Daily Briefing |
TODAY'S CLIMATE AND ENERGY HEADLINES
Expert analysis direct to your inbox.
Every weekday morning, in time for your morning coffee, Carbon Brief sends out a free email known as the “Daily Briefing” to thousands of subscribers around the world. The email is a digest of the past 24 hours of media coverage related to climate change and energy, as well as our pick of the key studies published in peer-reviewed journals.
Sign up here.
Today's climate and energy headlines:
- Oil prices will reach $70 a barrel by 2020, says Opec
- Climate change: World 'faces food shortages and mass migration' caused by global warming
- UK awash with oil as tankers forced to turn around
- 100,000 homes at risk of flooding
- Flurry of lawsuits for Obama climate rules
- National climate ambition must match international targets
- How low gas prices could kill coal in Europe
- How is adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability research engaging with gender?
- Animal behaviour shapes the ecological effects of ocean acidification and warming
News.
OPEC, the oil-producing group, said in its World Oil Outlook report that oil prices could reach $70 a barrel by 2020, with prices starting to rise due to higher exploration costs. Prices have now dropped to an 11-year low of $37 a barrel. However, the report says that oil will not reach the level of $100 a barrel until 2040 at the earliest, and that the financial sector is feeling the strain, reports the Financial Times. It also reports that OPEC has lowered its long-term estimates for oil demand, with energy efficiency, carbon taxes and slower economic growth all impacting how much oil is expected to be needed in the future.
The Independent writes up comments made by the Michel Jarraud, the outgoing secretary-general of the World Meteorological Oganization, to Carbon Brief in an interview published earlier this week. The article focuses on the threat of food shortages and mass migration due to dwindling water supplies. You can read the full interview on the Carbon Brief website.
Record high December temperatures have left the UK with a glut of oil. Stocks are at their highest level for five years, with Europe-bound fuel tankers being forced into mid-Atlantic U-turns as demand for heating has dropped. Oil stocks in the UK have risen to almost 15m tonnes, 9% above what they were this time last year, according to figures released by the Department for Energy and Climate Change.
A detailed survey of Scotland has revealed that more than 100,000 homes are at risk of flooding, as climate change is expected to exacerbate the frequency and severity of floods in the country. Around 60,000 homes are at risk from river flooding, 28,000 from coastal flooding and 14,000 from surface water run-off. The report said that older people and those in poor health are likely to be the worst affected by extreme weather.
There has been a flurry of legal challenges to Obama’s climate change rules for power plants ahead of the deadline on Tuesday, reports The Hill. At least 10 parties filed lawsuits in a DC court on Tuesday to challenge the EPA’s new rules. Meanwhile, The Hill also reports that a group of 27 states also attempting to challenge the rules has warned that it is already affecting the energy markets, forcing states to prepare for implementation and causing “irreparable harm”, even though compliance plans aren’t due until 2018.
Comment.
The UN’s climate deal signed in Paris lacks credibility because it does not reflect the actual science of how quickly emissions need to be reduced in order to limit global temperature rise to 1.5C, nor does it recognise the requirement for negative emissions, writes CICERO’s Steffan Kallbekken. This is a “general recipe” for temperatures of between 2C and 3C, he says, and offers little guidance for future pledges. Although there is a process to ramp up ambition in the future, it is possible that participation could decline, such as with the Kyoto Protocol, he adds.
Low gas prices could deliver another blow to coal across Europe, writes Sandbag’s policy analyst Dave Jones. Gas prices are currently falling faster than coal. The LNG industry has over built capacity, and now faces a huge gas glut until 2020, he writes — this will eat into coal’s share of electricity. Also, the lower price means that fewer gas power stations are likely to be mothballed, while a number will be returned to service.
Science.
There’s an increasing body of literature focusing on climate change and gender, but is it more than just tokenistic? This is the question posed by a new study that examines engagement with gender in adaptation, resilience and vulnerability research. Looking at 123 studies published since 2006, t finds there is an equal number of studies with high, medium and low engagement and highlights sub-saharan Africa as currently showing particularly high levels of engagement with female experiences.
A new study reviews the literature on ocean acidification and how it affects the behaviour and community interaction of marine animals. To date, most studies have looked at physiological changes rather than behavioural ones, the study notes, or are restricted to single species, life phases or stressors. This makes for an incomplete understanding of how biological communities are affected