wutip, approaches. The Guardian says temperatures rose as high as 46.8C in Xinjiang province. China’s meteorological authority “issued the first high temperature heatstroke alert for the year at the start of the week, issuing yellow alerts for large parts of the country”, adds the newspaper. 

The owner of the UK’s largest bioethanol plant has warned that its £450m facility in Saltend, Hull could close unless the government comes up with a rescue package for the industry within the next two weeks, reports the Times. Bioethanol makes up 10% of the standard grade of unleaded petrol in the UK as a way to “help to cut carbon emissions”, the newspaper explains. Following last month’s trade deal with the US, “the UK offered a 1.4bn litre tariff-free quota of bioethanol exports to US producers, equivalent to the entire annual demand in Britain, raising questions about the viability of the country’s domestic sector”, it continues. The Financial Times says the ultimatum comes “following an emergency meeting [last] week with the UK business secretary Jonathan Reynolds and transport secretary Heidi Alexander”. It adds: “The owners said unless the government tabled a package to save the industry within two weeks, they would open consultations about making the plant’s 160 workers redundant.” Meanwhile, energy minister Michael Shanks has said that there will be “announcements soon” on the future of the oil refinery at Grangemouth in Scotland, reports BBC News. He said the government was exploring a range of “exciting and viable” projects to secure a long-term transition for the site, the article notes. The Press Association also covers the quotes, noting that Shanks said more than 80 potential investors had come forward since the UK government pledged £200m for the site.

Elsewhere, in a story trailed on its frontpage, the Daily Telegraph reports that the UK’s electricity grid operator “will attempt to keep the country’s lights on without burning gas for the first time ever this summer”. The newspaper continues: “In a potential glimpse of the future power system, the National Energy System Operator (NESO) – which manages the network – confirmed it was looking at ‘potential opportunities’ for a short period of gas-free generation later this year. If successful, it would make Britain one of the few industrialised countries to have run its electricity system without burning gas domestically.” [See Carbon Brief’s coverage from last April on the NESO target for “zero carbon operation”.]

In other UK news, Richard Tice – the deputy leader of the hard-right, populist Reform UK – tells the Guardian his party would withdraw from the Paris Agreement. He also predicted that Labour would “back down” on its policies aimed at achieving net-zero, the newspaper says. At the same time, Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay has said that the Tories got it “wrong” when backing a net-zero goal for 2045 in Scotland and that his party would scrap the target if it won power in the country, reports the Press Association. A Guardian analysis piece looks into why the Tories and Reform are “calling net-zero policy into question”. Octopus Energy boss Greg Jackson speaks to the Times about regional electricity pricing. The Times also interviews former BP boss Lord Browne, who says he is still “optimistic” despite climate change. The Sun reports that this weekend’s trooping the colour flypast marking the King’s birthday “featured nine Red Arrow jets powered by sustainable aviation fuel”. Finally, the climate-sceptic Daily Telegraph reports on the “32-year-old nuclear scientist busting the net-zero myth”, how the UK’s “enemies could dim the sun and weaponise weather” and why Arnold Schwarzenegger says “net-zero is bogus”. [The final story reports on an interview Schwarzenegger gave to the Sunday Times, in which he says he “hates talking about climate change – ‘it’s a bullshit f**king name’ – so he came up with the phrase ‘terminate pollution’ instead because ‘everyone knows what that means’”.]

There is continued reaction to the UK government’s decision to fund a new nuclear plant at Sizewell in Suffolk. In the Times, business presenter Dominic O’Connell writes that “when it comes to nuclear power, the one thing the government cannot outsource is failure”. O’Connell discusses the funding model for the plant, which he says will see a levy on all energy bills of around £12 a year, noting: “That guarantee of future income will be the collateral [EDF] needs to borrow what it needs to build the plant.” He continues: “All of this will swing into action over the next six months. At the moment the government owns 85% of the Sizewell C company and EDF the rest. The final decision to proceed is expected at the Anglo-French summit next month. The government will then sell some of its shares to private investors. It is not clear how much will be auctioned, but most expect the sale of a 30 to 40% stake. That will pave the way for the borrowing phase; it will be one of the biggest-ever fundraisings for a UK infrastructure project, with tens of billions being sought.” If all were to “go wrong”, those private investors “will lose half their money if the losses go above a pre-agreed threshold”. Above that, he explains “the government steps in”. Bloomberg opinion columnist Lara Williams likens the rebuilding of the UK’s nuclear industry to assembling Ikea furniture: “The first Billy bookcase is a nightmare of fumbled screws and baffling instructions. The second goes a little smoother. The third is a breeze.” She continues: “There’s lots of reasons for the decline of nuclear in Britain, including a heap of cheap gas, but I’d also argue it’s partly because the nation didn’t commit to a fleet of Billy bookcases.” An editorial in the Observer says that the government’s support for Sizewell C and ”determination to keep investing in renewables signal a welcome willingness to take on the net-zero sceptics”. It adds: “Green energy investment is not a short-term solution to the UK’s absurdly high costs of energy, but climate change is a fact of life.”

Elsewhere, Sunday Times deputy business editor Oliver Gill writes that rescuing the UK’s car industry requires fixing the “woeful rollout of EV charging”. Also in the Sunday Times, data editor Tom Calver takes a look at falling petrol prices in the UK and notes that the decision by chancellor Rachel Reeves in her autumn budget last year to maintain a 5p cut in fuel duty “seemed an odd decision then and an even stranger one now”. Jeremy Warner, assistant editor of the Daily Telegraph, writes that the “big growth market of the moment” is in plug-in hybrids. Finally in UK comment, a pair of academics write in the Financial Times that company-level carbon reporting “urgently needs fixing”.

New research aims to “constrain” climate models by focusing on how well they simulate the imbalance of energy at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere. The imbalance between the net incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation from Earth is caused by the influence of human-caused greenhouse gases and aerosols. While this imbalance has strengthened over the period 2001-23, the researchers find that this trend is not reproduced by climate models that have a low climate sensitivity – a measure of how much the world would warm after a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Specifically, the study shows that the inability to reproduce the trend is a “robust feature” of models with a sensitivity of less than 2.5C.