The war in ​the Middle East is creating the “biggest oil supply disruption” in history, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said yesterday, reports Reuters. In its latest monthly oil market report, the IEA said global supply is expected to drop by 8m barrels per day in March – a volume equal to almost 8% of world demand, according to the newswire. This, it says, is largely due to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping channel along the Iranian coast where almost a fifth of oil supply flows through. The Financial Times, Politico and Times also cover the IEA’s update, which came a day after the energy organisation’s member countries announced they would release the largest volume of emergency oil reserves in history.

There is continued coverage of how the disruption is driving up costs of energy. CNN is among a slew of publications to note that Brent crude oil was trading at “around $100 a barrel” yesterday after Iran’s new leader allegedly said the Strait would “remain shut”. The Guardian reports on Transport & Environment analysis which finds that European drivers could pay an extra €220 (£190) a year at the pumps due to a surge in oil prices, alongside separate numbers from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit that estimates UK drivers will pay an extra £140 each year on fuel. EV drivers in the UK are now estimated to spend $1,000 less annually than petrol and diesel car drivers at the pump, up from £780 before oil prices jumped, says the article. 

Across the pond, the Times reports that the average price of petrol per gallon in the US is up 23% since the start of the war, with prices in California the highest in the nation. The Guardian is among a number of outlets to report how Donald Trump posted on social media yesterday that the US – as a major oil producer – would  “make a lot of money” when oil prices go up. It says that the rise in petrol prices poses a “political liability” for Trump ahead of the November midterm elections. Reuters covers pushback on the claim from Democratic lawmakers who said the costs were “hurting working Americans”. The Financial Times notes that petrol prices are now higher than any other time in Trump’s two terms in office. 

MORE ON OIL SHOCK

• The Guardian has a long-read explaining how leaders today could take lessons from European countries’ efforts to reduce their fossil-fuel dependency in the wake of the 1970s oil shock. 
• The Financial Times explains the “winners” and “many losers” of global oil shocks, noting that rising crude prices are “good in narrow financial terms for those who suck the stuff out of the ground and less good for heavy users of oil and gas”.
• The Guardian reports on data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air that shows Russia received €6bn (£5bn) in fossil fuel sales in the fortnight since the start of the Iran war. Sky News and the Financial Times also cover the analysis.
• CNN covers a statement from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard which warns it will set oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East “on fire” if Iranian energy infrastructure is attacked.
• The i newspaper reports on its frontpage that the UK military is “preparing to defend” oil tankers in the Middle East.

There is substantial coverage of how the energy crisis is impacting India. Reuters reports that Indian households are “rushing to buy electric induction stoves, draining stocks online and in stores”, amid fears of a potential cooking gas shortage tied to the Middle East conflict. Bloomberg notes the country is “turning to polluting fuels such as biomass, kerosene and fuel oil as war-led gas shortages weigh on households and industries across the country”.  The country, it explains, imports nearly 90% of its crude, half of its liquefied natural gas and two-thirds of its liquified petroleum gas (LPG), “most of which” comes from the Middle East and travels through the Strait of Hormuz. It says the blockage of the passage has resulted in “shortages have already affected supplies to hotels, restaurants and petrochemical plants”. BBC News notes that social media is “awash” with video clips showing queues outside cooking-gas dealers across the country. It says: “Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.” Writing in Bloomberg, columnist Andy Mukherjee says the “biggest immediate impact” in India has been on “dosa and dal makhani”.

MORE ON SOUTH ASIA

• The Times: “Will the war in Iran halt India’s rise as an economic powerhouse?”
• Reuters reports that officials in Nepal have announced it will ration cooking gas to make stocks last longer.

