Oil prices have surged over the $100-a-barrel threshold for the first time in almost four years, says the Financial Times, as “traders bet widening conflict in the Middle East would lead to weeks-long supply disruptions”. The newspaper adds: “Traders warned that the oil sector was facing one of its greatest ever challenges, with Iran’s attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz affecting production in countries responsible for about a quarter of global crude supply.” The Times says: “The widening conflict across the Middle East has sent the price of Brent crude to within touch of $120 a barrel for the first time since 2022…The dollar rose against a basket of currencies as investors expected higher energy prices to stoke inflation. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, the American investment bank, said the price could exceed the peak of $146 set in 2008 if the flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz did not start to recover before the end of the month.”

Meanwhile, the Financial Times reports that “G7 finance ministers will discuss a possible joint release of petroleum from reserves co-ordinated by the International Energy Agency, in an emergency meeting on Monday aimed at tackling the surge in oil prices”. It adds: “The meeting comes as US president Donald Trump faces pressure to halt the steep rise in the crude oil price since the start of the war. The average US petrol price rose to $3.45 a gallon by Sunday, from $2.98 a gallon a week ago, and is destined to go higher unless Trump can reverse the trend. The increase in oil prices over the past week has triggered global fallout, threatening an inflationary surge that could do lasting damage to economic growth across the world. China, India, South Korea, Japan, Germany, Italy and Spain are among the biggest importers of crude, leaving them heavily exposed to price shocks.”

Reuters has a summary of “governments’ actions in response to oil price surge”. The Independent reports: “Trump says oil spike is small price to pay for ‘safety and peace’ as energy chief reassures Americans that pain at gas pump will last ‘weeks…not months’.” Reuters says that the EU is “examining energy ‌taxes, network charges and carbon costs as possible areas for short-term measures to ease pressure on industries hit by high energy prices, a document seen by Reuters showed”. Politico reports: “At an emergency meeting of commissioners on Friday as energy prices soar, Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s top team sought to build support for their energy strategy, which includes replacing imported oil and gas with homegrown green energy.” 

Reuters reports that the war in Iran has fuelled a “significant bump” ​in demand for Russian oil and gas, the Kremlin said on Friday, boosting exports which have been battered by sanctions linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine. The newswire adds: “The Russian oil, which was selling at a ​discount of $10 to $13 before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on 28 February, is now commanding a premium of $4-5 over Brent upon delivery ⁠to India in March or early April.” Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas lists the “oil pipelines that could decide the Iran war”. A separate Bloomberg article reports that “Germany is seeing unusually strong solar power output in March, helping to cap electricity prices even as the conflict in the Middle East drives up the cost of energy worldwide”. The Financial Times carries an article under the headline: “Middle East war strengthens case for renewables, say clean energy experts.”

Citing diplomatic sources, Reuters reports that China is “in talks with Iran to allow crude oil and Qatari liquefied natural gas vessels safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz”. The newswire also reports that Bangladesh has “imposed daily limits on fuel sales after panic buying”, while South Korea says it will “cap ‌domestic fuel prices for the first time in nearly 30 years to contain a spike in prices”.

MORE ON ENERGY CRISIS

• The Independent: “Iran war sends shockwaves through African fuel market and economies.”
• Bloomberg reports that India has raised prices for its most widely used cooking gas for the first time in almost a year due to the crisis.
• The Independent: “Oil built the Persian Gulf. Desalinated water keeps it alive. War could threaten both.”
• The Financial Times: “Amid European energy fears, coal creeps back into favour.”
• Reuters: “Japan should use nuclear plants to offset Iran crisis, opposition party head says.”

Many outlets cover a new study published on Friday in Geophysical Research Letters that, according to the Guardian, reveals that global warming is “occurring more rapidly with the heating rate almost doubling”. The newspaper adds: “It found global heating accelerated from a steady rate of less than 0.2C per decade between 1970 and 2015 to about 0.35C per decade over the past 10 years. The rate is higher than scientists have seen since they started systematically taking the Earth’s temperature in 1880.” Bloomberg notes that the authors say this the “first statistically significant evidence of an acceleration of global warming”. CNN begins its article: “Is the world getting hotter, faster? It’s a big question which has been puzzling and dividing scientists for years. A new paper says it has the answer, and it’s not good news.” Nature notes continuing dissent among some scientists: “Not everyone agrees with the latest estimate of a rate of 0.35C per decade. Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather at Berkeley Earth [and Carbon Brief’s contributing science writer]…says the authors’ methods for removing natural fluctuations are ‘imperfect and will leave some remaining effects’. Robert Rohde, chief scientist at Berkeley Earth, says he estimates that the current warming rate is more like 0.30C per decade.” New Scientist and the Daily Mail are among other outlets covering the study. Carbon Brief also has a detailed summary of the study’s findings.

