Applications for asylum in the European Union could almost treble by the end of the century if global warming continues at its present pace, according to a new study published in Science. The Times reports: “Since 2015 more than 2.5 million people have applied for asylum in the European Union and 11,000 are thought to have drowned while attempting to cross the Mediterranean. Wolfram Schlenker and Anouch Missirian, of Columbia University in New York, found that movement was closely linked to weather in the migrants’ home countries.” The study is widely covered elsewhere. The Guardian says: “The number of migrants attempting to settle in Europe each year will triple by the end of the century based on current climate trends alone, independent of other political and economic factors, according to the research. Even if efforts to curb global warming are successful, the number of applications for asylum could rise by a quarter, the authors predict.” Reuters says that the study has “criticised by some other researchers as exaggerated”, adding that the views of Jan Selby, a professor of international relations at the University of Sussex, who has long been critical of linking migration to climate change: “The evidence so far on the impacts of climate change on migration is still quite weak…A sudden climatic shock may destroy a crop; a gradual increase in temperature over decades would not (instead farmers would change crops, etc). We simply can’t extrapolate from one to the other.” The Washington Post describes the study as “provocative” in its headline, adding that the study has “reawakened a fraught debate over one of the more contested, and potentially devastating, consequences of a warming climate”. The New York Times, Associated Press and Independent are among the other publications covering the story.

The Anglo-Dutch oil company Shell will soon be selling electricity and gas direct to householders in the UK for the first time after buying one of the county’s biggest energy suppliers, First Utility. The Guardian says that that “acquisition of the largest supplier outside of the ‘big six’ compounds a year of upheaval in the UK energy market, which is already being transformed by the proposed merger of Npower and SSE and the imposition of price caps”. The Daily Telegraph says “Shell’s European arm will snap up First Utility for an undisclosed sum, giving the oil major a route into the domestic energy supply market in the UK and Germany, as it begins to shift towards clean electricity and electric vehicles”. The Times notes that “Shell does not currently supply energy directly to households anywhere in the world”. The Financial Times says “the deal value was not disclosed. But the energy major’s entrance to the market comes at a challenging time, as many of the biggest suppliers face the threat of a government-mandated price cap, while there are now some 60 companies in the market vying for customers.”

Electricity generation from renewable energy has reached a “record high”, according to new government statistics. The third quarter of 2017 saw the share of electricity generated from renewable sources increase by nearly 5% from the same period last year, reaching 30%. Low-carbon electricity’s share of generation increased to the highest ever point of 54.4%, particularly due to a upsurge in wind energy. The Independent says: “The results are outlined in the government’s latest Energy Trends report. With this year’s slight decrease in the contribution of nuclear power, the boost in low-carbon electricity came largely from recent investment in wind farms and to a lesser extent solar energy.” Elsewhere, the Daily Express and the Daily Mail both report that the average CO2 tailpipe emissions from a new car sold in the UK has risen for the first time in 14 years due to the move away from diesel.

The global average temperature will rise again next year, but is unlikely to set a new record due to the cooling effect from the La Nina weather phenomenon in the Pacific, the Met Office said yesterday. The global average temperature rise for 2018 is forecast to be between 0.88C and 1.12C above the pre-industrial average period 1850–1900. The Daily Mail also covers the story, adding that “volcanic eruptions could help cool down the planet next year”.

It is the season for end-of-year reviews (be sure not to miss Carbon Brief’s offering) and James Murray plays Scrooge before quoting Nobel laureates: “If global greenhouse gas emissions really are rising again, if Trump’s world view does become normalised, if the bursting of the carbon bubble prompts petro-states to lash out in defence of their diminishing power, then there is no denying the outlook could get bleak, and fast. But then again, as Bob Dylan once sang, “they say the darkest hour is right before the dawn”. As a New Year awaits the job of green businesses is to nurture their natural optimism, face down their opponents, and redouble efforts to build a genuinely sustainable economy as quickly as possible. A brighter 2018 is not just possible, it’s essential.” Elsewhere, DesmogUK‘s review looks back at the “11 Faces of 2017”, which includes the Mail on Sunday’s David Rose who was censured by the UK’s press complaints body IPSO for a “significantly misleading” article about climate change. Over on the CICERO website, climate scientist Glen Peters reveals what “sparked his interest in 2017” and what will “raise his eyebrow in 2018”: “My new year’s wish? That we focus more on polices that reduce emissions, not just policies that subsidise new technologies. The latter is needed, but the former is essential. For sure, 2018 will be a big year for climate nerds!”

Pinchbeck, the executive director of the trade body Renewable UK, writes in the Times that “in this period of economic uncertainty, I would still bet the political and economic house on a global renewables transition”. She adds: “The Scottish government’s commitment to maximising the benefits of renewables was confirmed on Wednesday with the publication of its energy strategy. The goal is clear: half of all energy — heat, transport and electricity — will come from renewables by the end of the next decade. Change is upon us, and it will not be embraced by everyone, but there is no turning back to a dependence on fossil fuels. We are proud that Scottish businesses are choosing to lead the way in the transition.”

The Guardian carries an obituary of Prof Keith Briffa, an influential climate scientist based for four decades at the University of East Anglia’s climatic research unit. Atkinson, Briffa’s friend and colleague, explains the significance of his work: “His scientific investigations ranged widely but his most influential and sustained contributions lay in decoding the complex climatic signals encrypted by annual tree rings and thereby positioning the science of dendro-climatology on rigorously tested foundations. His methods were adopted by researchers worldwide and this led to the growth of a global network of tree-ring data, providing estimates of annual temperature stretching back centuries and in many cases millennia before modern instrumental records began. Collective international efforts in which Keith played a leading role eventually enabled the average temperature of the Earth to be estimated on an annual basis over the past 1,000 years. This showed that modern global warming has exceeded any of the natural variations in that time.”

ECIU’s Matt Finch is not the first person to spot a problem with the switch from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles – the headache is will cause to the Treasury: “It is encouraging the uptake of zero carbon vehicles; but the more zero-carbon vehicles on our roads, the less money it will receive…So the big questions are: how quickly will electric vehicles displace combustion engine vehicles? And how can the Treasury replace the future missing fuel duties?…We have less than a decade to get a replacement plan in place. And if we’re going to have a new system, we may as well try and address some of the other problems currently associated with cars: namely air pollution and congestion.” Road pricing could be the answer, he says.

The number of applications for asylum in the European Union changes with fluctuations in temperature, a new study suggests. Analysing asylum applications from 103 “source” countries and records of weather during the maize-growing season for 2000-14, the researchers find applications increased as average temperatures deviated away from an “optimal” 20C. Keeping all other factors constant, the researchers project that asylum applications by the end of the century could increase by 28% under an intermediate emissions scenario (RCP4.5) and by 188% if emissions continue unabated (RCP 8.5).