Bloomberg notes that the European Commission is considering “relaxing” carbon-permit supply rules and allowing more state aid as part of an emergency plan to cut spiking power prices. Citing anonymous sources “familiar with the matter”, the outlet reports that the commission is exploring whether to temporarily ease rules on granting free emissions permits to companies in its carbon market, as well as to allow lower grid fees and energy taxes. The outlet notes that the commission is to present options at a meeting in Brussels on 19 March. Reuters reports that eight countries –  Denmark, Finland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden – have “urged” the EU not to “dismantle or suspend” the emissions ​trading system (ETS), which ​requires power plants to buy permits to cover their CO2 emissions. Italy is among the countries calling on the EU to suspend its ETS, it says. Euractiv also reports on the calls from the “eight-strong alliance” which has argued the “emissions cap essential to Europe’s competitiveness”.

MORE ON EUROPE

• A European Commission spokesperson said yesterday that it sees “no immediate concerns” regarding the security of oil supplies, given that its top oil suppliers are Norway and the US, according to Reuters. 
• The New York Times has a long-read exploring how surging costs could impact factories in Germany.
• DW News: “Germany won’t return to nuclear power, chancellor says.”
• UK energy secretary Ed Miliband tells BBC News the government “will not tolerate” energy firms “profiteering” from the rising price of oil.
• UK energy regulator Ofgem has approved Tesla Energy Ventures – a unit of Elon Musk’s EV firm Tesla – as an electricity supplier, according to Reuters.
• In a story trailed on its frontpage, the Daily Telegraph notes that business groups have warned Miliband that they expect to face “surging” energy prices within weeks.
  

Scientists at the US Climate Prediction Center have projected a 62% chance that an ocean-heating El Niño will emerge during the northern hemisphere’s summer, with the likelihood increasing further in autumn, reports Bloomberg. The outlet notes that the phenomenon, which it explains has “far-reaching impacts” on global weather patterns, is “poised to add extra warmth to a planet that’s rapidly heating due to human-caused climate change”. In its coverage, NPR says that “the hottest years on record generally occur in years when El Niño is active” – a dynamic which played out in 2023 and 2024, the hottest years on record. NPR quotes US climate scientist Dr Daniel Swain saying: “Even though the evidence is still early, this could be a very significant event in 2026 and lingering into 2027.” The New York Times and Climate Brink newsletter also have the story.

China’s justice minister He Rong said on the sidelines of the “two sessions” that China will focus on addressing “involution” in sectors such as solar panels and electric vehicles (EVs) through legislation in 2026, reports state news agency Xinhua. China’s foreign ministry said yesterday that overcapacity is a “false proposition” and China opposes using it as a “pretext for political manipulation” in response to the US’s trade probe, according to another Xinhua article. State-run newspaper China Daily reports that “foreign trade will remain [the] growth engine” of the economy. Zheng Changzhong, a professor at Fudan University, writes in the Shanghai-based outlet the Paper that green transition is not about “simply phasing out” traditional industries, but about transforming them fundamentally. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post cites Chinese economist Huang Yiping, saying that China’s green technology industries are among the “hardest hit by excess capacity”, fuelling “dumping accusations from trade partners”. The outlet also quotes Zhu Haijiu, professor at Zhejiang Gongshang University, saying that industrial policy also brings “certain costs tended to be obscured amid headline successes”.

China’s top legislation, the National People’s Congress, has voted to adopt the country’s “ecological and environmental code”, reports Xinhua. An article in People’s Daily under the byline Jin Xuan, which denotes it was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), says that China will continue to reduce carbon emissions in key industries, cutting around 400m tonnes of CO2 emissions. A Xinhua comment says that China’s 15th “five-year plan” creates “substantial market opportunities for green technology cooperation”, adding that China acts as a “catalyst for global green initiatives”. An editorial by the state-supporting newspaper Global Times says that China “firmly fulfils” its commitment to addressing climate change, and has become a reliable “constant” in the world, offsetting the “variables” of global turbulence. An article by Xinhua says that “security”, “green” and “innovation” are three dimensions of building a “strong energy nation” for China.