China has “downplay[ed]” the development of solar energy in the draft of its 15th “five-year plan”, with no specific target for solar installations by 2030 and only “few and far between” mentions of the industry, reports Bloomberg. The outlet says that, instead, the country focuses more on other initiatives that support energy transition, while setting the goal of “doubling offshore wind power capacity” and targets for nuclear and pumped hydro. The “absence” of solar energy does not signify a “rejection”, but rather signals a “strategic shift”, according to energy news outlet International Energy Net. The outlet says that a series of plans, such as the construction of zero-carbon industrial parks and the cultivation of hydrogen energy and green fuels, all provide “core guidance” for the future development of the solar industry. State news agency Xinhua publishes the list of 109 major projects outlined in China’s plan, including seven projects to build a new energy system. In addition, green hydrogen has been included as a major project for “cultivating and developing new industries and new tracks”, says the newswire. Bloomberg adds that “China is maintaining the pressure on its nuclear power giants to deliver more reactors with an ambitious new target, despite a string of misses in recent years”. [See Carbon Brief’s detailed Q&A on “What does China’s 15th ‘five-year plan’ mean for climate change?”]

While participating in the deliberation of the Jiangsu delegation on the sidelines of the “two sessions”, Chinese president Xi Jinping has called local authorities to “study new situations and solve new problems” and remove “institutional and structural barriers” that constrain the “new quality productive forces”, according to state news agency Xinhua. The party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily carried an article under the byline Jin Sheping – used to signal the thoughts of party leadership on economic matters – stating that the growth target of 4.5% to 5% is a goal that considers both “domestic economic operations and changes in the external environment”. An editorial by the state-supporting Global Times says the target “firmly” shifts development toward green transformation. Another Xinhua article says that China will continue to contribute strength to “global sustainable development” through “firm actions”. There is also ongoing analysis of China’s new five-year plan and government work report in the South China Morning Post, Financial Times, Bloomberg, Climate Home News, Jiemian, China Daily, Business Green and Table Briefings.

MORE ON CHINA

• An article by Xinhua says that the inclusion of a “separate section on green and low-carbon development” in China’s environmental code is an “innovation”.
• The NDRC said that six “emerging pillar industries”, including “new types of energy storage”, will surpass 10tn yuan ($1.5tn) in 2030, reports Xinhua.
• Chinese representative to the UN, Fu Cong, has called for full respect for “national sovereignty over natural resources”, reports Xinhua.
• Caixin reports that China’s exports of power equipment rose 26% to $37bn in 2025 as emerging countries “accelerate investments” in electricity infrastructure.
• China Development Bank has issued 12bn yuan ($1.7bn) in green financial bonds to support areas such as the green upgrading of infrastructure, according to Xinhua.
• Ken Silverstein in Forbes: ”China’s green leap: an industrial strategy leaving the west behind.”

The Guardian highlights the views of Prof Tim Lang of City St George’s, University of London, a “leading expert on food policy”, who argues that the UK government should be “stockpiling food…as it is not prepared for climate shocks or wars that could cause the population to starve”. Lang adds that the UK is producing far less food than it needs to feed itself and, as a “small island that relies on a few large companies to feed its giant population, it is particularly vulnerable to shocks”. Speaking at the National Farmers’ Union conference in Birmingham, he said: “We’re not thinking about this adequately. We’re ducking it.” The article adds: “Other countries have emergency stockpiles in case of war, food contamination or climate shocks. Switzerland still has a stockpile sufficient to feed its entire population for three months and is increasing it to a year. The UK government’s advice to households is to have three days’ worth of food in their cupboards.” 

Separately, the Financial Times reports: “UK arable farmers will face a ‘cash crisis’ this summer when they are forced to fork out for more expensive fertiliser as the US-Israeli campaign against Iran restricts the global supply of raw materials to help grow crops. Farmers who grow grains are already under financial pressure following two consecutive years of poor harvests and a five-year low wheat price.”

MORE ON UK

• The Daily Telegraph: “Britain has as little as two days of gas stored up, raising fears of a potential crisis as supplies from the Middle East dry up.” The Times quotes the government saying that this storage figure is “categorically untrue”.
• Relatedly, the Times says that “the UK is paying the highest price in Europe [for fossil gas] – equivalent to 6% more than its neighbours – with analysts blaming the crunch in reserves.”
• The Times: “Stellantis is to go ahead with a £50m investment in Ellesmere Port for a new assembly line to build electric Vauxhall Vivaros and other midsize zero-emission vans from next year.”
• The Daily Telegraph covers the findings of a right-leaning lobby group which claims that “Britain’s failed nuclear ambitions have left UK households paying 40% more for power than the French”.

“At least 23 people have been killed in Nairobi after heavy rain overnight caused severe flooding in Kenya’s capital city,” says BBC News, adding: “Police said about 30 people had been rescued but many others drowned after being swept into rivers – some have been electrocuted.” Reuters says: “Scientists say global warming ​is worsening floods and ​droughts across east ⁠Africa by concentrating rainfall into shorter, more intense bursts. A 2024 World Weather Attribution study found climate change had made devastating rains in ​the region twice as likely as before.”

MORE ON EXTREME WEATHER

• At least six people have died and more than a dozen others injured after tornadoes struck Michigan and Oklahoma in severe storms that swept across parts of the US, reports BBC News.
• The Times: “Crocodiles ‘absolutely everywhere’ after Australia floods.”

The Guardian reports that, “by rolling back a bedrock climate legal determination, the Trump administration has undercut its attacks on a groundbreaking state climate accountability law, green groups have argued in court”. The newspaper quotes Kate Sinding Daly, senior vice-president for law and policy at the environmental legal not-for-profit Conservation Law Foundation: “They’re trying to talk out of both sides of their mouths.”

MORE ON US

• Politico has an article about Montana Republican Tim Sheehy: “Senator mocked ‘green energy crap.’ His house runs on it.”
• Times Union: “Texas is lapping New York in building renewable energy. Here’s why.”
• Politico: “The New York governor Kathy Hochul is pushing for changes to the state’s landmark climate law because of affordability concerns, reflecting a national clash between high energy prices and environmental goals.”

In the Financial Times, European economics commentator Martin Sandbu writes: “The war on Iran has again exposed the EU’s impotence, not just over world affairs but over its own economic prospects. Soaring energy costs – the European natural gas price has doubled from recent lows – will be on EU leaders’ minds when they gather later this month…It should not take war in the Middle East to remind Europe how dangerous it is for a region woefully lacking in hydrocarbon reserves to depend on outside fossil fuel supplies…Yet it did not take long for the political momentum behind decarbonising Europe’s energy system to be replaced by lobbying against carbon-related regulation.” He concludes: “The obvious conclusion is that decarbonising Europe’s energy system is both more necessary and more achievable than previously thought. Instead, leaders seem tempted to pull back from that task in a misguided effort to protect the economy – they tend to listen more to incumbent companies than to their challengers…The confidence to make the investments that hasten the transition requires firm political leadership. Or Europe will make the same mistake all over again.”

MORE IN COMMENT

• Daniel Yergin in the Financial Times: “Is the nightmare scenario for global energy here?”
• Ed Conway in the Sunday Times asks if this is the “beginning of the worst gas crisis the world has seen?”
• The Lex column in the Financial Times: “Amid European energy fears, coal creeps back into favour.”
• Bloomberg columnist Mark Gongloff argues that the home insurance costs in the US are rising so fast that “desperate people are turning socialist”.
• In the climate-sceptic comment pages of the Wall Street Journal, Allysia Finley – a member of the newspaper’s editorial board – writes: “How America’s oil and gas dominance has weakened Iran. The left called climate change a threat to national security. The real threat was the climate agenda.”

An editorial in the Guardian responds to the news from China last week that the world’s biggest car seller, BYD, unveiled a new battery giving its latest electric models more than 600 miles of range: “Remarkably, the Chinese motor-maker said 250 miles of range could be injected into its new batteries in just five minutes. If true, the last remaining advantages of petrol cars – long range and quick refuelling – are beginning to disappear. But such technology requires megawatt charging points…China is moving fast, planning thousands of megawatt charging stations within two years. Britain, by contrast, would struggle to support such a network today. Without upgrades to substations and local networks, the system could not handle the power spikes created by ultra-fast EV charging…Britain now faces a choice: rebuild the capacity to coordinate the grid – or watch technologies like BYD’s arrive elsewhere.”

MORE UK COMMENT

• An editorial in the climate-sceptic Daily Mail claims the “eco-lunacy of energy secretary Ed Miliband is now a danger to national security”, adding: “He has banned new licences for North Sea oil and gas in pursuit of his net-zero dreams, introduced punitive taxes on the sector and stifled investment.”
• Simon French, chief economist at the investment bank Panmure Liberum, in the Times: “Now is not the time to be rationing North Sea oil and gas.”
• Tim Leunig, chief economist at the innovation agency Nesta, in the Observer: “Energy security rests not with the US but in the North Sea.”
• Columnist Iain Macwhirter in the Times: “The Iran war shows why North Sea oil is an absolute necessity.”
• Journalist and author John Lanchester in the Guardian focuses on the “truth about the generation gap” in the UK concluding that “there’s one other factor, the most troubling of all, in the differences between generational prospects – climate change”.

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Leo Hickman, with contributions from Henry Zhang and Anika Patel. It was edited by Robert McSweeney.

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