MORE ON CHINA

• China ordered a ban on exports of gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel in March to prepare for a potential fuel shortage amid the war in Iran, reports Reuters.
• China’s forest and grassland coverage exceeded 56% in 2025, says Xinhua.
• Chinese vice-premier Zhang Guoqing called for global cooperation on nuclear energy at the second Nuclear Energy Summit, according to People’s Daily.
• “Negative and high electricity prices will become the norm” during the next five years, and new energy will bear “price risks” as it fully enters the market, says BJX News.
• PV magazine reports that China has deployed its first “urban underground vanadium flow battery system” amid “tighter lithium-ion storage regulations”.

In an editorial that makes the frontpage, the Economist writes the world is entering a “new era of energy insecurity”. It notes that the world is less dependent on oil than during a pair of oil crises in the 1970s, with the fuel now used mainly to power transport and make petrochemicals. But the “evolution” away from using oil for electricity is “double-edged”, it says: “Today’s oil demand is stubborn, so prices have to rise more for a given disruption of supply. And this one is extreme: the loss of supply is greater than in either 1970s shock.” It continues that businesses now face a “new risk premium” and policymakers “painful decisions”. The piece makes no mention of renewables, but speculates that “high [oil] prices” should “induce more supply outside of the Middle East”. The article concludes: “It is difficult to predict how this crisis ends. But even if countries get policy right, it is already clear that the war has made the world economy less prosperous, more volatile and harder to govern.”

In an editorial, the Guardian warns that the world’s “poorest and most vulnerable” will be the “worst hit” by the war in Iran. It notes that the conflict has created a “new humanitarian crisis”, with “millions” displaced in Iran and Lebanon and food prices surging in Gaza. It continues: “The oil shock doesn’t just mean higher costs for transporting relief, but also, for example, running generators for clinics. Local food production will also be hit: around half of Sudan’s fertiliser comes from the Middle East.” For “millions”, it says, the economic shock may not merely mean “straitened circulmstances but the difference between life and death”.

MORE GLOBAL COMMENT

• In the Bulwark newsletter, journalist Catherine Rampell argues that “sustained oil disruption could end up shattering the world’s attempts to curb climate change” – largely because it would “screw up” Europe’s “ambitious” climate plans.
• In Forbes, Margo T Oge – formerly a director at the US Environmental Protection Agency – says the Iran war is a reminder how electric vehicles can “protect American consumers” from price shocks.
• A Guardian editorial argues that the Green party’s recent victory in a German by-election is evidence the national government is “alienating voters in the same way as other centrist administrations”.
• For the Washington Post, Bill Barr – attorney general during the George W Bush administration – rails against the inclusion of a chapter on climate science written by people “deeply involved in climate-litigation” in the “reference manual on scientific evidence” for federal courts.

In the Guardian, journalist and campaigner George Monbiot hits out at claims that energy security will improve and bills will fall if “we abandon net-zero policies, ditch renewables and reinvest in North Sea gas”. He says that these claims – made  by “rightwing politicians, Tufton Street junktanks and billionaire press” – are “not just a little bit wrong”, but the “exact opposite of truth”. He notes that the price of gas is set on international markets; that the UK’s reserves are “especially difficult and expensive to extract” and that the industry depends on a “generous” tax regime. He also points to Carbon Brief analysis that estimates “‘green levies” account for just a small fraction of the increases to prices of UK energy bills. According to Monbiot, owners of newspapers and politicians are behind what he dubs an “epidemic of idiocy” around energy costs. He concludes: “Renewables are highly competitive and, for this reason, low-profit. Fossil fuels are uncompetitive and high profit. Media proprietors, like almost all billionaires and hectomillionaires, gain exceedingly by investing in them. If it is sometimes hard to tell the difference between fossil-fuel lobbyists and the billionaire press, this is because there isn’t one.” 

MORE UK COMMENT

• In the Times, columnist Emma Duncan attacks Ed Miliband and argues the government’s commitment to clean energy is making the UK “more vulnerable”.
• An editorial in the Sun also attacks Miliband, arguing that his “ban on drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea means we must spend billions importing them”. 
• The Economist: “The Green Party’s economic plans are Corbynism on steroids.”

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Cecilia Keating, with contributions from Henry Zhang and Anika Patel. It was edited by Robert McSweeney.

Subscribe for free.